Jacob L. Heim

Senior Policy Researcher

Washington Office

Education

B.A. in mathematics, Amherst College; M.A. in international relations, Johns Hopkins University

One Page Bio

Overview

Jacob Heim specializes in strategic assessment and defense analysis with a background in international relations and mathematics. His research has focused on the military balance in the Western Pacific, USAF overseas force posture, wargaming, and the challenge posed by anti-access, area-denial capabilities. Heim served as a strategic analyst in the office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (DASD) for Strategy and Force Development, where he advised the DASD on U.S. defense strategy and the evolution of military capabilities. Previously, he was a senior operations research analyst with the MITRE Corporation. He holds an M.A. with honors from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a B.A. with distinction in mathematics from Amherst College.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Adjunct Lecturer of Strategic Studies, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies;

Honors & Awards

Medal for Exceptional Public Service, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Commentary

Military Force Planning

Force Planning in the New Era of Strategic Competition
If the United States means to take a return to strategic competition seriously, then force planning must evolve beyond the post–Cold War approach. A new framework would let users test their intuition and identify areas of advantage while avoiding the risk of persisting in competitions that impose onerous costs.
Mar 28, 2020
InkStick
Military Strategy

Why the United States Needs an Active Denial Strategy for Asia
The evolving balance of power will require adjustments to U.S. strategy. Making those adjustments will help ensure that the U.S.-China relationship, now merely tense, doesn't escalate to hostile.
Jun 8, 2015
The RAND Blog

Publications

Report
Operational Imperative: Investing Wisely to Bolster U.S. Air Bases Against Chinese and Russian Attacks
In this Perspective, the authors synthesize past RAND research on Chinese and Russian missile threats to U.S. overseas air bases and how the U.S. Air Force can cost-effectively counter them.
Jan 17, 2023
Report
Measuring Power, Power Cycles, and the Risk of Great-Power War in the 21st Century
How should we measure national power? Which states are gaining or losing it? The authors illustrate a quantitative, scenario-based approach for policymakers, assess the impact of shocks, and identify periods when shifts could portend conflict.
Apr 15, 2020
Report
Distributed Operations in a Contested Environment: Implications for USAF Force Presentation
This report's authors identify capabilities the Air Force needs to carry out distributed operations in a contested environment. They then assess whether the current force presentation model can provide such capabilities.
Jul 17, 2019
Journal Article
Of Bombs and Bureaucrats: Internal Drivers of Nuclear Force Building in China and the United States
This article examines the domestic influences on US and Chinese nuclear forces. While strategic factors largely drive each side's, underappreciated domestic and organizational factors also influence outcomes.
2018
Research Brief
Domestic Factors Could Accelerate the Evolution of China's Nuclear Posture
This brief discusses how domestic factors could influence China's evolving nuclear deterrent.
Apr 20, 2017
Report
China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States
This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.
Mar 15, 2017
Report
The Foundations of Operational Resilience — Assessing the Ability to Operate in an Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD) Environment: The Analytical Framework, Lexicon, and Characteristics of the Operational Resilience Analysis Model (ORAM)
Describes a modeling framework and lexicon for conducting a detailed analysis of future Air Force operational resilience in an anti-access/area denial (A2/AD) environment.
Jul 7, 2016
Report
Missiles for Asia? The Need for Operational Analysis of U.S. Theater Ballistic Missiles in the Pacific
To hedge against a collapse of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, the U.S. Army should assess the potential benefits and risks of adding conventional land-based theater ballistic missiles to the U.S. arsenal.
Jun 28, 2016
Research Brief
Chinese Attacks on U.S. Air Bases in Asia: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to disrupt or degrade U.S. operations by attacking air bases.
Sep 14, 2015
Research Brief
Chinese Threats to U.S. Surface Ships: An Assessment of Relative Capabilities, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to target U.S. surface ships, especially aircraft carriers.
Sep 14, 2015
Research Brief
Tallying the U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Relative Capabilities and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has focused on new weapon systems, with little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military forces and development. This brief summarizes a RAND Project AIR FORCE study that seeks to fill this gap.
Sep 14, 2015
Research Brief
U.S. and Chinese Air Superiority Capabilities: An Assessment of Relative Advantage, 1996–2017
Discussion about China's military modernization has included little comparative analysis of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities. This brief focuses on improvements to China's ability to contest U.S. air superiority in an Asian conflict.
Sep 14, 2015
Report
The U.S.-China Military Scorecard: Forces, Geography, and the Evolving Balance of Power, 1996–2017
A RAND study analyzed trends in the development of Chinese and U.S. military capabilities in two scenarios (centered on Taiwan and the Spratly Islands) and multiple types of operations from 1996 to 2017.
Sep 14, 2015
Journal Article
People's Liberation Army Trajectories: International Drivers
The challenge for U.S. Pacific Command is to understand how China will employ this growing military capability in support of its interests.
Aug 3, 2015
Journal Article
The Iranian Missile Threat to Air Bases: A Distant Second to China's Conventional Deterrent
Iranian and Chinese ballistic missile doctrine contrasted. Implications for United States (US) force posture, force structure, and ability to project force globally.
Jul 31, 2015
Journal Article
Deterring Without Dominance: Discouraging Chinese Adventurism Under Austerity
Active denial would make the U.S. position in Asia more resilient.
Jun 3, 2015