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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report

Graph Theoretic Algorithms for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Program

Nov 8, 2021

The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent is a complete replacement for an aging intercontinental ballistic missile system that is currently under development. What are quantitative methods that can be used to make the unified certification process for nuclear systems more rigorous and efficient?
Report

New Model Helps Predict Cyber Threats and Improve Resilience

May 11, 2021

Today's evolving cyber threats require a tailored and targeted approach to cybersecurity. Current defenses focus on managing threats after a network has been breached. RAND's Scalable Warning and Resilience Model (SWARM) can help defenders proactively protect their systems through early warning of cyber incidents before they occur.

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Essay

Tracking Migration Amid War and Disease

Researchers from RAND and RAND Europe have been working on a way to better track migrant numbers, country by country and state by state, in almost real time. They do it by tapping into one of the largest information-gathering operations on the planet, Facebook.

Apr 28, 2022
Journal Article

Optimal Allocation of Seats in the Presence of Peer Effects: Evidence from a Job Training Program

We model optimal treatment assignment in programs with a limited number of seats and study how the presence of peer effects impact the optimal allocation rule and us data from an RCT to show there are peer effects in the job training context.

Mar 29, 2022
Commentary

Is Putin Irrational? What Nuclear Strategic Theory Says About Deterrence of Potentially Irrational Opponents

Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Putin might double down and lash out.

Mar 8, 2022
Commentary

Developing a Winning Safety Strategy for Automated Vehicles

When policy problems involve many different groups with diverging interests along with significant uncertainty about the future, games can be a valuable way to explore the potential consequences of important policy decisions. What could gaming bring to the area of AV safety?

Feb 18, 2022
Report

Suggestions for Estimating the Effects of State Gun Policies: Commentary on Four Methodological Problems in the Current Literature

In this report, the authors discuss four common methodological problems that they observed in the literature evaluating gun policies and offer suggestions for how future research on gun policies could be improved.

Feb 15, 2022
Journal Article

Artificial Intelligence for Wargaming and Modeling

We discuss how AI can be used in modeling, simulation, wargaming, and combinations thereof, focusing largely on the strategic political-military level.

Feb 15, 2022
Journal Article

Assessing Meaningful Community Engagement: A Conceptual Model to Advance Health Equity Through Transformed Systems for Health

This commentary will describe how the Organizing Committee arrived at the conceptual model, the critical content that the model contains and expresses, and how the model can be used to assess meaningful community engagement.

Feb 15, 2022
Brochure

Roadmap of Scalable Analytic Methods

Scalable analytic methods refers to a collection of data-intensive methods, including artificial intelligence, machine learning, big data, and data science. This infographic illustrates how these methods relate to traditional analytical approaches.

Feb 9, 2022
Journal Article

An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

This paper discusses how wargaming can be used as part of an analysis campaign in a sequence of model-game-model activities, always with the intent to assist analysis.

Jan 20, 2022
Journal Article

A Fairness Evaluation of Automated Methods for Scoring Text Evidence Usage in Writing

We compare three types of Automated Essay Scoring models with respect to algorithmic fairness. Our results indicate that different models exhibit different types of biases, spanning students' gender, race, and socioeconomic status.

Jan 12, 2022
Tool

Identifying and Planning for Vulnerabilities in the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District’s Water Management Plans

This interactive tool presents the results of a study that evaluated the performance of the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District water plans under a range of future conditions, including climate change, drought occurrence, and water demand.

Jan 6, 2022
Blog

What Sounds Do a Million Random Digits Make?

The title of RAND's 1955 classic, A Million Random Digits with 100,000 Normal Deviates, doesn't exactly dance off the page. But Paul Dunham, a sound artist in New Zealand, thought the work could make its own kind of music.

Jan 5, 2022
Journal Article

A Dynamic Behavioral Model of Korean Saving, Work, and Benefit Claiming Decisions

We develop a model that captures elements of the South Korean National Pension Scheme and behavioral responses in labor supply, savings and benefit claiming to changes in the public pension system using a sample of married couples nearing retirement.

Dec 21, 2021
Journal Article

Adaptive Water Management in the Face of Uncertainty: Integrating Machine Learning, Groundwater Modeling and Robust Decision Making

This study examines climate change and water resources management challenges facing water suppliers in drought-prone regions.

Dec 21, 2021
Report

Using social media data to 'nowcast' international migration around the globe

The aim of this study was to develop a tool to 'nowcast' migrant stocks by using real-time data from the Facebook Marketing Application Programming Interface (API) and official migration data from EU member states and states in the United States.

Dec 16, 2021
Journal Article

Moving Beyond the Classic Difference-In-Differences Model: A Simulation Study Comparing Statistical Methods for Estimating Effectiveness of State-Level Policies

Researchers conducted an extensive simulation study to compare the statistical performance of commonly used methods for evaluating state-level opioid policies, including popular difference-in-differences methods.

Dec 15, 2021
Journal Article

Health Disparities in the U.S. Gulf Coast: The Interplay of Environmental Disaster, Material Loss, and Residential Segregation

We study the interrelationships between health, residential segregation, and disaster-related material losses (income loss, job loss, economic/property damages) due to the worst ever man-made disaster of its kind, the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Dec 15, 2021
News Release

Greater Adoption of Telemedicine Could Reap Benefits for the Canadian Economy of Nearly 6 Billion CAD Annually

Increasing the use of telemedicine in Canada through teleconsultations between patients and their primary care provider could lead to benefits for patients, society, and the economy. The economic value of time saved, through fewer hours spent on traveling to appointments and waiting, could be up to 5 billion CAD alone each year.

Dec 6, 2021
Report

The potential socio-economic impact of telemedicine in Canada

This study examined the potential impact in Canada of continued, long-term use of telemedicine. Researchers found that widespread use of teleconsultations could lead to significant benefits for patients, the economy and wider society.

Dec 6, 2021
Research Brief

Greater adoption of telemedicine could offer economic and social benefits for Canada

This brief summarises the potential impact of increased, long-term telemedicine use in Canada. It was found that teleconsultations could boost the economy in terms of cost savings from fewer missed appointments and visits to emergency departments, and a reduction in travel times for patients.

Dec 6, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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