To advance stability and security in space, RAND launched the three-year Duality in Space project in 2024. This report on the first year of the project synthesizes findings from a baseline report, three virtual workshops, and project team engagements with key space stakeholders to characterize the global landscape of dual-use space systems, examine frameworks for identifying these systems, and review current efforts to govern these systems’ use.

Navigating Duality in Space

Establishing a Foundational Understanding of Dual-Use Space Activities

Bruce McClintock, David Glickstein, Krista Langeland, Anca Agachi, Mélusine Lebret, Karen Schwindt

ResearchPublished Jun 9, 2026

Space systems increasingly provide civilian services, such as communications, navigation, and environmental monitoring, while also supporting military and intelligence functions. This inherent duality, in which the same satellite can serve peaceful and militaristic roles, could make satellite activities difficult for governments, militaries, and commercial operators to interpret. As a result, observers could misread potentially benign behaviors as threatening. Misinterpretations pose risks to international security and the peaceful use of outer space because nations could take preemptive or defensive measures that escalate to conflict. Despite these stakes, no international norms or governance framework specifically addresses these risks associated with dual-use space systems.

RAND launched the three-year Duality in Space project in 2024 to establish a foundational understanding of dual-use space activities and develop recommendations for a realistic norms or governance regime that stakeholders could implement and uphold. This report on the project’s first year synthesizes findings from a baseline report, three virtual workshops, and project team engagements to characterize the global landscape of dual-use space systems, examine frameworks for identifying these systems, and review current efforts to govern these systems’ use. The project team offers recommendations to inform norms or governance framework development, emphasizing that the framework should assume the dual-use nature of any space system; focus on observable behaviors and effects; include inputs from the full range of space system stakeholders, including nations with both established and emerging space capabilities, industry, and academic and research communities; and address the lag between innovation and governance.

Key Takeaways

  • Stakeholders broadly perceive space systems as dual use, and no universally accepted definition of dual use exists for space systems.
  • Asymmetries among stakeholders complicate governance design and adoption; nations with emerging or nascent space capabilities may lack representation, and commercial actors may face unclear regulations and guidance.
  • Rapid technological innovation, especially in such dual-use capabilities as on-orbit servicing or autonomous platforms, is outpacing regulation, creating a lag in policy response and gaps in oversight—and there are already apparent security implications.

Recommendations

  • Stakeholders should assume the dual-use nature of space systems and avoid attempts to distinguish dual-use systems from non-dual-use systems.
  • Stakeholders should pursue a behavior- and effect-based framework based on concrete activities to mitigate risks of escalation or conflict. Stakeholders could incorporate factors that are often difficult to discern, such as intent, user identity, and technical design, when they can be definitively established.
  • The process of developing a behavior- and effect-based framework should include inputs from governments, industry, and academic and research communities and prioritize progress over complete consensus.
  • Stakeholders should incorporate timely mechanisms into a behavior- and effect-based framework that addresses short-term risks while allowing for long-term, ongoing reassessment as technologies evolve.

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McClintock, Bruce, David Glickstein, Krista Langeland, Anca Agachi, Mélusine Lebret, and Karen Schwindt, Navigating Duality in Space: Establishing a Foundational Understanding of Dual-Use Space Activities. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA4003-3.html.
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This research was sponsored by Founders Pledge. This work was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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