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Modeling and Simulation

Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Journal Article

Journal Article

Inpatient Care Experiences Differ by Preferred Language Within Racial/Ethnic Groups

We described differences in patient experiences of hospital care by preferred language within racial/ethnic groups using HCAHPS survey data. We measured patient-mix adjusted overall, between-and within-hospital differences inpatient experience by language, using linear regression.

Mar 18, 2020
Blog

I'll Take RAND Researchers on Game Shows for $400, Alex

Did you know that RAND researchers have appeared on game shows? Pam Mueller and two teammates took third in the Jeopardy! All-Star Games. Richard Mason has won about $85,000 on many different shows. He and Walter Nelson both won Ben Stein's money.

Mar 16, 2020
News Release

News Release

RAND Report Examines Ways to Compare the U.S. Army's Suicide Rate with the General U.S. Population

The U.S. Army should use an expanded set of demographic factors when comparing suicide rates to those in the general population to get a more accurate comparison.

Mar 13, 2020
Commentary

Estimates of COVID-19's Fatality Rate Might Change. And Then Change Again.

With infections of the new coronavirus confirmed in countries around the world, people are following the daily tally of COVID-19 cases, wondering exactly how lethal this new disease is. The truth is, it's hard to know.

Mar 11, 2020
Report

Comparing the Army's Suicide Rate to the General Population's

The U.S. Army has typically compared its suicide rate with that of the general population while adjusting for age, gender, and yearly differences. But there are additional factors related to suicide that should be considered: race/ethnicity, educational attainment, and marital status.

Mar 10, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Implementing an Adaptive Intelligent Tutoring System as an Instructional Supplement

This article studies the implementation of ALEKS (Assessment and LEarning in Knowledge Spaces) in a blended-learning model. This is the first rigorous experimental evaluation of ALEKS in K–12 in-school settings, and the first to gather extensive implementation data.

Mar 10, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Quantifying the Relationship Between Streamflow and Climate Change in a Small Basin Under Future Scenarios

This study focuses on simulating change in streamflow within a small basin under future land use/cover change and climate scenarios by integrating logistic regression-CA-Markov model and the Soil Water Assessment Tool model.

Mar 6, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Heterogeneous Effects of Early Algebra Across California Middle Schools

In this paper, we argue that, in order to understand the effects of 8th-grade algebra courses, it is essential to explicitly model cross-school variation in the effects of course exposure.

Mar 6, 2020
Commentary

The Costs of Brexit Uncertainty

It may be tempting to think that Brexit is now done. But the UK's formal departure from the EU in late January was only the end of the beginning. And uncertainty is likely to affect the UK's economic performance moving forward.

Mar 3, 2020
Brochure

A focus on gaming for research

Serious games can be used to explore a variety of policy issues, from defence and national security, to disaster response and health policy. A focus on gaming highlights RAND Europe's expertise in applying this method to different policy questions.

Feb 26, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.

Feb 11, 2020
Commentary

Book Review: 'A Game of Birds and Wolves' by Simon Parkin

In A Game of Birds and Wolves, journalist Simon Parkin reports on a long overlooked piece of World War II's Battle of the Atlantic. Captain Gilbert Roberts enlisted the Women's Royal Naval Service to build and run a game modeling a two-sided tactical fight between British escorts and German U-boats.

Jan 30, 2020
Commentary

Belt and Road: Economic Gain Is Possible for All

China's true motivations for its Belt and Road Initiative may still be unclear. But the West could consider the initiative's potential to deliver sustained economic, social, and environmental benefits for all, and find ways to support infrastructure improvements in the countries involved.

Jan 30, 2020
Report

Further Trade Uncertainty Due to Brexit Could Cost UK Billions

The UK's official departure from the EU only ends the first phase of trade uncertainty related to Brexit. Costs to the UK economy are likely to continue during the UK–EU renegotiation period and will increase over time. By the end of 2020, UK GDP could decrease by $5.5 billion (£4.4bn).

Jan 28, 2020
Multimedia

What Are the Potential Economic Implications of Prolonged UK–EU Trade Policy Uncertainty?

In this Call with the Experts podcast, RAND researchers discuss the potential economic implications of prolonged trade policy uncertainty associated with the renegotiation period between the UK and EU after Brexit.

Jan 24, 2020
Commentary

What Chess Can Teach Us About the Future of AI and War

Will artificial intelligence (AI) change warfare? It's hard to say. AI itself is not new, but AI as a critical factor in competitions is relatively novel and, as a result, there's not much data to draw from. Perhaps the most interesting examples are in the world of chess.

Jan 3, 2020
Dissertation

Dissertation

A Need for Speed? Identifying the Effects of Space Acquisition Timelines on Space Deterrence and Conflict Outcomes

Investigates the link between acquisition timelines and space conflict using a mixed-methods approach of game-theoretic modeling and case study analysis.

Dec 24, 2019
Tool

Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial on the TWANG Shiny App for Two Treatments

This tutorial describes how to use a menu-driven Shiny app based on the Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups (TWANG) R package. It can be used to estimate propensity score weights and treatment effects for binary treatments.

Dec 19, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Culture and Cognition: Understanding Public Perceptions of Risk and (In)Action

This model demonstrates how cognitive structure, cultural schema, and environment awareness could be combined to improve risk communication. Case studies: one on decision makers facing extreme heat, and another on homeowners facing flood events.

Dec 12, 2019
Report

How to Counter Russia's Gray Zone Tactics

Russia uses gray zone tactics—ambiguous actions that target domestic or international public opinion—across Europe. Wargames found that vulnerability to these tactics varies. And they can be countered by hardening Western societies against Russian propaganda and attempts to undermine democracy.

Dec 11, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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