Paul Heaton

Adjunct Economist

Off Site Office

Education

Ph.D. and M.A. in economics, University of Chicago; B.A. in economics, Brigham Young University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Paul Heaton is an adjunct economist at the RAND Corporation. From 2012 to 2015, he was director of RAND's Institute for Civil Justice, and he currently is a professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School, where he codirects the Quattrone Center for the Fair Administration of Justice. Much of his research aims to apply methodological insights from economics to inform issues in legal and criminal justice policy. His recent work examines liability of prosecutors and police and the impact of pretrial detention. Other work examines how the structure of insurance markets affects safety, medical care, and fraud; how attorneys impact case outcomes; and how drug control strategies influence criminal activity.

Heaton's prior work examines topics such as court budgeting, racial profiling, and police technology use. His research has been published in leading scholarly journals such as the Harvard Law Review, Yale Law Journal, New England Journal of Medicine, Journal of Law and Economics, American Journal of Public Health, and Journal of Labor Economics. In 2010–2011 he was a Stephen Carroll Distinguished Scholar in ICJ, and in both 2015 and 2010 he received the Edwin Huddleson Jr. Outstanding Teacher Award from the Pardee RAND Graduate School. Heaton received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago, where he was a National Science Foundation Graduate Research Fellow.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Examining how insurance regulation affects the costs and availability of insurance
Understanding linkages between the health care system and tort system
Evaluating public policies designed to reduce substance use and crime

Selected Publications

Paul Heaton, Beau Kilmer, Nancy Nicosia, and Greg Midgette, "Efficacy of Active Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota’s 24/7 Sobriety Project," American Journal of Public Health, 103(1), 2013

Paul Heaton, James Anderson, "How Much Difference Does the Lawyer Make? The Effects of Defense Counsel on Murder Case Outcomes," Yale Law Journal, 122(1), 2012

Paul Heaton, "Sunday Liquor Laws and Crime," Journal of Public Economics, 96(1-2), 2012

Paul Heaton, Spencer Jones, Robert Rudin and Eric Schneider, "Unraveling the IT Productivity Paradox: Lessons for Health Care," New England Journal of Medicine, 366(24), 2012

Paul Heaton, Eric Helland, "Judicial Expenditures and Litigation Access: Evidence from Auto Injuries," Journal of Legal Studies, 40(2), 2011

Luis Garicano, Paul Heaton, "Information Technology, Organization, and Productivity in the Public Sector: Evidence from Police Departments," Journal of Labor Economics, 28(1), 2010

Paul Heaton, "Understanding the Effects of Anti-Profiling Policies," Journal of Law and Economics, 53(1), 2010

Heaton, Paul, David S. Loughran, and Amalia Miller, Compensating Wounded Warriors: An Analysis of Injury, Labor Market Earnings, and Disability Compensation Among Veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars, RAND Corporation (MG-1166), 2012

Honors & Awards

RAND Gold Medal Award, RAND Corporation, 2012
Stephen J. Carroll Distinguished Scholar in Insurance and Liability Policy, RAND Institute for Civil Justice, 2011
Huddleson Outstanding Teacher Award, Pardee RAND Graduate School, 2010 and 2015

Commentary

Health Care Costs

Tax Reform Could Raise Car Insurance Rates
The new tax law eliminates the individual mandate. When this repeal takes effect in 2019, millions more Americans are expected to go without health insurance. Auto insurers will likely pick up the tab for some of that population's medical care. That could raise car insurance premiums.
Feb 4, 2018
U.S. News & World Report
Victims of Crime

Americans' Hearts, but Not Necessarily Wallets, Will Be Open for Victims of Navy Yard Shootings
Comparisons are already being drawn between Monday's terrible events in the Washington Navy Yard and other recent high profile mass shootings, including those that occurred last year in Newtown, Conn., and Aurora, Colo. However, one way in which this shooting may differ from other events is in who — if anybody — provides financial compensation for those who are injured.
Sep 18, 2013
The RAND Blog
Law Enforcement

Short-Term Savings, Long-Term Losses: When Police Departments Respond to Economic Pressure by Cutting Their Forces
Many police departments around the United States have faced budget cuts recently. Ultimately, say Paul Heaton and Brian Jackson, for police services, as with most other things, you get what you pay for.
Nov 12, 2012
The RAND Blog
PIP Mandate Keeps Michigan's Auto Premiums High
By offering consumers more flexibility in personal injury protection (PIP) coverage, the Michigan legislature can reduce costs for many drivers while enabling those who want the best coverage to continue to buy it, writes Paul Heaton.
Jul 18, 2012
The Detroit News
Health Information Technology

