Great powers rarely fail because they are unaware of their problems. More often, they fall apart because they misidentify or only partially identify the root of those problems. The ability to accurately diagnose weaknesses, to distinguish between temporary constraints and structural limits, and to generate the political will to fix deep-seated problems separates states that adapt and thrive from those that stagnate or crumble.
China today faces an imposing list of challenges that it needs to assess and address. Economic growth is slowing, the population is aging, the financial system is under stress, and other countries have been tightening trade controls and scaling up their own industrial policies to compete. For many years, China’s economic expansion could mask the country’s underlying vulnerabilities. That era is now over. And in party documents and major speeches alike, leaders in Beijing admit these pressures and acknowledge the country’s weaknesses.
But recognition is not diagnosis, nor does it automatically translate into meaningful action. Beijing describes China’s challenges as technical, developmental, or externally imposed rather than products of systemic problems. This distinction is strategic. It downplays political and institutional vulnerabilities that are causing the issues or making them worse, including the concentration of authority in the hands of Chinese leader Xi Jinping, tensions between central directives and local implementation, misaligned incentives between leaders and rank-and-file cadres, and a demand for ideological rigidity that leaves limited room for feedback or policy correction. …
The remainder of this commentary is available on foreignaffairs.com.
