Bruce McClintock

Encouraging Consistency in National Security Transparency

The United States remains the leader in space in both national security and commercial capabilities. Greater transparency about existing on-orbit systems that are already detected by many is an important next step that could bolster U.S. credibility while also aiding deterrence.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

From Gatherer of Lands to Gravedigger: A Political Assessment of Putin's War on Ukraine

Putin's war in Ukraine is already redefining the entire international order. If the United States acts now, it may be able to influence the shape of the post-war geopolitical terrain.

Russia's Withdrawal from the ISS: Another Sign of Its Space Decline?

Russia's threatened exit from the International Space Station could simply be more bluster from Moscow at a time of heightened tension between Russia and the West over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. But it also appears to be another signal that Russia's profile in space is in decline, a trend that is likely to continue and that the United States could be preparing for now.

U.S. Decision on ASAT Testing a Positive Step Towards Space Sustainability

The United States recently committed not to conduct destructive, direct-ascent anti-satellite missile testing. This sets an important example others might follow and takes an important first step towards a binding, international ban.

Navigating Norms for the New Space Era

To make better progress on global norms for responsible behavior in space, the U.S. defense and intelligence communities might first consider reaching a consensus among themselves on what these norms should be. Until they reconcile their differences the United States will be less likely be in a position to play a leadership role.

How Joe Biden Can Galvanize Space Diplomacy

The potential for conflicts to originate in outer space, or for terrestrial conflicts to extend there, has grown with the development of counterspace weapons and the explosion of commercial space activity. But previous efforts to establish norms have had limited results. The Biden administration has an opportunity, working with like-minded allies and partners, to galvanize nascent international efforts.

Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared

Russia is seeking more access and freedom of movement in the Mediterranean region, and is bolstering its military footprint to achieve this objective. The United States and NATO could respond by developing a more robust southern strategy, with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively.

Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War

Russia and the United States are still locked in a nuclear cold war. Thousands of nuclear weapons are deployed, some on high alert. Although the United States prudently withdrew from several past arms control treaties with Russia, it could be in America's interest to extend New START.

Space Safety Coordination: A Norm for All Nations

As space becomes more congested with satellites, the need for every nation to actively participate in the space safety coordination system grows. Most spacefaring countries participate, but a few countries do not—notably, Russia and China. That creates greater potential for collisions and hazards from debris.

Joint Military Exercises Distract from Complex Russia-Belarus Relationship

Analysts and military leaders have concerns that Russia will use the Zapad 2017 exercise in Belarus as a smokescreen to put personnel and equipment in place, and keep it there. But the deep ties and history of cooperation between the two states make the chances of that happening unlikely.

Russian Information Warfare: A Reality That Needs a Response

For the last three decades, Russia has exploited its growing capabilities in cyberspace to spy on, influence, and punish others. The West will continue to struggle to hold Moscow accountable, in part because international law falls far short of fully defining the rules or resolving conflicts.

Russia in Action, Short of War

The West needs to work more quickly and coordinate better to offset Russia's capabilities, aggressiveness, and success. Responding to Russia's hostile influence involves predicting Russia's targets, identifying the tools it's likely to use, and playing the long game rather than focusing on near-term events.

Commentary

Select Space Concepts for the New Space Era

In this Perspective, space researchers at the RAND Corporation identify space sustainability, security, and governance concepts that they believe are worthy of future research.

Report

Overcoming Barriers to Working with Highly Capable Allies and Partners in the Air, Space, and Cyber Domains: An Exploratory Analysis

In this report, the authors consider how the United States can enhance engagement with highly capable allies and partners to improve interoperability by identifying some of the main barriers to security cooperation with these countries.

Report

International Space Traffic Management: Charting a Course for Long-Term Sustainability

As outer space becomes more congested, contested, and competitive, risks to space safety, security, and sustainability heighten. The authors identified lessons from other domains and offer recommendations to make progress in space traffic management.

Research Brief

The Time for International Space Traffic Management Is Now

As space traffic becomes more congested, risks to space objects and space-related services grow. The authors offer recommendations to make progress in establishing an international space traffic management organization to combat those risks.