Unraveling the IT Productivity Paradox—Lessons for Health Care
Although health care organizations have favorable characteristics that can maximize IT's benefits, the reengineering of health care delivery is only beginning, write Spencer Jones, Paul Heaton, Robert Rudin, and Eric Schneider.
Jun 14, 2012
New England Journal of Medicine
Law Enforcement

Save Money Hire Police
The high cost of crime to society suggests that adding police officers may give large cities a sizable return on their investments, write Greg Ridgeway and Paul Heaton.
Nov 22, 2011
Los Angeles Times
Crime

Do Higher Crime Rates Cause a Decrease in Religiosity?
If we observe that high crime and low levels of religious belief or high levels of belief and low crime go hand in hand, how should we interpret that correlation? asks Paul Heaton.
Mar 1, 2010
ScienceandReligionToday.com

Publications

Journal Article
A Natural Experiment to Test the Effect of Sanction Certainty and Celerity on Substance-Impaired Driving: North Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Program
Over half of participants ordered to abstain from substance use complete 24/7 Sobriety without a detected substance use event. At the county level, the program is associated with a 9% reduction in substance-impaired driving arrests.
May 7, 2020
Journal Article
Medicaid Coverage Expansions and Liability Insurance
This article offers some of the first rigorous evidence regarding the impacts of health coverage expansions targeting the low-income population on use of the tort system, as proxied by insurance payouts.
Jan 14, 2020
Journal Article
The Effect of Mandatory Insurer Reporting on Settlement Delay
This article examines this problem empirically, using a rich, national data set of closed automobile bodily injury claims.
2020
Journal Article
The Effects of Holistic Defense on Criminal Justice Outcomes
Using administrative data covering over half a million cases and a quasi-experimental research design, we estimate the causal effect of holistic defense on case outcomes and future offending.
Jan 29, 2019
Research Brief
Holistic Representation: An Innovative Approach to Defending Poor Clients Can Reduce Incarceration and Save Taxpayer Dollars — Without Harm to Public Safety
Holistic defense is an innovative and promising approach to defending poor clients in criminal cases, and this brief summarizes the first large-scale empirical evaluation of the impact of holistic representation on criminal justice outcomes.
Jan 11, 2019
Journal Article
Does It Matter Who Pays for Auto Injuries?
In many states, auto insurers rather than health insurers pay for a substantial fraction of the medical care following auto crashes.
2019
Report
Comparing Ex-Servicemember and Civilian Use of Unemployment Insurance
Drawing from a data set with unemployment compensation for ex-service members and unemployment insurance claims from 2002 to 2012, this report provides a first portrait of the job search process of ex-service members relative to that for civilians.
Feb 8, 2018
Draft
The Effect of Health Insurance Coverage Expansions on Auto Liability Claims and Costs
Examines the effect of health insurance coverage expansions on auto liability claims and costs.
Dec 15, 2017
Research Brief
How Does Expanding Health Insurance Coverage Affect Workers' Compensation Costs?
The Affordable Care Act's expansion of coverage for people under age 26 led to a 1-percent reduction in uninsurance, equating to a 0.8-percent decrease in workers' compensation claim frequency, and a roughly 1-percent decrease in overall claim costs.
Nov 22, 2016
Draft
Health Insurance and Workers' Compensation Claiming: Evidence from the Affordable Care Act
Exploits the Affordable Care Act young adult dependent coverage expansion to measure the effect of health coverage expansions on workers' compensation claim frequency and severity.
Sep 14, 2016
Report
Consumer Attitudes Toward Data Breach Notifications and Loss of Personal Information
This report sets out the results of a study of consumer attitudes toward data breaches, notifications of those breaches, and company responses to such events.
Apr 14, 2016
Infographic
Data Theft Victims, and Their Response to Breach Notifications
This infographic highlights the results of a study of consumer attitudes toward data breaches, notifications of those breaches, and company responses to such events.
Apr 14, 2016
Journal Article
Can a Criminal Justice Alcohol Abstention Programme with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions (24/7 Sobriety) Reduce Population Mortality? A Retrospective Observational Study
In this study we examine whether the 24/7 Sobriety programme in South Dakota, USA—the largest such programme to date—is associated with reductions in mortality.
Feb 18, 2016
Journal Article
The Short- and Long-Run Effects of Private Law Enforcement: Evidence from University Police
This paper seeks new evidence on the impact of private police on crime, exploiting a unique setting, the University of Chicago Police Department, that permits a credible examination of the causal effect of police in both the short and long run.
2016
Journal Article
