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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Tool

New Tool Can Help Health Officials Plan for COVID-19 Patient Surge

Apr 3, 2020

Hospitals are searching for ways to ramp up their surge capacity to provide critical care for the sickest COVID-19 patients. A new, user-friendly calculator enables decisionmakers at all levels to estimate current critical care capacity and rapidly explore strategies for increasing it.
Tool

New Tool Can Assess the Effects of COVID-19 Interventions

May 4, 2020

State and local leaders have taken unprecedented measures to slow the spread of COVID-19 and prevent health care systems from being overwhelmed. As states plan the way to recovery, a new tool can help them estimate both the public health and economic consequences of imposing or lifting restrictions.

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Journal Article

Development of a Quality-Controlled Chlorine Gas Concentration Data Base for the Jack Rabbit II Field Experiments

This paper describes the network of chlorine point sensors used during JR II, corrections to the measurements taken by MiniRAE sensors, and analyses using the concentrations measured along the concentric arcs 0.2–11 km away from the source.

Jan 26, 2021
Journal Article

Injury Scoring: Then, Now, and Into the 21st Century

In this essay we review the recent history of injury outcome prediction and suggest how the future may play out.

Jan 21, 2021
Journal Article

Impact of the Choice of Risk Model for Identifying Low-risk Patients Using the 2014 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Perioperative Guidelines

The aim of this study is to determine how often three risk-prediction tools agree on the classification of patients as low risk (less than 1%) of major adverse cardiac event.

Jan 20, 2021
Journal Article

Comparison of Two Prognostic Models in Trauma Outcome

This study compared the anatomical injury components of the Trauma Audit and Research Network model with the Trauma Mortality Prediction Model.

Jan 15, 2021
Report

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Special and Incentive Pays for Career Enlisted Aviators

The authors develop a capability to calculate the efficient amount of special and incentive pays for Air Force career enlisted aviators (CEAs). They also estimate the trade-offs between retaining CEAs and increasing accessions for a given force size.

Jan 7, 2021
Journal Article

Nature and Predictors of Response Changes in Modified-Delphi Panels

This article describes the extent and direction of response changes between modified-Delphi rounds and identifies factors that affect participants' response changes.

Jan 7, 2021
Report

Distributed Kill Chains: Drawing Insights for Mosaic Warfare from the Immune System and from the Navy

In Mosaic warfare, individual warfighting platforms are assembled like ceramic tiles to make a larger "mosaic," or force package. The authors apply lessons from the human immune system and a U.S. Navy project to mosaic warfare.

Jan 5, 2021
Report

Findings on Mosaic Warfare from a Colonel Blotto Game

The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency is investigating a concept of war known as Mosaic warfare, after the analogy of creating a complex image from many small pieces. The authors study Mosaic warfare through the use of a Colonel Blotto game.

Jan 5, 2021
Report

Modeling Rapidly Composable, Heterogeneous, and Fractionated Forces: Findings on Mosaic Warfare from an Agent-Based Model

Mosaic warfare is named for the idea of creating a complex image from small pieces. This report studies Mosaic warfare and explores complexity of platforms, complexity of targets, and relative density of platforms and targets.

Jan 5, 2021
Tool

Quantifying the Bias Due to Observed Individual Confounders in Causal Treatment Effect Estimates: A Tutorial for the Selection Bias Decomposition (SBdecomp) Package

In this tool, the authors explain the methodology behind the primary function of the selection bias decomposition (SBdecomp) package; describe its features, syntax and how to implement the function; and illustrate its use with an example.

Dec 29, 2020
Report

An Experiment in Tactical Wargaming with Platforms Enabled by Artificial Intelligence

RAND researchers explored the capabilities and limitations of future artificial intelligence and machine learning weapon systems in two wargame experiments that brought together operators and engineers.

Dec 29, 2020
Journal Article

Exploring the Application of Machine Learning for Downscaling Climate Projections

In this proof-of-concept study, datasets derived from both observations and climate models were used together to train and test statistical methods to downscale.

Dec 22, 2020
Journal Article

Approaches to Analyzing the Vulnerability of Community Water Systems to Groundwater Contamination in Los Angeles County

This paper details the objectives, process and lessons learned from a workshop-based research project that examined the spatial extent of groundwater contamination in Los Angeles County's groundwater basins.

Dec 22, 2020
Blog

The Most Popular RAND Research of 2020

Here are the RAND research projects that resonated most in 2020, a year unlike any in living memory. Topics include remote learning, election disinformation, income inequality, and more.

Dec 21, 2020
Research Brief

The economic benefits of equitable global access to COVID-19 vaccines

Researchers used a global macroeconomic model to examine the economic effects of vaccine nationalism. This brief highlights the cost to 30 high-income countries if low and middle-income countries miss out on initial access to COVID-19 vaccines.

Dec 17, 2020
Journal Article

Update of Markov Model on the Cost-effectiveness of Nonpharmacologic Interventions for Chronic Low Back Pain Compared to Usual Care

Markov modeling facilitates comparisons across interventions for lower back pain not directly compared in trials.

Dec 16, 2020
Journal Article

Valid Inference in Single-Firm, Single-Event Studies

This paper concerns single-firm event studies, which are especially important in the context of securities litigation. Event studies can be used to address directly the materiality and loss causation elements.

Dec 11, 2020
Report

When Hurricanes Happen During Pandemics

Hurricanes can change patterns of mobility and expand the spread of COVID-19, for example, to communal shelters. On the other hand, fear of the virus could cause people who might otherwise evacuate to shelter in place, resulting in more deaths from a hurricane. How can policymakers prepare for this threat?

Dec 9, 2020
Tool

Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial on the TWANG Shiny Application for Three or More Treatment Groups

This tutorial describes how to use a menu-driven Shiny application based on the Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups (TWANG) R package.

Nov 24, 2020
Journal Article

Use of Virtual Breastfeeding Support Among Underserved, Rural Mothers

To assess predictors of utilization and telelactation visit characteristics, we merged and analyzed data from two sources: visit-level data supplied by the telelactation vendor and longitudinal surveys of women in the intervention group at four timepoints.

Nov 13, 2020

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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