Patrick Mills

Senior Operations Researcher; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Off Site Office

Education

B.A. and M.S. in industrial engineering, Texas Tech

Overview

Patrick Mills is a senior operations researcher at the RAND Corporation, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. At RAND, Mills has led a range of projects focused on Air Force logistics, basing, posture, Agile Combat Support, and the costs of these. He has developed methodologies and tools focused on Air Force deployment, airfield characteristics, and force sizing and shaping. Some of his recent and current work focuses on operational and support concepts to help the Air Force deploy and employ in more adaptive and agile ways. His work has included projects aimed at the resilience of installations, costs of overseas posture, improving the efficiency and effectiveness of the U.S. military distribution system, sustaining the AEF structure, sustaining the Global Positioning System, and estimating manpower requirements for stability operations. He recently led projects to enhance the operational resilience of the theater-wide posture of U.S. Air Forces, Europe (USAFE), and also of USAFE's equipment prepositioning posture.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Agile Combat Support for Adaptive Basing
USAFE Operations in Contested, Degraded, or Limited Environments
Linking Infrastructure Resources to Readiness
Cost Analysis of Overseas Basing
Cost-Effective Readiness: Air Force Sustainment Surge

Selected Publications

Mills, Patrick, James A. Leftwich, John G. Drew, Daniel P. Felten, Josh Girardini, John P. Godges, Michael J. Lostumbo, Anu Narayanan, Kristin Van Abel, Jonathan W. Welburn, and Anna Jean Wirth, Building Agile Combat Support Competencies to Enable Evolving Adaptive Basing Concepts, (RR-4200), 2020

Lostumbo, Michael J., Michael J. McNerney, Eric Peltz, Derek Eaton, David R. Frelinger, Victoria A. Greenfield, John Halliday, Patrick Mills, Bruce R. Nardulli, Stacie L. Pettyjohn, Jerry M. Sollinger, and Stephen M. Worman, Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits, RAND Corporation (RR-201-OSD), 2013

Mills, Patrick, James A. Leftwich, Kristin Van Abel, and Jason Mastbaum, Estimating Air Force Deployment Requirements for Lean Force Packages: A Methodology and Decision Support Tool Prototype, RAND Corporation (RR-1855-AF), 2017

Mills, Patrick, Muharrem Mane, Kenneth Kuhn, Anu Narayanan, James D. Powers, Peter Buryk, Jeremy M. Eckhause, John G. Drew, and Kristin F. Lynch, Articulating the Effects of Infrastructure Resourcing on Air Force Missions: Competing Approaches to Inform the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System, RAND Corporation (RR-1578-AF), 2017

Mills, Patrick, John G. Drew, John A. Ausink, Daniel M. Romano, and Rachel Costello, Balancing Agile Combat Support Manpower to Better Meet the Future Security Environment, RAND Corporation (RR-337-AF), 2014

Patrick Mills, Sarah A. Nowak, Peter Buryk, John G. Drew, Christopher Guo, Raffaele Vardavas, Increasing Cost-Effective Readiness for the U.S. Air Force by Reducing Supply Chain Variance: Technical Analysis of Flying Hour Program Variance, RAND Corporation (RR-2118), 2018

