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Modeling and Simulation

Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

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How can crowd behaviour modelling be used to prevent and respond to violence and antisocial behaviour at Qatar 2022?

This case study explores the potential for crowd behaviour modelling to inform crowd management strategies to minimise the risk of violent or antisocial behaviour taking place during the 2022 FIFA World Cup, and to reduce harm if it does take place.

Dec 11, 2018
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Evaluating Methods to Estimate the Effect of State Laws on Firearm Deaths: A Simulation Study

As part of the RAND Corporation's Gun Policy in America initiative, the authors use simulations to assess the performance of a wide range of statistical models used to estimate the effects of state gun policies on firearm deaths.

Dec 10, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Surface Heat Assessment for Developed Environments: Probabilistic Urban Temperature Modeling

We describe how fine resolution simulations of historic extreme heat events are generated and used to train a probabilistic spatio-temporal model of the temperature distribution in an urban area.

Nov 28, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Surface Heat Assessment for Developed Environments: Optimizing Urban Temperature Monitoring

A variety of metrics are used to optimize the placement of temperature measures to best support decision-making for monitoring and responding to extreme heat risk. This optimal sensor placement methodology is demonstrated for Pittsburgh.

Nov 27, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Hidden-Model Processes for Adaptive Management Under Uncertain Climate Change

This paper proposes a set of optimization procedures based on the Markov decision process (MDP) framework to support decision making depending on the assumed learning rate.

Nov 27, 2018
Blog

RAND Hosts Forum on 21st-Century Warfare Honoring Roberta Wohlstetter

National security experts, flag officers, and decisionmakers attended the Roberta Wohlstetter Forum on National Security at RAND's Washington office on October 24. The featured speakers, moderators, organizers, donor, and namesake for the event were all women.

Nov 26, 2018
Commentary

Building a Pipeline of Wargaming Talent: A Two-Track Solution

How does the Department of Defense imagine the future of war and make long-term investments to confront the challenges ahead? On issues ranging from potential conflicts with Russia to the future of transportation and logistics, senior leaders have increasingly turned to wargames to imagine potential futures.

Nov 15, 2018
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Evaluating interventions that prevent or counter violent extremism: A practical guide

This document provides an overview of data collection methods and evaluation designs suitable for evaluating interventions and programmes designed to prevent and counter violent extremism and radicalisation.

Oct 30, 2018
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Realigning the Stars: A Methodology for Reviewing Active Component General and Flag Officer Requirements

The authors developed and employed a methodology to review general and flag officer requirements in the U.S. military, used results to identify opportunities to eliminate or downgrade positions, and explored the implications of reductions.

Oct 22, 2018
Commentary

We Asked the British Public What Kind of Brexit They Want—and a Norway-Like Deal Is the Clear Winner

The Brexit referendum outcome reveals very little about what people actually wanted. But a RAND Europe study of what people value about the EU finds that their priorities map most squarely onto a Norway-style model for future relations between the UK and the EU.

Oct 11, 2018
Blog

Education Policy 'Game Night' Debuts at RAND

Parents, teachers, principals, and community leaders played RAND's first education policy game. Participants had to work through scenarios affecting a fictional high school, such as how to cut its budget by 4 percent. The game showed researchers how different stakeholders might approach school improvement challenges and what drives their decisions.

Oct 11, 2018
Project

British People Prefer a Soft Brexit, If Any

The political landscape of the UK has changed dramatically in the wake of the Brexit referendum. Since last year, support for a deal based on membership of the European Economic Area has increased from 38 to 43 percent. Even Leave voters are shifting to a softer Brexit.

Oct 11, 2018
News Release

Support for EEA-Style Brexit Has Increased

Support for a Brexit deal based on membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) has increased. EEA membership is now supported by 43 per cent of Britons, up from 38 per cent in 2017, making it the most popular Brexit option.

Oct 11, 2018
Report

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What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A longitudinal study examining the "trade-offs" people would be willing to make in reaching a Brexit deal — technical addendum

A study using stated preference discrete choice experiments to quantify the British people's preferences for their relationship with the European Union after Brexit.

Oct 10, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

What Sort of Brexit Do the British People Want? A Longitudinal Study Examining the 'Trade-Offs' People Would Be Willing to Make in Reaching a Brexit Deal

This study uses a technique known as 'stated preference discrete choice experiments' to understand what sort of Brexit the British people really want and what trade-offs they would be willing to make in negotiations for a deal with the EU.

Oct 10, 2018
Commentary

Just Let Them Compete: Raising the Next Generation of Wargamers

Wargames are games that simulate aspects of warfare at varying levels, aimed at analyzing human decisionmaking. To develop the next generation of avid wargamers, the first step is both radical and simple: Let them compete.

Oct 9, 2018
Report

What Shapes a Nation's Will to Fight?

When considering threats from Russia and North Korea, it is natural to focus on military capabilities. But incorporating will to fight into the analysis of actual or potential conflicts will enhance strategic planning. A model that can be tailored and applied to various conflict scenarios can help U.S. leaders better understand and influence will to fight.

Sep 20, 2018
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Assessing Will to Fight at the Military Unit Level

Will to fight is vital to understanding war, but it is often ignored or misunderstood. A model of unit will to fight that can be applied to ground combat units of any scale can help U.S. military leaders better assess partner and adversary forces and incorporate will to fight in their planning.

Sep 20, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Strict Duality and Overlapping Productivity Distributions Between Formal and Informal Firms

This paper deepens the understanding of informality by investigating important heterogeneity in the overlap of productivity distributions across industries.

Sep 19, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

The Impact of Labor Market Regulation on Employment in Low-Income Countries: A Meta-Analysis

We conclude that the evidence for LICs (and recent LICs) points to a negative effect of regulations on formal employment, and a compensating positive effect on informal employment.

Sep 19, 2018

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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