Download
Download eBook for Free
Format | File Size | Notes |
---|---|---|
PDF file | 5.3 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
Purchase
Purchase Print Copy
Format | List Price | Price | |
---|---|---|---|
Add to Cart | Paperback92 pages | $30.00 | $24.00 20% Web Discount |
The most likely setting for the world's first nuclear war, observers generally agree, is South Asia, where India and Pakistan harbor small, undeclared nuclear arsenals and deep, often-declared mutual animosity. Chartered to determine whether and how the tense stability that now marks India-Pakistan relations might break down, this project identifies several paths to conventional and perhaps nuclear war. Neither country's view of nuclear weapons and warfare seems likely to produce the deterrent stability that marked the mature superpower relationship of the Cold War; rather, each sees some value in brandishing nuclear weapons in ways that could contribute to instability in a crisis. Nor are crises difficult to envision. In the near- to mid-term, the unconventional conflict that now simmers around Kashmir will continue, and could unexpectedly escalate to major conventional war. In the longer run, growing relative economic and military power could tempt India to launch a premeditated attack on Pakistan, should the latter not reach an accommodation with India before then. The study found that India and Pakistan both assume that outside powers, mainly the United States, will intervene to stop any major war on the subcontinent within two weeks after it begins. Should one of them launch a war on the basis of that assumption only to discover that it is incorrect, misperceptions of U.S. policy will have contributed to instability and raised the possibility of nuclear use as the war proceeds.
Research conducted by
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Documented briefing series. RAND documented briefings are based on research presented to a client, sponsor, or targeted audience in briefing format. Additional information is provided in the documented briefing in the form of the written narration accompanying the briefing charts. All RAND documented briefings undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity. However, they are not expected to be comprehensive and may present preliminary findings. Major research findings are published in the monograph series; supporting or preliminary research is published in the technical report series.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.