Kristen Gunness

Senior Policy Researcher

Washington Office

Education

B.A. in international relations, Tufts University; MA Certificate in Chinese Studies, Johns Hopkins SAIS/Nanjing; M.A. in security studies, Georgetown University

One Page Bio

Overview

Kristen Gunness is a senior policy researcher in the RAND Corporation's Washington Office. Her background includes military, security, and foreign policy issues in the Indo Pacific region with a focus on China. She has worked with a range of DoD and private sector clients throughout her career and advised senior leaders in Navy, OSD, PACOM, and the Intelligence Community. Gunness has been an adjunct policy analyst at RAND since 2012, where she has worked on numerous projects related to Chinese military developments and their impact on U.S. and DoD interests. Before joining RAND, Gunness served as the Director of the Navy Asia Pacific Advisory Group at the Pentagon, where she advised the Chief of Naval Operations on security and foreign policy trends in the Indo Pacific region with a focus on Chinese naval and grey zone capabilities. Prior to her position on the Navy staff, she was Senior Project Director on Chinese military and security affairs at CNA. Gunness holds a BA from Tufts University in International Relations, a certificate in Chinese Studies from the Johns Hopkins SAIS Nanjing Center, and an MA in Security Studies from Georgetown University’s Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Research Focus

Honors & Awards

Navy Meritorious Civilian Service Award

Languages

Chinese (Mandarin)

Publications

Testimony
China's Overseas Military Diplomacy and Implications for U.S. Interests
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 26, 2023.
Jan 26, 2023
Research Brief
Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific
This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.
Jan 12, 2023
Report
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chinese responses and advises how the characteristics of activities may affect the risk of escalation.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.
Oct 25, 2022
Report
The Return of Great Power War: Scenarios of Systemic Conflict Between the United States and China
The authors consider a hypothetical situation in which China is nearing the point of global primacy. Within such a context, the authors explore scenarios of systemic U.S.-China low-intensity and high-intensity conflict.
Aug 10, 2022
Report
Implications of a Coercive Quarantine of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China
The authors examine how China might enact a quarantine of Taiwan, potential U.S. and allied responses to the crisis, and implications related to economic interdependencies and supply chain challenges.
May 23, 2022
Report
The Limits of Restraint: The Military Implications of a Restrained U.S. Grand Strategy in the Asia-Pacific
RAND researchers propose possible warfighting scenarios in the Asia-Pacific region that could guide defense planning if the United States adopted a grand strategy of restraint. Researchers also describe how U.S. posture in the region would change.
Mar 31, 2022
Report
Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era: An Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies
The authors examine how China's approach to deterrence signalling is evolving along with its expanding objectives, growing military capabilities, and the availability of new communication channels—and how regional countries should respond.
May 27, 2021
Report
People's Liberation Army Operational Concepts
In this report, authors assess China's military theory, strategy, and guiding principles, in addition to doctrinal or operational concepts, to help U.S. strategists and planners formulate responses to China's evolving military strategy and doctrine.
Sep 29, 2020
Report
The PLA and China's Rejuvenation: National Security and Military Strategies, Deterrence Concepts, and Combat Capabilities
This study describes China's national and security strategies and its approach to war and escalation control; summarizes its military capabilities developments; and reviews its concepts for deterrence in strategic and conventional domains.
Dec 6, 2016
Testimony
PLA Expeditionary Capabilities and Implications for United States Asia Policy
Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 21, 2016.
Jan 21, 2016
Report
Emerging Trends in China's Development of Unmanned Systems
RAND's exploratory analysis of China's development and use of unmanned systems focuses on maritime unmanned systems, the roles China sees for them, Chinese development of unmanned vehicles, and uses for such systems in the East and South China Seas.
Mar 12, 2015
Report
China's Incomplete Military Transformation: Assessing the Weaknesses of the People's Liberation Army (PLA)
The PLA is keenly aware of its many weaknesses and is vigorously striving to correct them. Although it is only natural to focus on the PLA's growing capabilities, understanding the PLA's weaknesses -- and its self-assessments -- is no less important.
Feb 13, 2015