How Does Tort Law Affect Consumer Auto Insurance Costs?
Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Survey and a differences-in-differences research design, this article examines whether any of several common state-level modifications to tort law affect consumer costs for auto insurance.
Nov 23, 2015
Journal Article
Victim Compensation Funds and Tort Litigation Following Incidents of Mass Violence
Explores the issue of how victim compensation funds (VCFs) impact a victim's likelihood to sue using the tort system. VCFs have become a feature of the policy landscape following high-profile tragedies.
2015
Journal Article
Assessing the Effects of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana Use: The Devil Is in the Details
This paper sheds light on previous inconsistencies identified in the literature regarding the relationship between medical marijuana laws (MMLs) and recreational marijuana use by closely examining the importance of policy and the timing of when particular policy dimensions are enacted.
2015
Journal Article
The Effect of Malpractice Reform on Emergency Department Care
Many believe that fear of malpractice lawsuits drives physicians to order otherwise unnecessary care and that legal reforms could reduce such wasteful spending.
Oct 1, 2014
Infographic
In Broad Daylight: New Calculator Brings Crime Costs — and the Value of Police — Out of the Shadows
RAND's Cost of Crime Calculator lets city leaders and residents calculate the total cost of crime in their communities and assess the potential value of hiring additional police officers.
May 15, 2014
Report
Preparing Principals to Raise Student Achievement: Implementation and Effects of the New Leaders Program in Ten Districts
This report describes New Leaders, a nonprofit dedicated to preparing principals to lead schools to greater achievement, the implementation of its program, and the program's effect on student achievement.
May 13, 2014
Report
Preparing Principals to Raise Student Achievement: Implementation and Effects of the New Leaders Program in Ten Districts — Appendix
This document presents technical appendixes to supplement the main evaluation report Preparing Principals to Raise Student Achievement: Implementation and Effects of the New Leaders Program in Ten Districts (RR-507-NL).
May 13, 2014
Research Brief
Principal Preparation Matters: How Leadership Affects Student Achievement
Summarizing a larger report, this briefing presents evidence of the effect that New Leaders, a nonprofit dedicated to preparing principals to lead schools to greater achievement, has on student achievement.
May 13, 2014
Report
How Will the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act Affect Liability Insurance Costs?
This report identifies potential mechanisms through which health care reform might affect claim costs for several major types of liability coverage, especially auto insurance, workers' compensation coverage, and medical malpractice.
Apr 9, 2014
Research Brief
The Impact of the Affordable Care Act on Liability Insurance
Summarizes a report that identifies potential mechanisms through which health care reform might affect claim costs for several major types of liability coverage, especially auto insurance, workers’ compensation coverage, and medical malpractice.
Apr 9, 2014
Journal Article
The Effects of Medical Marijuana Laws on Potency
Marijuana potency has risen dramatically over the past two decades. In the United States, it is unclear whether state medical marijuana policies have contributed to this increase.
Mar 1, 2014
Report
Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder and the Earnings of Military Reservists
This report investigates the effects of being symptomatic of post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) on labor market earnings of reservists in the years following deployment.
Jul 23, 2013
Journal Article
Efficacy of Frequent Monitoring with Swift, Certain, and Modest Sanctions for Violations: Insights from South Dakota 24/7 Sobriety Project
In community supervision settings, frequent alcohol testing with swift, certain, and modest sanctions for violations can reduce problem drinking and improve public health outcomes.
2013
Research Brief
An Innovative Way to Curb Problem Drinking: South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Project
South Dakota's 24/7 Sobriety Project, in which individuals with alcohol-involved offenses submit to breathalyzer tests twice per day or wear an alcohol monitoring bracelet at all times, reduced repeat DUI arrests at the county level by 12 percent.
Dec 12, 2012
Report
Unemployment Among Post-9/11 Veterans and Military Spouses After the Economic Downturn
Policymakers need to understand whether military spouses succeed at finding jobs and how veterans fare economically after they leave the military. But these groups differ from the civilian population in important ways, making comparisons difficult.
Nov 9, 2012
Journal Article
How Much Difference Does the Lawyer Make? The Effect of Defense Counsel on Murder Case Outcomes
The vast difference in outcomes for defendants assigned different counsel types raises important questions about the adequacy and fairness of the criminal justice system.
