Attrition Models of the Ardennes Campaign

Published in: Naval Research Logistics, v. 45, no. 1, Feb. 1998, p. 1-22

Posted on on January 01, 1998

by Ronald D. Fricker

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This paper revisits the modeling by Bracken of the Ardennes campaign of World War II using the Lanchester equations. It revises and extends that analysis in a number of ways: (1) It more accurately fits the model parameters using linear regression; (2) it considers the data from the entire campaign; and (3) it adds in air sortie data. In contrast to previous results, it concludes by showing that neither the Lanchester linear or Lanchester square laws fit the data. A new form of the Lanchester equations emerges with a physical interpretation.

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