Report

Assessing the Readiness for Human Commercial Spaceflight Safety Regulations: Charting a Trajectory from Revolutionary to Routine Travel

RAND researchers assessed the progress that the commercial spaceflight industry has made in adopting voluntary safety standards and whether the industry has reached a level of maturity such that certain areas are ready for regulatory action.

Report

Cross-Domain Lessons for Space Traffic Management: An Analysis of Air and Maritime Treaty Governance Mechanisms

In this report, the authors examine the treaty-based governance systems from both the air and maritime domains as potential models for the development of an international space traffic management system.

Report

First Mover Typology for the Space Domain: Building a Foundation for Future Analysis

The authors offer a categorization and nuanced views of first moves in military strategy as a basis for understanding and further analysis of first mover advantage in the space domain.

Report

Competition in the Gray Zone: Countering China's Coercion Against U.S. Allies and Partners in the Indo-Pacific

This report examines how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Research Brief

A New Framework for Understanding and Countering China's Gray Zone Tactics

This brief presents a framework for understanding how and why China uses gray zone tactics—coercive activities beyond normal diplomacy and trade but below the use of kinetic military force—against U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific.

Report

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: The Role of Ground Forces in Preventing Hostile Measures Below Armed Conflict in Europe

In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.

Report

Deterrence and Escalation in Competition with Russia: Executive Summary

In this report, the authors seek to understand how the United States might use its military posture in Europe -- particularly focusing on ground forces -- as part of a strategy to deter Russian malign activities in the competition space.

Commentary

Russia's Global Interests and Actions: Growing Reach to Match Rejuvenated Capabilities

This perspective informs the subject of Russia's global ambitions and actions—its key interests and objectives and its foreign policy approaches to pursuing or protecting them.

Commentary

Responsible Space Behavior for the New Space Era: Preserving the Province of Humanity

Humans have explored near-earth space for more than six decades, yet the basic mechanisms for governing space activities have only marginally changed. The authors offer suggestions on how to improve space governance and responsible space behavior.

Journal Article

Nasty, Brutish, and Short—The Future of Space Operations in the Absence of the Rule of Law: Addressing Congestion, Contestation, and Competitiveness in the New Space Era

Existing treaties and laws are not sufficient to govern space given the dramatic growth in space activity. Ensuring a safe, secure, and prosperous space for all nations may require the application of social contract theory to space governance.

Report

RAND Space Launch Virtual Panel

A virtual panel discussion hosted by the RAND Space Enterprise Initiative tackles issues related to the global space launch enterprise.

Research Brief

Multiple Dilemmas for the Joint Force: Joint All-Domain Command and Control

The authors examine potential command and control impediments to multidomain operations and propose alternative models for joint all-domain command and control.

Report

Multiple Dilemmas: Challenges and Options for All-Domain Command and Control

The authors examine potential command-and-control impediments to multidomain operations and propose alternative models for joint all-domain command and control.

Report

At the Vanguard: European Contributions to NATO's Future Combat Airpower

Europe's air forces have the opportunity to make increasingly pronounced contributions to NATO's defense and deterrent posture in combat air campaigns, especially high-intensity operations requiring rapid and large-scale application of airpower.

Report

Promoting Joint Warfighting Proficiency: The Role of Doctrine in Preparing Airmen for Joint Operations

This report describes the differences and similarities between Air Force and joint doctrine and identifies ways to increase doctrinal alignment. It also evaluates the potential role of doctrine in increasing airmen's joint warfighting proficiency.

Commentary

SIGINT for Anyone: The Growing Availability of Signals Intelligence in the Public Domain

This Perspective examines signals intelligence (SIGINT) technologies available outside of government to understand the capabilities they provide and their implications for government policy and practices.

Journal Article

The Russian Space Sector: Adaptation, Retrenchment, and Stagnation

The journey of the Russian space industry since the collapse of the Soviet Union offers a case study in how Russia, in spite of indications to do otherwise, chose not to break with previous models of behavior and organization.