Oct 1, 2012
Report
Analysis of Financial Support to the Surviving Spouses and Children of Casualties in the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars
Examines how the combat death of service members affects the subsequent labor market earnings of surviving spouses and the extent to which federal survivor benefits compensate for lost household earnings.
Jun 28, 2012
Report
Compensating Wounded Warriors: An Analysis of Injury, Labor Market Earnings, and Disability Compensation Among Veterans of the Iraq and Afghanistan Wars
Analyzes the effect of injuries sustained by service members in Iraq and Afghanistan on post-deployment labor market earnings and the extent to which disability payments compensate for any lost earnings.
Jun 28, 2012
Journal Article
Unraveling the IT Productivity Paradox -- Lessons for Health Care
Productivity gains that can be achieved by widely adopting health information technology are likely to come from the reengineering of health care and may require new measurement tools to accurately gauge their impact.
Jun 14, 2012
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 36, No. 1, Spring 2012
Stories cover Iran's nuclear threat, social security in Mexico, programs for veterans, crime costs, U.S. efforts in Afghanistan, the health insurance mandate, legal defense, marijuana legalization, global education, and Louisiana's coastal planning.
May 11, 2012
Report
The Impact of Health Care Reform on Workers’ Compensation Medical Care: Evidence from Massachusetts
Uses the experience of Massachusetts's heath care reform to empirically estimate how health reform impacts the volume and cost of workers' compensation hospital care.
Apr 23, 2012
Report
The Effects of Hiring Tax Credits on Employment of Disabled Veterans
Estimates the effects of the 2007 expansion of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit program, which offered tax credits to employers who hired certain groups of veterans, including those with service-connected disabilities.
Apr 11, 2012
Research Brief
Improving Disabled Veterans' Employment Prospects Using Tax Credits
Estimates the effects of the 2007 expansion of the Work Opportunity Tax Credit program, which offered tax credits to employers who hired certain groups of veterans, including those with service-connected disabilities.
Apr 11, 2012
Report
Compensation for Combat Deaths: Policy Considerations
This briefing identifies policy questions related to compensating service members and their survivors for fatality risk. It compares combat fatality patterns with fatalities occurring in other contexts and discusses current compensation programs.
Mar 15, 2012
Journal Article
Sunday Liquor Laws and Crime
This paper analyzes the effects of legalization of Sunday packaged liquor sales on crime, focusing on the phased introduction of such sales in Virginia beginning in 2004.
Feb 1, 2012
Draft
How Much Difference Does the Lawyer Make? The Effect of Defense Counsel on Murder Case Outcomes
Describes the results of a study to examine the effect of defense counsel on outcomes in murder prosecutions in Philadelphia.
Dec 16, 2011
Journal Article
Today's 'Meaningful Use' Standard for Medication Orders by Hospitals May Save Few Lives; Later Stages May Do More
Current federal standards for hospital "meaningful use" of health information technology--which requires electronic medication orders for 30 percent of eligible patients--are probably too low to reduce deaths from heart failure and heart attack among hospitalized Medicare beneficiaries.
Oct 1, 2011
Draft
Sunday Liquor Laws and Crime
Analyzes the effects of legalization of Sunday packaged liquor sales on crime, focusing on the phased introduction of such sales in Virginia beginning in 2004.
Jun 22, 2011
Research Brief
Sexual Orientation and U.S. Personnel Policy Revisited
Summarizes results of a RAND Corporation study on sexual orientation and U.S. military policy requested by the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Secretary of Defense in order to weigh repeal of the law known as "Don't Ask, Don't Tell."
Dec 23, 2010
Report
Sexual Orientation and U.S. Military Personnel Policy: An Update of RAND's 1993 Study
Shares results of a study on sexual orientation and U.S. military policy, requested by the Senate Armed Services Committee and the Secretary of Defense in order to weigh the repeal of the law known as ''Don't Ask, Don't Tell.''
Nov 18, 2010
Report
An Analysis of the Incidence of Recruiter Irregularites
Data from 2007 through 2009 are used to tabulate the incidence and prevalence of recruiter irregularities.
Nov 9, 2010
Research Brief
Do Bonuses Affect Enlistment and Reenlistment?
Congress has questioned the scope and efficacy of enlistment and reenlistment bonuses, but Army high-quality recruiting would have been lower without them; they are more cost-effective than pay but less so than recruiters as a way to gain recruits.
Jun 9, 2010
Report
Cash Incentives and Military Enlistment, Attrition, and Reenlistment
