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Modeling and Simulation

Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report

Report

Next-Generation Wargaming for the U.S. Marine Corps: Recommended Courses of Action

The authors evaluate wargaming tools as the U.S. Marine Corps invests in its next-generation wargaming concept. The authors describe wargaming processes, facilities, and skill sets and recommend courses of action.

Oct 16, 2019
Commentary

I Run Wargames. Too Often, I Am the Only Woman in the Room

Wargaming has long been a male domain and has significant barriers to entry, retention, and advancement. You can't learn by reading; you have to learn by doing. Failing to include women in all wargaming roles risks missing out on innovative strategies.

Sep 26, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Sacramento Area Council of Governments Peer Review

This is a peer review of Robust Decision Making, an exploratory modeling approach for informing decisions under deep uncertainty, and the Exploratory Analysis and Modeling Tool, focusing applications for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments.

Sep 25, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession

This paper sheds new light on the importance of home production in welfare analyses by focusing on the elasticity of substitution estimated over the retired population, thus holding constant non-work time, but also on the share of spending that is potentially substitutable.

Sep 20, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Long-term Associations Between Substance Use-Related Media Exposure, Descriptive Norms, and Alcohol Use from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

This study uses advances in longitudinal modeling to extend our understanding of how exposure to substance-related media content, quantity of alcohol use, and perceived descriptive norms about alcohol use are reciprocally related over time.

Sep 19, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Optimally Balanced Gaussian Process Propensity Scores for Estimating Treatment Effects

This paper introduces a new approach to estimating the propensity score using Gaussian processes and optimizing hyperparameters with respect to covariate balance.

Sep 19, 2019
Research Brief

Why Understanding 'Will to Fight' Is Crucial

Arguably, will to fight is the most important factor in war. The best technology in the world is useless without the force of will to use it and to keep using it even as casualties mount and unexpected calamities arise. Ignoring will to fight can contribute to tactical or even strategic defeat.

Sep 13, 2019
Report

Report

Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning

This report presents a historical review of defense strategic planning, with a focus on the factors that have shaped defense planning scenarios and strategic analysis in the Department of Defense in an aim to improve scenario use in defense planning.

Sep 5, 2019
Report

Report

The tanKer Aerial Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA)

This report describes the algorithms used in the tanKer Air Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA) and explains how to use the model. KARMA simulates the extent to which a tanker force can aerially refuel combat aircraft in a denied environment.

Sep 4, 2019
Report

Report

Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force: Total Force Blue Line Model for Rated Officer Management

Managing the flow of Air Force rated officers has become more challenging. In this report, the authors document their efforts to develop a long-term career field planning model for all rated officers across the Total Force.

Sep 4, 2019
Periodical

Periodical

RAND Review: September-October 2019

This issue spotlights a wargame designed for young women interested in national security; ethics in scientific research, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence and machine learning; and community citizen science.

Aug 26, 2019
Essay

A Wargame at RAND Puts Teen Girls in Command

RAND analysts developed and hosted a wargame to help young women learn firsthand about national security. It's a lesson in strategy, in the hard realities behind news headlines, but also in agility and resilience. In that, it's not so far removed from the daily life of a teenage girl.

Aug 20, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Climate Vulnerability Mapping: A Systematic Review and Future Prospects

This paper presents the results of a systematic review of 84 studies that map social vulnerability to climate impacts in order to identify common approaches to mapping, evaluate their strengths and limitations, and offer recommendations and future directions for the field.

Aug 6, 2019
Report

Measuring Health Care Utilization in Medicare Advantage Encounter Data: Methods, Estimates, and Considerations for Research

This report describes methodologies, estimates, and technical considerations related to measuring health care utilization in Medicare Part C encounter data.

Jul 25, 2019
Report

Report

Independent Review and Assessment of the Air Force Ready Aircrew Program: A Description of the Model Used for Sensitivity Analysis

This report outlines a computational model to measure whether flying units can feasibly meet U.S. Air Force continuation training requirements, presents the model's specifications, and describes how it was used to assess the Ready Aircrew Program.

Jul 15, 2019
Report

NATO's Amphibious Forces: Command and Control of a Multibrigade Alliance Task Force

RAND researchers facilitated three wargaming events to explore command and control of NATO's amphibious forces in major combat operations. The authors note results and implications for future force development.

Jun 27, 2019
Report

Report

A new travel demand model for London: Estimation of the mode and destination choice models

RAND Europe and partners were commissioned by Transport for London (TfL) to develop a new strategic travel model for London, the New Demand Model (NDM). This report documents RAND Europe's work to develop new mode-destination choice models.

Jun 19, 2019
Commentary

AVs Could Improve Transportation Access in 'Transit Deserts'

More large U.S. cities are seeing their outer reaches turn into transit deserts, where demand for transportation vastly exceeds supply. Connecting public transit systems with automated vehicles, whether in ride-sharing or shuttle services, could be a solution.

May 31, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Evaluation of Walk and Bicycle Demand Modeling Practice

An evaluation of the current state of research and practice in regional pedestrian and bicycle demand modelling for both commute and noncommute trips. The results of the study were connected to planning needs and practice.

May 16, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

External Threat, Internal Rivalry, and Alliance Formation

Coalitions of rivals, while formidable against common threats, may find it difficult or impossible to avoid struggles among themselves even if they share an enemy.

May 15, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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