Skip to page content

Modeling and Simulation

Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Commentary

What Chess Can Teach Us About the Future of AI and War

Will artificial intelligence (AI) change warfare? It's hard to say. AI itself is not new, but AI as a critical factor in competitions is relatively novel and, as a result, there's not much data to draw from. Perhaps the most interesting examples are in the world of chess.

Jan 3, 2020
Dissertation

Dissertation

A Need for Speed? Identifying the Effects of Space Acquisition Timelines on Space Deterrence and Conflict Outcomes

Investigates the link between acquisition timelines and space conflict using a mixed-methods approach of game-theoretic modeling and case study analysis.

Dec 24, 2019
Tool

Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial on the TWANG Shiny App for Two Treatments

This tutorial describes how to use a menu-driven Shiny app based on the Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups (TWANG) R package. It can be used to estimate propensity score weights and treatment effects for binary treatments.

Dec 19, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Culture and Cognition: Understanding Public Perceptions of Risk and (In)Action

This model demonstrates how cognitive structure, cultural schema, and environment awareness could be combined to improve risk communication. Case studies: one on decision makers facing extreme heat, and another on homeowners facing flood events.

Dec 12, 2019
Report

How to Counter Russia's Gray Zone Tactics

Russia uses gray zone tactics—ambiguous actions that target domestic or international public opinion—across Europe. Wargames found that vulnerability to these tactics varies. And they can be countered by hardening Western societies against Russian propaganda and attempts to undermine democracy.

Dec 11, 2019
Report

Report

Gaming Gray Zone Tactics: Design Considerations for a Structured Strategic Game

The RAND Arroyo Center developed a strategic-level structured card game examining a gray zone competition between Russia and the West in the Balkans to better understand the nature of a gray zone competition with Russia.

Dec 11, 2019
Report

Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.

Oct 24, 2019
Journal Article

Flood Damage Reduction Benefits and Costs in Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan

This article builds on the modeling analysis conducted for Louisiana's 2017 Coastal Master Plan. We use the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model to project coastal flood damage over time under different scenarios and with the master plan implemented.

Oct 23, 2019
Report

Next-Generation Wargaming for the U.S. Marine Corps

The U.S. Marine Corps has an opportunity to adopt wargaming best practices, tools, and approaches from other sources and adapt them to suit its needs. What courses of action should the Marine Corps take toward building its next-generation wargaming concept?

Oct 16, 2019
Blog

China's 70th Anniversary, Wargaming, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on what the future holds for China, the importance of gender diversity in wargaming, how Army families address life's challenges, and more.

Oct 4, 2019
Journal Article

Sacramento Area Council of Governments Peer Review

This is a peer review of Robust Decision Making, an exploratory modeling approach for informing decisions under deep uncertainty, and the Exploratory Analysis and Modeling Tool, focusing applications for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments.

Sep 25, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession

This paper sheds new light on the importance of home production in welfare analyses by focusing on the elasticity of substitution estimated over the retired population, thus holding constant non-work time, but also on the share of spending that is potentially substitutable.

Sep 20, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Long-term Associations Between Substance Use-Related Media Exposure, Descriptive Norms, and Alcohol Use from Adolescence to Young Adulthood

This study uses advances in longitudinal modeling to extend our understanding of how exposure to substance-related media content, quantity of alcohol use, and perceived descriptive norms about alcohol use are reciprocally related over time.

Sep 19, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Optimally Balanced Gaussian Process Propensity Scores for Estimating Treatment Effects

This paper introduces a new approach to estimating the propensity score using Gaussian processes and optimizing hyperparameters with respect to covariate balance.

Sep 19, 2019
Research Brief

Why Understanding 'Will to Fight' Is Crucial

Arguably, will to fight is the most important factor in war. The best technology in the world is useless without the force of will to use it and to keep using it even as casualties mount and unexpected calamities arise. Ignoring will to fight can contribute to tactical or even strategic defeat.

Sep 13, 2019
Report

Report

Force Planning Scenarios, 1945–2016: Their Origins and Use in Defense Strategic Planning

This report presents a historical review of defense strategic planning, with a focus on the factors that have shaped defense planning scenarios and strategic analysis in the Department of Defense in an aim to improve scenario use in defense planning.

Sep 5, 2019
Report

The tanKer Aerial Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA)

This report describes the algorithms used in the tanKer Air Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA) and explains how to use the model. KARMA simulates the extent to which a tanker force can aerially refuel combat aircraft in a denied environment.

Sep 4, 2019
Report

Report

Projecting Air Force Rated Officer Inventory Across the Total Force: Total Force Blue Line Model for Rated Officer Management

Managing the flow of Air Force rated officers has become more challenging. In this report, the authors document their efforts to develop a long-term career field planning model for all rated officers across the Total Force.

Sep 4, 2019
Blog

Synthetic Opioids, Mass Shootings, Prison Education: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap looks at fentanyl and other synthetic opioids, how to address mass shootings, higher education in prison, and more.

Aug 30, 2019
Periodical

Periodical

RAND Review: September-October 2019

This issue spotlights a wargame designed for young women interested in national security; ethics in scientific research, particularly in areas such as artificial intelligence and machine learning; and community citizen science.

Aug 26, 2019

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Next

RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

Research conducted by