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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report
Machine Learning in Public Policy
Machine learning (ML) can have a significant impact on public policy by modeling complex relationships and augmenting human decisionmaking. But overconfidence in results and incorrectly interpreted algorithms can lead to peril. With interpretability, ML can achieve its promise of more-equitable policy decisions.
Nov 15, 2022
Essay
What Would It Take to Close America's Black-White Wealth Gap?
White Americans hold ten times more total wealth than Black Americans, a disparity that has worsened in recent decades. RAND researchers modeled wealth across millions of households and tested several funding scenarios to see which could most effectively close the gap.
May 9, 2023

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Journal Article
Thinking Without Knowing: Psychological and Behavioral Consequences of Unjustified Confidence Regarding Blackjack Strategy
In two studies, we explored potential psychological and behavioral consequences of unjustified confidence, including outcome expectations, anxiety, risk taking, and information search and consideration.
May 18, 2023
Journal Article
Projected Long-Term Effects of Colorectal Cancer Screening Disruptions Following the COVID-19 Pandemic
This comparative analysis uses two CISNET colorectal cancer (CRC) microsimulation models to assess the impact of ongoing screening disruptions induced by the COVID-19 pandemic on long-term CRC outcomes.
May 5, 2023
Journal Article
Wargames Can't Tell Us How to Deter a Chinese Attack on Taiwan — But Different Games Might
Wargames that simulate combat between the United States and China near Taiwan can provide useful insight about potential military challenges.
May 5, 2023
Report
The Resilience Assessment Framework: Assessing Commercial Contributions to U.S. Space Force Mission Resilience
This report describes the resilience assessment framework that RAND Project AIR FORCE developed to assess the potential impact of integrating select commercial space services on U.S. Space Force mission performance.
Apr 27, 2023
Journal Article
A Randomized Trial of Letters to Encourage Prescription Monitoring Program Use and Safe Opioid Prescribing
Researchers conducted a randomized trial to assess whether letters to clinicians increased use of the state prescription monitoring programs (PMP) and decreased risky coprescribing of opioids with benzodiazepines or gabapentinoids.
Apr 20, 2023
Report
Network Logistics Games: Design and Implementation
This report details a logistics game design that is flexible enough to accommodate a variety of scenarios, objectives, and modifications.
Apr 19, 2023
Report
Optimizing Portfolio-Level Modernization Investment: An Overview of the Aim Point Investment Model (APIM)
This report introduces the Aim Point Investment Model, which helps decisionmakers allocate portfolio-level resources based on existing Army data sources, subject to constraints on the U.S. Army's ability to employ those resources productively.
Mar 27, 2023
Report
What Taiwan's Dominance in Semiconductor Production Means for the U.S.
Semiconductors have become an integral part of nearly every industry. Production of the highest-end semiconductors exists almost entirely in Taiwan. If China were to unify with Taiwan, there are no good short-term options for responding to the disruption that would cause to the global semiconductor supply chain.
Mar 13, 2023
Journal Article
A New Ethical Principle for Analysts Who Use Models
Analysts have long embraced the ethic of revealing assumptions that underlie their conclusions. Analysts should preemptively explain how their conclusions vary with changes of important assumptions reflecting uncertainties and disagreements.
Mar 3, 2023
Report
The relationship between research spending and research performance: A cross-country and in-depth study
This study investigates the relationship between spending and research performance through an econometric analysis and also investigates potential nonlinearities in the relationship between spending and performance through a series of case studies.
Feb 22, 2023
Journal Article
Broad and Selectively Deep: An MRMPM Paradigm for Supporting Analysis
To aid policy analysis and decision making, projects should use models and simulations of varied resolution and perspective. This can improve analysis, improve communication, and provide a broad view, necessary detail, and alternative views.
Feb 21, 2023
Journal Article
Optimal Non-Pharmaceutical Pandemic Response Strategies Depend Critically on Time Horizons and Costs
This paper performs a large-scale optimization exercise to find optimal non-pharmaceutical pandemic response strategies.
Feb 14, 2023
Blog
The War in Ukraine, Software Supply Chain Risk, 'Hacking Equity': RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on lessons about defense strategy from the war in Ukraine, U.S.-France cooperation in the Indo-Pacific, software supply chain risk, and more.
Feb 3, 2023
Report
A Cost Estimating Framework for U.S. Marine Corps Joint Cyber Weapons
To help improve leadership decisionmaking related to the costs of offensive cyber operations acquisition, the authors developed a life-cycle cost-estimating framework for the U.S. Marine Corps and conducted exploratory modeling and simulation.
Feb 2, 2023
Report
First Mover Typology for the Space Domain: Building a Foundation for Future Analysis
The authors offer a categorization and nuanced views of first moves in military strategy as a basis for understanding and further analysis of first mover advantage in the space domain.
Jan 25, 2023
Tool
Chesapeake Bay Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST)
The Model Inventory and Selection Tool (MIST) is an interactive, searchable database of empirical, statistical, and conceptual models relevant to water- and climate-related planning and decisionmaking in the Chesapeake Bay watershed and beyond.
Jan 19, 2023
Report
Common Authorized Stockage Lists for the U.S. Army's Brigade Combat Teams
Mathematical optimization of a common, periodically updated authorized stockage list for each of the U.S. Army's three types of ground brigade combat teams provides improved performance in support of equipment readiness and reduced transition costs.
Jan 19, 2023
Essay
Hackathon Focuses on Making Policing More Equitable
Hackathons bring new ideas and perspectives to hard policy problems and introduce college students to the field of policy analysis. The latest hackathon, hosted by Pardee RAND and RAND NextGen, explored ways to make the criminal justice system more equitable and more effective.
Jan 9, 2023
Report
Accounting for Black-White Wealth Differences
Wealth accumulation is not solely determined by a person's choices and ability. Many factors affect individual wealth, including parental income, credit, and systemic discrimination. These factors have a cumulative effect and can lead to persistent disparities over generations.
Dec 7, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Jessica Randazzo

Statistical Analyst

Jessica Randazzo (she/her) is a statistical analyst at the RAND Corporation. She conducts statistical analyses to address a variety of research questions in the areas of health policy, social determinants of health, synthetic data, social justice, and military health. Jessica has extensive…
Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar

Senior Statistician

Madhumita (Bonnie) Ghosh-Dastidar is head of the Statistics Group and a senior statistician at the RAND Corporation. Her areas of policy are health and social and economic well-being and her work includes evaluations of neighborhood-level interventions, randomized trails to assess the effect of…

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