Honors & Awards

2014 PAF Research Excellence Award, Project AIR FORCE
2012 RAND Bronze Medal Award, RAND

Languages

German

Publications

Report
Fighter Basing Options to Improve Access to Advanced Training Ranges
The authors explore U.S. Air Force squadron restationing and range upgrade options that can maximize access to advanced live training ranges while evaluating cost and risk measures associated with these options.
Feb 5, 2021
Report
Analysis of Global Management of Air Force War Reserve Materiel to Support Operations in Contested and Degraded Environments
In this report, RAND researchers evaluate management approaches and global prepositioning strategies for war reserve materiel, which may help mitigate some of the U.S. military's vulnerabilities when operating in a contested environment.
Jan 14, 2021
Report
Building Agile Combat Support Competencies to Enable Evolving Adaptive Basing Concepts
RAND researchers review the motivations for adaptive basing, describe a footprint model used for estimating its implications for Agile Combat Support (ACS), and discuss recommendations for the ACS community and the U.S. Air Force at large.
Apr 16, 2020
Report
Valuing Air Force Electric Power Resilience: A Framework for Mission-Level Investment Prioritization
This report addresses the U.S. Air Force's need for a systematic way to value the risk to missions associated with electric power--related disruptions and accordingly set priorities among investments in power resilience.
Jun 3, 2019
Report
Enhancing Air Force Materiel Command Support to the Warfighter
This analysis recommends ways the Air Force Materiel Command and its centers, specifically the Air Force Sustainment Center (AFSC) and the Air Force Installation and Mission Support Center (AFIMSC), can adapt and improve support to the warfighter.
Jun 7, 2018
Report
Increasing Cost-Effective Readiness for the U.S. Air Force by Reducing Supply Chain Variance: Technical Analysis of Flying Hour Program Variance
Seeking to reduce the $4 billion that it spends annually on spare parts, the Air Force asked RAND researchers to identify the causes and gauge the effects of flying hour variance (the difference between predicted and actual numbers of flying hours).
Apr 10, 2018
Report
Estimating Air Force Deployment Requirements for Lean Force Packages: A Methodology and Decision Support Tool Prototype
This report describes a methodology and prototype tool -- the Lean Strategic Tool for the Analysis of Required Transportation (Lean-START) -- that can explore trade-offs among capability (or risk), speed, and cost to create force packages for deployment.
Nov 15, 2017
Report
Air Force Installation Energy Assurance: An Assessment Framework
This report presents a framework that mission owners and civil engineers at Air Force installations can use to assess their level of energy assurance.
Nov 6, 2017
Report
Support to the Air Force Installation and Mission Support Center: Enabling AFIMSC's Role in Agile Combat Support Planning, Execution, Monitoring, and Control
This report provides a strategic view of the analytical capabilities that are needed by the Air Force Installation and Mission Support Center to allocate resources to and assess the performance of installation and mission support activities.
Jun 23, 2017
Report
Articulating the Effects of Infrastructure Resourcing on Air Force Missions: Competing Approaches to Inform the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution System
Describes and assesses the strengths and weaknesses of several analytic approaches for linking infrastructure resources to readiness and for articulating the effect of infrastructure underfunding in the Air Force Program Objective Memorandum process.
Apr 17, 2017
Report
Managing U.S. Air Force Aircraft Operating and Support Costs: Insights from Recent RAND Analysis and Opportunities for the Future
To help the Air Force manage rising operating and support (O&S) costs for aircraft, this report describes key findings from previous RAND analyses, discusses current Air Force efforts to address O&S costs, and recommends additional actions.
May 6, 2016
Report
Balancing Agile Combat Support Manpower to Better Meet the Future Security Environment
Uses an enterprise-oriented approach to assess the capacity of the current agile combat support (ACS) manpower mix to support expeditionary operations and assesses the costs and capacity of several rebalanced mixes.
Jun 26, 2014
Report
A Cost Analysis of the U.S. Air Force Overseas Posture: Informing Strategic Choices
Estimates the costs associated with U.S. and overseas Air Force installations and units to provide insight into the costs and benefits of overseas basing.
Sep 16, 2013
Report
Overseas Basing of U.S. Military Forces: An Assessment of Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits
Assesses the advisability of changing the overseas basing presence of U.S. forces based on strategic benefits, risks, and costs. Characterizes how this presence contributes to assurance, deterrence, responsiveness, and security cooperation goals.
Apr 29, 2013
Research Brief
U.S. Overseas Military Posture: Relative Costs and Strategic Benefits
In an environment of fiscal constraints and shifting strategic needs, policymakers should carefully weigh the strategic capability effects, relative costs, and risks associated with potential changes to U.S. overseas military posture.
Apr 29, 2013
Report
Working with Allies and Partners: A Cost-Based Analysis of U.S. Air Forces in Europe
This report characterizes the current policy debate on security cooperation and force posture in Europe, develops a framework to describe the environment for the U.S. Air Force there, and defines alternatives for building partnerships.
Nov 8, 2012
Report
Assessing Capabilities and Risks in Air Force Programming: Framework, Metrics, and Methods
A method for capabilities-based programming is developed to assist the programming of a wide range of resources in light of an uncertain future, expressing capabilities and risks of resource allocations in terms of national planning objectives.
Apr 1, 2009
Report
A Common Operating Picture for Air Force Materiel Sustainment: First Steps
Describes a common operating picture for the Air Force materiel sustainment system that, if implemented, would make the system more efficient and more responsive to changing operational needs.
Jul 24, 2008
Report
Sustaining Air Force Space Systems: A Model for the Global Positioning System
Outlines criteria for analyzing how sustainment investments affect the operational performance of space systems, focusing on the Global Positioning System.
Apr 14, 2007
Research Brief
Sustaining Air Force Space Systems: New Metrics Show How Investments Affect Operational Performance
This research brief describes an analytic framework for predicting how well a space system will perform its operational mission, given various levels of allocated maintenance resources.
Apr 10, 2007
Report
Supporting Air and Space Expeditionary Forces: Expanded Operational Architecture for Combat Support Execution Planning and Control
Develops operational architecture to guide the development of combat support command and control (CSC2).
Aug 31, 2006
Research Brief
Enhancing Airlift Planning and Execution in the Joint Theater Distribution System
This research brief describes how improvements in processes, organization, doctrine, training, and systems can help improve the effective and efficient movement of equipment and personnel in contingency operations.
Jun 28, 2006
Report
A Framework for Enhancing Airlift Planning and Execution Capabilities Within the Joint Expeditionary Movement System
How can the Air Force improve the planning and execution activities associated with developing intratheater airlift operations within the military joint end-to-end multimodal movement system?
May 1, 2006
Research Brief
Measuring Capabilities of Air and Space Expeditionary Forces to Meet Policy Goals and Control Deployments
This research brief summarizes a RAND Project AIR FORCE recommended method for quantifying Air and Space Expeditionary Force capabilities in terms of support and sustainment requirements of potential deployments.
Feb 24, 2006
Report
Supporting Air and Space Expeditionary Forces: Capabilities and Sustainability of Air and Space Expeditionary Forces
Presents a method for assessing Air and Space Expeditionary Force manpower and materiel deployment capabilities and a detailed description of software tools developed by RAND for quantifying deployment capabilities.
Feb 17, 2006
Research Brief
Integrated Operational and Combat Support Planning Will Support Air and Space Expeditionary Forces
This research brief summarizes improvements and shortfalls of the Air Force's combat support command and control (CSC2) architecture and recommends further improvements that will be integral to its continued success.
Jan 19, 2006
Report
Supporting Air and Space Expeditionary Forces: A Methodology for Determining Air Force Deployment Requirements
Describes a prototype research tool for determining manpower and equipment deployment requirements.
Aug 13, 2004
Report
Supporting Expeditionary Aerospace Forces: An Operational Architecture for Combat Support Execution Planning and Control
Defines and analyzes the current command and control architecture for combat support, identifies changes needed in the architecture to meet Aerospace Expeditionary Force goals and correct deficiencies, and sets forth detailed concepts for a future architecture.
2002
Report
Supporting Expeditionary Aerospace Forces: Evaluation of the RAMPOD Database
The report concludes that qualitative and quantitative improvements to RAMPOD could dramatically enhance its effectiveness as both a strategic and an operational tool.
2001