Scott R. Stephenson

Can NATO Supercharge Military Greening?

NATO has taken significant steps to reduce environmental impacts of military activities and has set voluntary emissions reduction targets for its member states. By leveraging its existing standardization processes to encompass a wider range of equipment, supplies, and practices, NATO can solidify its role as the preeminent military leader on climate.

Putin's Actions in Ukraine Are Spilling North

The decision of seven Arctic countries to suspend collaborative work with Russia in the Arctic is by far the most severe and consequential break in cooperation the region has ever seen. This breakdown of Arctic diplomacy could have several important impacts on the region and could potentially threaten the United States as well as its allies.

Engaging with Greenland

Greenland's resources and geographic position would confer economic and strategic value to the United States. But its postcolonial history and unique governance regime complicate the prospect of direct ownership.

Will the Breakdown in U.S.-Russia Cooperation Reach the Arctic?

Over the last few decades, the U.S. and Russia have often found common ground on Arctic affairs, at least in such areas as search and rescue and environmental integrity. The Arctic has the potential to remain resistant to tensions building elsewhere.

Report

Report on the Arctic Capabilities of the U.S. Armed Forces

This report summarizes the findings of research on U.S. and other armed forces' capabilities in the Arctic, the extent to which non-U.S. entities are operating where U.S. forces cannot, and how those operations might affect U.S. national interests.

Report

Accounting for Climate Resilience in Infrastructure Investment Decisionmaking: A Data-Driven Approach for Department of the Air Force Project Prioritization

A new approach allows comparison of infrastructure projects based on their ability to improve installation resilience to climate-related hazards, supporting the Department of the Air Force’s climate resilience investment decisionmaking.

Report

Antarctica at Risk: Geostrategic Manoeuvring and the Future of the Antarctic Treaty System

Leveraging open-source literature and a tabletop exercise, the authors examine the possible implications that geostrategic manoeuvring in the Antarctic in the coming decades might have on the longevity and resilience of the Antarctic Treaty System.

Report

Climate and Readiness: Understanding Climate Vulnerability of U.S. Joint Force Readiness

Maintaining and even increasing force readiness in light of changing climate threats is a key part of meeting high-level U.S. strategic goals. In this report, researchers describe a study they conducted to develop links between climate and readiness.

Journal Article

The Road to Justice40: Organizer and Policymaker Perspectives on the Historical Roots of and Solutions for Environmental Justice Inequities in U.S. Cities

This study characterizes the perceptions of organizers and policymakers regarding how communities experience the causes of environmental injustices in U.S. cities, the characteristics of policies intended to address these injustices, and lessons learned for equitably engaging communities.

Report

A Risk Assessment of National Critical Functions During COVID-19: Challenges and Opportunities

This report presents a framework for assessing risk that the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) poses to the National Critical Functions, describes challenges in implementing the framework, and provides recommendations for improving it.

Tool

Environmental Racism: A Tool for Exploring the Enduring Legacy of Redlining on Urban Environments

Researchers developed an online tool for visualizing the spatial relationships between the discriminatory practice of redlining and exposure to environmental hazards (e.g., pollution, waste sites).

Visualization

Potential Drivers of Crises in the Arctic

Historically in the Arctic, regional tensions have been resolved before turning into major crises. With the Arctic gaining more attention in recent years, are existing governance mechanisms enough to handle future diplomatic challenges?

Journal Article

Arctic Shipping Guidance from the CMIP6 Ensemble on Operational and Infrastructural Timescales

The expectation of a seasonally ice-free Arctic by mid-century has sparked interest in Arctic opportunities and risks. This paper presents a framework for obtaining more timely and salient information to guide decisions relevant to operational and infrastructural horizons.

Report

Exploring Gaps in Arctic Governance: Identifying Potential Sources of Conflict and Mitigating Measures

Arctic states have long cooperated to avoid or mitigate conflict in the region. In this report, researchers identify potential areas of conflict and potential changes to governance mechanisms to help mitigate the identified risks.

Journal Article

The Impact of Black Carbon Emissions from Projected Arctic Shipping on Regional Ice Transport

Diverting shipping emissions from the Suez Canal to the Arctic will influence regional evolution of sea ice cover with regional differences in future sea ice retreat. These results are likely to have policy implications with expansion of industrial activities into the Arctic.

Journal Article

The Opening of the Transpolar Sea Route: Logistical, Geopolitical, Environmental, and Socioeconomic Impacts

Climate models project that a seasonal shipping route via the North Pole may open by mid-century. This paper examines estimates of the route's opening, scenarios for its commercial and logistical development, regional geopolitics, and environmental and socioeconomic consequences.

Journal Article

Quantifying the Relationship Between Streamflow and Climate Change in a Small Basin Under Future Scenarios

This study focuses on simulating change in streamflow within a small basin under future land use/cover change and climate scenarios by integrating logistic regression-CA-Markov model and the Soil Water Assessment Tool model.

Report

Maintaining Arctic Cooperation with Russia: Planning for Regional Change in the Far North

This report examines security challenges that could alter Russia's current cooperative stance in the Arctic, explores how these could undermine Arctic cooperation, and offers recommendations for the U.S. government to manage risks to cooperation.