Gian Gentile

The Four Questions the U.S. Military Should Be Asking About Operation Swords of Iron

The war in Gaza, much like previous Israeli wars, will likely yield a host of lessons for American military planners. It's not too early to identify the right questions to be asking as the conflict unfolds.

Negotiating with Russia Is Still a Bad Idea

Since the very outset of Russia's war against Ukraine, there have been calls for the United States to negotiate with Russia. As the war has dragged on, the rationale for negotiations has morphed with each phase. Once you scratch below the surface, however, the case for negotiating with Russia quickly falls apart.

Why the United States Still Needs Ground Forces in Europe

The bulked-up U.S. presence in Europe will remain necessary for at least three to five years, for at least three reasons: to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty, to sustain U.S. commitments to NATO, and to encourage the development of partner nation capabilities that will eventually enable greater burden-sharing among allies.

A Winnable War

Many commentators have likened the current Russia-Ukraine war to the Western Front of World War I. A better historical precedent to understand the current fighting in Ukraine can be found in the U.S. Army's experience fighting against Nazi forces in the hedgerows of Normandy in France in the summer of 1944.

How Not to Help Ukraine

Good strategy involves clearly defining your objectives (ends), developing practical methods to accomplish them (ways), and then allocating sufficient resources (means) to turn these objectives and methods into reality. The debate over congressional support for Ukraine aid largely revolves around means. But what of the other two legs of the strategic triad?

How Might Ukraine's Counteroffensive End, and What Comes After?

Ukraine may soon launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces entrenched in eastern and southern Ukraine. We consider three ways this counteroffensive might end and their implications for the future.

America's Dangerous Short War Fixation

Americans have long been fixated on the idea of the short, decisive war. And the United States' adversaries bank on Washington's strategic impatience. If the United States' objective is to win, the only thing worse than fighting a long war may be thinking it's possible to avoid one.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

Support to Ukraine Continues to Be for America First

Why should the United States spend tens of billions of dollars on a war half a world away? Because it's in America's economic and strategic interests.

A Tale of Two Wars and the Pitfalls of Success

Russia's war in Ukraine once again poses questions about how the United States prepares for conflict—not only which weapons it buys, but also how it envisions great-power wars in the 21st century. If the United States does learn the lessons of this war, then it may secure the U.S. military's edge for decades to come.

Appreciating U.S. Ground Force Contributions to Operation Inherent Resolve

Defeating ISIS hinged on a ground fight, requiring the grueling liberation of territory kilometer by kilometer. While Iraqi forces bore the brunt of frontline fighting, U.S. forces were also engaged in on-the-ground combat operations that hastened the defeat of ISIS. Appreciating such contributions will be necessary to distill the right lessons so that we might correctly apply them to future irregular warfare.

The Myth of America's Ukraine Fatigue

Perceptions that the United States has “Ukraine fatigue” may be more myth than reality. It could be years before any declines in the American public's support for Ukraine actually result in a change of policy.

What's the Harm in Talking to Russia? A Lot, Actually

Despite the way it is commonly portrayed, diplomacy is not intrinsically and always good, nor is it cost-free. In the Ukraine conflict, the problems with a push for diplomacy are especially apparent. The likely benefits of negotiations are minimal, and the prospective costs could be significant.

'Wonder Weapons' Will Not Win Russia's War

With its army increasingly in shambles, Russia has turned to attacking Ukraine's civilian infrastructure with Iranian-made drones in an effort to destroy Ukrainians' will to fight. These tactics will inflict pain on the Ukrainian population, but if history is any guide, they will not forestall a Russian defeat.

David E. Johnson: A Remembrance

On October 30th, David E. Johnson, Col U.S. Army (retired), a principal researcher at RAND and a leading intellectual in national defense and military history, passed away following a long illness. His deep knowledge of military history provided a perspective to analyze problems and make sound policy recommendations that were valued by senior decisionmakers in the Army and elsewhere.

Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake

Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.

A Moment of Strategic Clarity

With the Russian mobilization and declared annexation, whatever prospects there were for a negotiated peace seem to have all but vanished. Any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order.

Ukraine's 1777 Moment

The Battle of Saratoga turned the tides of the Revolutionary War, ultimately leading to American independence. Nearly 250 years later, the Battle of Kharkiv may be a similar turning point in Ukraine's fight against Russia.

The Case for Cautious Optimism in Ukraine

While the outcome of the war in Ukraine is by no means clear, the balance of materiel, manpower, and willpower all seem to make the case for cautious optimism. Although Ukraine is unlikely to throw Russia back to its borders any time soon, the war will likely trend in Ukraine's favor in the coming months. But only if the West does not blink first.

The Lessons the United States Learned, and That Russia Did Not

As dissimilar as the Iraq and Afghanistan wars may be to the war in Ukraine, those conflicts taught the United States a few important lessons, often the hard way. As a result, the U.S. military probably would have avoided the problems that beset the Russians in Ukraine—not in spite of the global war on terrorism, but because of it.

Russia, Ukraine, and the Misuse of History

History as playbook has been used to paint the Ukraine conflict as the start of a larger battle for Europe. But even if it is Putin's intent to knock over one domino of a European country after another, the Russian Army—unlike the Soviet Army of old—simply does not have the capacity to do that.

The Realities of Civil War

Civil war is not a pretty thing to see or be a part of. Those understandably engaged with the intense debate over whether or not the president should be impeached should not suggest that impeachment would result in civil war in our country. There are peaceful means available for us as Americans to follow in order to solve the problems at hand.

The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge

In an era of global competition in which U.S. military resources are stretched thin, the United States should consider looking for opportunities to scale back potential overcommitment. The current inter-Korean dialogue presents such an opportunity.

