What Military History Tells Us About Ukraine's Kursk Invasion

commentary

Aug 15, 2024

Ukrainian servicemen ride a military vehicle near the Russian border in Sumy region, Ukraine, August 12, 2024, photo by Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters

Ukrainian servicemen ride a military vehicle near the Russian border in Sumy region, Ukraine, August 12, 2024

Photo by Viacheslav Ratynskyi/Reuters

This commentary originally appeared on Defense One on August 15, 2024.

The Ukrainian ground offensive into the southern Kursk region of Russia is as bold an operation as they come, particularly when put in the broader context of military history.

It's difficult to know, at this point, Ukraine's intent for this risky operation. Perhaps Kyiv aims to draw in Russian ground troops, weakening their offensive elsewhere. Perhaps it wants to drive Russian artillery northward, beyond range of Ukraine's Sumy region. Perhaps the goal is to capture prisoners to exchange for Ukrainian soldiers held in Russia, or to hold a sliver of land before negotiations begin. Perhaps it is intended mainly as an assault on Putin's political credibility.…

The remainder of this commentary is available on defenseone.com.

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Gian Gentile is the associate director of RAND's Army Research Division. Adam Givens is an associate policy researcher at RAND.

Commentary gives RAND researchers a platform to convey insights based on their professional expertise and often on their peer-reviewed research and analysis.