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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report
Graph Theoretic Algorithms for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Program
The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent is a complete replacement for an aging intercontinental ballistic missile system that is currently under development. What are quantitative methods that can be used to make the unified certification process for nuclear systems more rigorous and efficient?
Nov 8, 2021
Report
New Model Helps Predict Cyber Threats and Improve Resilience
Today's evolving cyber threats require a tailored and targeted approach to cybersecurity. Current defenses focus on managing threats after a network has been breached. RAND's Scalable Warning and Resilience Model (SWARM) can help defenders proactively protect their systems through early warning of cyber incidents before they occur.
May 11, 2021

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Report
Optimizing Portfolio-Level Modernization Investment: An Overview of the Aim Point Investment Model (APIM)
This report introduces the Aim Point Investment Model, which helps decisionmakers allocate portfolio-level resources based on existing Army data sources, subject to constraints on the U.S. Army's ability to employ those resources productively.
Mar 27, 2023
Report
What Taiwan's Dominance in Semiconductor Production Means for the U.S.
Semiconductors have become an integral part of nearly every industry. Production of the highest-end semiconductors exists almost entirely in Taiwan. If China were to unify with Taiwan, there are no good short-term options for responding to the disruption that would cause to the global semiconductor supply chain.
Mar 13, 2023
Journal Article
A New Ethical Principle for Analysts Who Use Models
Analysts have long embraced the ethic of revealing assumptions that underlie their conclusions. Analysts should preemptively explain how their conclusions vary with changes of important assumptions reflecting uncertainties and disagreements.
Mar 3, 2023
Report
The relationship between research spending and research performance: A cross-country and in-depth study
This study investigates the relationship between spending and research performance through an econometric analysis and also investigates potential nonlinearities in the relationship between spending and performance through a series of case studies.
Feb 22, 2023
Journal Article
Broad and Selectively Deep: An MRMPM Paradigm for Supporting Analysis
To aid policy analysis and decision making, projects should use models and simulations of varied resolution and perspective. This can improve analysis, improve communication, and provide a broad view, necessary detail, and alternative views.
Feb 21, 2023
Journal Article
Optimal Non-Pharmaceutical Pandemic Response Strategies Depend Critically on Time Horizons and Costs
This paper performs a large-scale optimization exercise to find optimal non-pharmaceutical pandemic response strategies.
Feb 14, 2023
Blog
The War in Ukraine, Software Supply Chain Risk, 'Hacking Equity': RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on lessons about defense strategy from the war in Ukraine, U.S.-France cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, software supply chain risk, and more.
Feb 3, 2023
Report
A Cost Estimating Framework for U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons
To help improve leadership decisionmaking related to the costs of offensive cyber operations acquisition, the authors developed a life-cycle cost-estimating framework for the U.S. Marine Corps and conducted exploratory modeling and simulation.
Feb 2, 2023
Report
First Mover Typology for the Space Domain: Building a Foundation for Future Analysis
The authors offer a categorization and nuanced views of first moves in military strategy as a basis for understanding and further analysis of first mover advantage in the space domain.
Jan 25, 2023
Tool
Chesapeake Bay Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST)
The Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST) is an interactive, searchable database of empirical, statistical, and conceptual models relevant to water- and climate-related planning and decisionmaking in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and beyond.
Jan 19, 2023
Report
Common Authorized Stockage Lists for the U.S. Army's Brigade Combat Teams
Mathematical optimization of a common, periodically updated authorized stockage list for each of the U.S. Army's three types of ground brigade combat teams provides improved performance in support of equipment readiness and reduced transition costs.
Jan 19, 2023
Essay
Hackathon Focuses on Making Policing More Equitable
Hackathons bring new ideas and perspectives to hard policy problems and introduce college students to the field of policy analysis. The latest hackathon, hosted by Pardee RAND and RAND NextGen, explored ways to make the criminal justice system more equitable and more effective.
Jan 9, 2023
Report
Accounting for Black-White Wealth Differences
Wealth accumulation is not solely determined by a person's choices and ability. Many factors affect individual wealth, including parental income, credit, and systemic discrimination. These factors have a cumulative effect and can lead to persistent disparities over generations.
Dec 7, 2022
Report
Overcoming Compound Racial Inequity
Differences in Black and white Americans' economic status show how the harms of the past—slavery, segregation, discrimination—live on in the present. Could wealth allocations help to close the racial wealth gap?
Dec 7, 2022
Report
An Enterprise Cost-Effectiveness Approach to Decisionmaking: Improving Analytic Support to Senior Defense Leaders
The authors propose analytic and programmatic frameworks to explore potential cost-per-effect measures, assess those measures with an enterprise cost-effectiveness approach, and chart a roadmap to add a joint focus in future Air Force decisionmaking.
Dec 5, 2022
Journal Article
Documenting the Modeling Process with a Standardized Data Structure Described and Implemented in DynamicVu
This article proposes a data structure and its methods for documenting the process of building a simulation model.
Dec 1, 2022
Journal Article
Rigorously Interpreted Quotation Analysis for Evaluating Causal Loop Diagrams in Late-Stage Conceptualization
This article describes a formal method for evaluating a causal loop diagram (CLD) in late-stage conceptualization—referred to as rigorously interpreted quotation analysis—and illustrates its application in a case study.
Dec 1, 2022
Research Brief
Activities and Results from U.S. Coast Guard Project Evergreen V
This brief summarizes the findings of U.S. Coast Guard Project Evergreen V, part of a long-term strategic planning effort to identify emerging challenges and future trends that might alter demand for missions and the ability to perform them.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
USCG Project Evergreen V: Compilation of Activities and Summary of Results
This report summarizes the findings of Evergreen V, the most recent iteration of an ongoing U.S. Coast Guard initiative aimed at identifying emerging challenges and future trends so that senior leaders can plan for the long term.
Nov 30, 2022
Journal Article
Partially Different? The Importance of General Equilibrium in Health Economic Evaluations: An Application to Nocturia
The main findings of this study highlight the magnitude of general equilibrium effects when assessing the potential productivity costs associated with health conditions.
Nov 29, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Anthony Vassalo

Intelligence Community Portfolio Lead, RAND National Security Research Division

Anthony Vassalo is a senior international/defense policy researcher, and the Intelligence Community portfolio lead for the RAND National Security Research Division. His research areas include international security, U.S. national security strategy, risk, deterrence, counterterrorism, and the…
Lane F. Burgette

Senior Statistician

Lane Burgette is a senior statistician at the RAND Corporation. He is also a faculty member at Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research focus is causal inference and Bayesian modeling in the health and social sciences.

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