The Tension Between What the Army Is and What It Does

Cooperation and integration of the Army's three components is important, but what's most important is effectiveness in war and the key to that is trained, properly organized, and ready forces.

Understanding the Abrams Doctrine: Myth Versus Reality

As the NCFA finishes up its work on the future of the Army it is worthwhile to note that the strategic context in which the Army operates and is organized has changed over time, resulting in different calculations of costs and risks.

The U.S. Army Must Remain Prepared for Battle

Converting the Army into a force suited only for homeland defense or humanitarian missions abroad, without the ability to fight sophisticated foes as part of a joint force, would result in an unprepared Army.

Report

Revisiting RAND's Russia Wargames After the Invasion of Ukraine: Summary and Implications

This report summarizes reexamined RAND tabletop exercises involving Russia from the past eight years in a review of wargaming methods and analysis and presents implications for future potential conflicts involving major powers.

Report

Battle of Gettysburg: The Impact of Alternative Technologies on Civil War History

The authors of this Battlefield Futures Program report examine the 1863 Battle of Gettysburg and consider the potential outcomes that might have come to bear had the armies involved used alternative technologies.

Report

The Backbone of U.S. Joint Operations: Army Roles in the Indo-Pacific

The authors of this report seek to provide an engaging and structured illustrated narrative to more clearly describe the U.S. Army's role throughout the Indo-Pacific region in the present day and into 2035.

Report

A History of the Strategic Implications of the Great Recession and Its Aftermath on U.S. National Defense

The authors discuss the Great Recession's reverberations, and especially the emergence of a focus on deficit reduction, on the Department of Defense as leaders worked to shift focus amid a dynamic threat environment and budgetary uncertainty.

Report

Operation Inherent Resolve: U.S. Ground Force Contributions

This report, which outlines four battles within Operation Inherent Resolve (OIR) and reviews U.S. ground force contributions to those battles, is intended to address gaps both in analysis and in the common understanding of OIR.

Report

A History of the Third Offset, 2014–2018

The authors describe the Third Offset -- a U.S. strategy centered on the potential of technology to offset Chinese and Russian military advances and that shaped the 2018 National Defense Strategy -- focusing on efforts to effect institutional change.

Report

North Korean Decisionmaking: Economic Opening, Conventional Deterrence Breakdown, and Nuclear Use

The authors examine (1) experiences of different communist regimes to forecast North Korean adoption of a new economic model; (2) what might happen if conventional deterrence fails on the Peninsula; and (3) why North Korea might use nuclear weapons.

Report

North Korean Conventional Artillery: A Means to Retaliate, Coerce, Deter, or Terrorize Populations

A series of visualizations brings into sharp relief the threat posed by the massive numbers of North Korean conventional artillery systems that are within range of major South Korean population centers.

Tool

A History of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present: A Path to Army Total Force Policy

The authors show that there is no such thing as a traditional U.S. military policy. Rather, the laws that authorize, empower, and govern the U.S. armed forces emerged from long-standing debates and legislative compromises between 1903 and 1940.

Report

The Evolution of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present, Volume I: The Old Regime: The Army, Militia, and Volunteers from Colonial Times to the Spanish-American War

The authors show that there is no such thing as a "traditional" U.S. military policy. Rather, the laws that authorize, empower, and govern the U.S. armed forces emerged from long-standing debates and legislative compromises between 1903 and 1940.

Report

The Evolution of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present, Volume II: The Formative Years for U.S. Military Policy, 1898–1940

The authors show that there is no such thing as a "traditional" U.S. military policy. Rather, the laws that authorize, empower, and govern the U.S. armed forces emerged from long-standing debates and legislative compromises between 1903 and 1940.

Report

The Evolution of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present, Volume IV: The Total Force Policy Era, 1970–2015

The authors show that there is no such thing as a "traditional" U.S. military policy. Rather, the laws that authorize, empower, and govern the U.S. armed forces emerged from long-standing debates and legislative compromises between 1903 and 1940.

Research Brief

The Battle for Baghdad: Institutionalizing Army Lessons for Urban Combat

This brief recounts the U.S. Army's efforts in the Iraq War, especially in Baghdad, and offers lessons learned and recommendations to enable leaders and soldiers to be better prepared in future conflicts.

Report

The U.S. Army and the Battle for Baghdad: Lessons Learned — And Still to Be Learned

To help the U.S. Army and U.S. Department of Defense retain institutional knowledge and fully prepare future leaders, RAND researchers recount the Army's efforts in the Iraq War, especially in Baghdad, and offer lessons learned and recommendations.

Tool

Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems

This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities.

Commentary

Planning an Army for the 21st Century: Principles to Guide U.S. Army Force Size, Mix, and Component Distribution

In this Perspective, the authors seek to provide criteria for an effective and efficient Army for the 21st century and lay out principles to help guide leaders in making contemporary force-planning decisions.

Commentary

The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios

This perspective summarizes the findings of three major RAND studies on security challenges on the Korean Peninsula.

Report

Sustaining the Army's Reserve Components as an Operational Force

This report identifies emerging policy lessons regarding the use of, and reforms to, the U.S. Army's Reserve Components (RCs) as an operational reserve derived from analyses of their contributions to recent contingency operations.

Report

The Evolution of U.S. Military Policy from the Constitution to the Present

This report traces how U.S. military policy has evolved through statutory changes and legislative compromises. Today's "traditional" military policy dates back only to 1940. This history provides context for further evolving the U.S. Army.

Report

Reimagining the Character of Urban Operations for the U.S. Army: How the Past Can Inform the Present and Future

Provides a historical analysis of how militaries have deployed light and mechanized infantry with armored forces during close urban combat, to identify the comparative advantages and costs of this warfighting approach and lessons learned.