The Department of Defense budget for enlistment and reenlistment bonuses increased greatly over the past decade, leading some to ask whether bonuses were the most cost-effective way to increase the supply of personnel to the armed forces.
May 14, 2010
Draft
Preliminary Findings from the New Leaders for New Schools Evaluation
Presents preliminary findings on the impact of attending a school led by a K-8 school led by a New Leader.
Apr 29, 2010
Report
Hidden in Plain Sight: What Cost-of-Crime Research Can Tell Us About Investing in Police
Research on the cost of crime and the effectiveness of police in preventing crime can be used to better understand the returns on investments in police. Returns on investments in police personnel are likely to be substantial.
Mar 5, 2010
Research Brief
Reducing Michigan Auto Insurance Rates
Higher auto insurance rates in Michigan lead to a high proportion of drivers without auto insurance. Introducing options or fee schedules for personal injury protection coverage could help lead to broader, more-affordable choices.
Mar 4, 2010
Report
The U.S. Experience with No-Fault Automobile Insurance: A Retrospective
This monograph reviews the history of no-fault auto insurance in the United States and concludes that political support for no-fault dissipated because premium costs under no-fault have been higher than tort largely due to higher medical costs.
Feb 2, 2010
Research Brief
What Happened to No-Fault Automobile Insurance?
This brief reviews the decline in popularity of no-fault automobile insurance. The main reason for this decline is rising costs: no-fault offers more medical services to accident victims and pays more for the same care than tort insurance.
Feb 1, 2010
Report
Information Technology, Organization, and Productivity in the Public Sector: Evidence from Police Departments
Examines the relationship between information technology, organization, and productivity in the public sector using a panel data set of police departments that covers 1987 through 2003.
Jan 25, 2010
Draft
Judicial Expenditures and Litigation Access: Evidence from Auto Injuries
Measures the relationship between state-level court expenditures and the propensity of injured parties to pursue litigation.
Jan 5, 2010
Report
Auto Insurance Reform in Michigan: What Can the Data Tell Us?
Legislators and consumer groups in Michigan have recently proposed reforms designed to reduce the costs of auto insurance in the state. Reforms that change claiming behavior may have considerable potential for lowering auto premiums in Michigan.
2010
Research Brief
Explaining Recent Army and Navy Minority Recruiting Trends
Identifies factors that explain recruiting trends among blacks and Hispanics from 2000 to 2007, including the responsiveness of these groups to various recruiting resources as well as other factors, such as the effect of the Iraq war.
Aug 28, 2009
Report
Recruiting Minorities: What Explains Recent Trends in the Army and Navy?
Identifies factors that explain trends in black and Hispanic representation among high-quality recruits in the Army and Navy; considers which policies are likely to be most effective in increasing high-quality enlistments within different groups.
Aug 26, 2009
Draft
FY2006 Anti-Gang Initiative Grants in the Central District of California: Report to the U.S. Attorney
Reports on the FY2006 Anti-Gang Initiative for the U.S. Attorney for the Central District of California, who coordinates the Project Safe Neighborhood programs in his district.
Mar 12, 2009
Draft
Does Treatment Respond to Reimbursement Rates? Evidence from Trauma Care
Using data from inpatient hospitalizations surrounding a 2003 Colorado auto insurance reform, tests the model of behavior that predicts physicians may respond dysfunctionally to financial incentives by recommending unnecessary treatment.
Jan 29, 2009
Draft
No-Fault Insurance and Automobile Accidents
Examines whether drivers under no-fault insurance causes more accidents.
Jan 16, 2009
Draft
Auto Liability in Nevada Compared to Other States: Testimony for Nevada Auto Theft and Insurance Fraud Task Force
Briefing prepared as testimony for the Nevada Auto Theft and Insurance Fraud Task Force intended to inform the Task Force about Nevada’s liability situation relative to other states.
Jul 17, 2008
Draft
Childhood Educational Disruption and Later Life Outcomes: Evidence from Prince Edward County
Examines the effects of a five-year school closing in Prince Edward County, Virginia, a result of opposition to court-ordered integration, on affected black children's educational attainment and economic outcomes.
Feb 5, 2008
Report
A synthesis of literature on the effectiveness of community orders
The U.K. National Audit Office (NAO) commissioned RAND Europe to conduct this review to identify and synthesize international research about the effectiveness of community orders in reducing re-offending.
Jan 10, 2008
Journal Article
Childhood Educational Disruption and Later Life Outcomes Evidence from Prince Edward County
Beginning in 1959, the public schools in Prince Edward County, Virginia, were closed for five years in opposition to court-ordered integration. Affected black students did not exhibit substantially worse material, health, and incarceration outcomes.
2008