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Natural Hazards

Losses resulting from natural hazards—including floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, tornadoes, and wildfires—cost billions of dollars each year. RAND research has shown how long-term loss-reduction strategies and disaster preparedness could improve the resilience of communities and infrastructure in the face of natural disasters, resulting in less property damage and reduced rebuilding costs.

Report
Defense Planning Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Central Command
This report examines how U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) planners could use operations, activities, and investments in the coming decades to address security threats related to stressors from climate change in the CENTCOM area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Research Brief
What Climate-Related Conflict Could Mean for U.S. Central Command
Climate change will hit the Middle East and Central Asia especially hard, with effects on both personal well-being and regional stability. It will likely create increased demand for stabilization operations, non-combatant evacuation operations, and humanitarian assistance and disaster relief.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Conflict Projections in U.S. Central Command: Incorporating Climate Change
This report presents an analysis of the impact of climate change on the frequency of conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Pathways from Climate Change to Conflict in U.S. Central Command
This report presents an analysis of the pathways from climate change to conflict and how that relationship is unfolding in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Mischief, Malevolence, or Indifference? How Competitors and Adversaries Could Exploit Climate-Related Conflict in the U.S. Central Command Area of Responsibility
This report presents an analysis of how U.S. competitors and adversaries — China, Russia, and Iran — could attempt to exploit climate-related conflict in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility in future decades.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
A Hotter and Drier Future Ahead: An Assessment of Climate Change in U.S. Central Command
This report characterizes how climate hazards will affect the physical environment in the U.S. Central Command's area of responsibility in 2035, 2050, and 2070.
Nov 29, 2023
Report
Valuing Army Installation Resilience Investments for Natural Hazards: Exploring the Use of Insurance Methods and Historical Installation Storm Damage
In this report, the authors assess Army installation risks from natural hazards and Army resilience investment processes and recommend ways the Army can reduce associated costs based on an analysis of insurance industry methods and historical installation storm damage.
Nov 6, 2023
Report
Incorporating Environmental Considerations into Defense Acquisition Practices
RAND researchers assess the knowledge, tools, and capabilities needed by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition workforce to infuse environmental considerations into DoD requirements, acquisition, and resource allocation decisionmaking.
Oct 19, 2023
Report
How Climate Change Affects the Federal Budget and Legislation
As climate change drives an increase in costly natural disasters, U.S. policymakers need to consider different mitigation policies. Projecting the effects on federal spending and revenue depends on a model that captures important relationships between climate, federal policy, and the economy.
Sep 27, 2023
Commentary
Disaster Recovery Creates Its Own Bubble
Shortages of workers and materials inevitably make rebuilding slower and more expensive after a natural disaster. In Maui, this is likely to be a problem for agencies like FEMA that provide public assistance. But it will also be a problem for individual households if private insurance payouts are insufficient to rebuild.
Sep 20, 2023
Blog
Teacher Pay, the Costs of Insomnia, Wildfire Prevention: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on teachers' dissatisfaction with their pay and work hours, the staggering costs of insomnia, connections between wildfires and food insecurity., and more.
Sep 15, 2023
Commentary
It's Time to Take Societal Resilience Seriously
To build the societal resilience required to respond effectively to everything from climate-related emergencies to pandemics, to intentional state-on-state attacks, and disinformation, a joint approach is needed, not only across government, but across wider society.
Sep 15, 2023
Tool
Strategies to Mitigate the Risks to National Critical Functions Generated by Climate Change
This interactive tool presents climate adaptation strategies identified for each National Critical Function that are capable of mitigating the risks posed by various climate drivers—drought, extreme cold or heat, flooding, sea-level rise, severe storm systems, tropical cyclones and hurricanes, and wildfires.
Sep 13, 2023
Commentary
After Maui Fires, Food Security Is a Major Concern and Opportunity
The full impact of the deadly Maui fires on food resilience strategies remains to be seen. But the disaster highlights an urgent need for a systems-based approach to address both food security and wildfire prevention.
Sep 6, 2023
Blog
The State of Public Education, the Opioid Crisis, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the state of public education in America right now, a missing piece of the strategy for addressing the opioid crisis, emerging technology that could help defend Taiwan, and more.
Sep 1, 2023
Multimedia
Supporting More-Effective Stormwater Management in the Mid-Atlantic Region
RAND researchers Krista Romita Grocholski and Michelle Miro present key information needs for stormwater practitioners in the Mid-Atlantic region and provide recommendations that would support more-effective stormwater planning, design, and management in the face of climate change.
Aug 30, 2023
Commentary
Stormwater Management in the Mid-Atlantic Region
In the Mid-Atlantic region, flooding caused by extreme precipitation has occurred nearly every season since 2018—and the problem is only getting worse. How can stormwater management agencies use information about climate change to better mitigate flood risk and damage?
Aug 30, 2023
Commentary
Much of the Damage in Maui Will Be Invisible, but Very Real
In addition to decimating buildings and other infrastructure, disasters also destroy human capital, the collective knowledge and skills that drive individual economic earnings, as well as regional economic growth. Failing to address these more-hidden damages is incredibly costly.
Aug 21, 2023
Blog
Maui Wildires, Regulating AI, Ukraine's Civilian Resistance: RAND Weekly Recaps
This weekly recap focuses on the invisible damage of Maui’s wildfires, making the artificial intelligence supply chain safer, how Ukrainian civilians resist Russia, and more.
Aug 18, 2023
Report
How Do We Know Whether Federal Disaster Programs Are Equitable?
Some U.S. communities, such as low-income or minority communities, are disproportionately affected by natural disasters. This report presents an initial methodology for how the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities grant program can assess its social equity performance in its activities aimed at reducing damage and easing recovery with predisaster actions.
Jul 25, 2023

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RAND Topic:
Natural Hazards

Topic Synonyms:
Natural Disasters

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Patrick S. Roberts

Senior Political Scientist

Patrick S. Roberts is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, with a focus on public management and governance processes. He has substantive expertise in homeland security, intelligence and national security, cybersecurity, disaster risk, and emergency management. His work helps…
Gabriel Leonard

Research Assistant

Gabriel Leonard is a quantitative research assistant at the RAND Corporation. He has a broad academic background, specializing in research at the intersection of economics, environmental policy, and quantitative methods. At RAND, Leonard leverages his economic intuition, strong writing and…

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