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Modeling and Simulation

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Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report

Graph Theoretic Algorithms for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Program

Nov 8, 2021

The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent is a complete replacement for an aging intercontinental ballistic missile system that is currently under development. What are quantitative methods that can be used to make the unified certification process for nuclear systems more rigorous and efficient?
Report

New Model Helps Predict Cyber Threats and Improve Resilience

May 11, 2021

Today's evolving cyber threats require a tailored and targeted approach to cybersecurity. Current defenses focus on managing threats after a network has been breached. RAND's Scalable Warning and Resilience Model (SWARM) can help defenders proactively protect their systems through early warning of cyber incidents before they occur.

Explore Modeling and Simulation

Report

An Exploratory Examination of Agent-Based Modeling for the Study of Social Movements

The authors of this report explore the use of agent-based modeling as a method for studying the effects of information and communications technologies on the formation, maintenance, and dissolution of social movements over time.

Aug 16, 2022
Journal Article

Cyber Deterrence with Imperfect Attribution and Unverifiable Signaling

Examines a game of deterrence in which the defender can signal its retaliatory capability but can only imperfectly attribute an attack. We show that there are equilibria in which the defender sends noisy signals to increase its expected payoff.

Jul 25, 2022
Journal Article

Methodological Considerations for Estimating Policy Effects in the Context of Co-Occurring Policies

Researchers conducted simulations to assess how concurrently implemented policies affected the evaluation of hypothetical state-level policies.

Jul 15, 2022
Report

Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches

This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces.

Jul 13, 2022
Tool

Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial for the R TWANG Package

This tutorial describes the use of the TWANG package in R to estimate propensity score weights when there are two treatment groups, and how to use TWANG to estimate nonresponse weights.

Jul 7, 2022
Tool

Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups: A Tutorial on the TWANG Shiny App for Two Treatments

This tutorial describes how to use a menu-driven Shiny application based on the Toolkit for Weighting and Analysis of Nonequivalent Groups (TWANG) R package.

Jul 7, 2022
News Release

RAND and Poynter Develop Policy-Focused Educational Opportunities for Journalists

The RAND Corporation, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution, is partnering with the Poynter Institute, a global nonprofit dedicated to journalistic excellence, to develop education and training for journalists on today's most pressing policy issues and the process of research and analysis.

Jul 6, 2022
Content

RAND x Poynter: Custom Policy Education for Journalists

RAND is partnering with the Poynter Institute to create innovative educational opportunities for journalists. Programming will focus on breaking down the policy research process and how policy issues affect the general public.

Jul 6, 2022
Journal Article

Volunteer Recovery Support for Adolescents: Using Propensity Score Based Methods to Understand Dosage Effects Within a Randomized Controlled Trial

The study used statistical methods designed to approximate RCTs when comparing more than two nonequivalent groups that include an assessment of the potential impact of omitted variables in order to address potential dosage effects for a commonly used evidence based substance use treatment program for adolescents.

Jun 24, 2022
Journal Article

Higher Moments for Optimal Balance Weighting in Causal Estimation

We explore the potential benefit of using higher-order moments in the balancing conditions for covariate-balancing propensity scores and entropy balance.

Jun 24, 2022
Journal Article

A Tutorial Comparing Different Covariate Balancing Methods with an Application Evaluating the Causal Effects of Substance Use Treatment Programs for Adolescents

A state-of-the-art tutorial on how best to implement propensity score weighting analyses.

Jun 24, 2022
Report

Expanding Insurance Coverage to Undocumented Immigrants in Connecticut

Removing Connecticut's immigration status requirements for Medicaid and individual market subsidy eligibility would increase health care coverage among certain immigrant populations. At the same time, it would not substantially affect health insurance costs for other Connecticut residents.

Jun 7, 2022
Report

Supporting a Royal Australian Navy Modelling and Simulation Strategy: A Strategy-to-Task Framework

The authors provide an evidence base for an expanded Modelling and Simulation Strategy for the Royal Australian Navy so that it can better position itself to operate in a high-end warfighting environment.

May 18, 2022
Essay

Tracking Migration Amid War and Disease

Researchers from RAND and RAND Europe have been working on a way to better track migrant numbers, country by country and state by state, in almost real time. They do it by tapping into one of the largest information-gathering operations on the planet, Facebook.

Apr 28, 2022
Journal Article

Optimal Allocation of Seats in the Presence of Peer Effects: Evidence from a Job Training Program

We model optimal treatment assignment in programs with a limited number of seats and study how the presence of peer effects impact the optimal allocation rule and us data from an RCT to show there are peer effects in the job training context.

Mar 29, 2022
Commentary

Is Putin Irrational? What Nuclear Strategic Theory Says About Deterrence of Potentially Irrational Opponents

Increasingly isolated and desperate, Putin might try to suddenly escalate the Ukraine conflict rather than back down in the face of international opposition. The United States and its allies must account for the possibility that even in the face of credible deterrent threats Putin might double down and lash out.

Mar 8, 2022
Commentary

Developing a Winning Safety Strategy for Automated Vehicles

When policy problems involve many different groups with diverging interests along with significant uncertainty about the future, games can be a valuable way to explore the potential consequences of important policy decisions. What could gaming bring to the area of AV safety?

Feb 18, 2022
Journal Article

Artificial Intelligence for Wargaming and Modeling

We discuss how AI can be used in modeling, simulation, wargaming, and combinations thereof, focusing largely on the strategic political-military level.

Feb 15, 2022
Journal Article

Assessing Meaningful Community Engagement: A Conceptual Model to Advance Health Equity Through Transformed Systems for Health

This commentary will describe how the Organizing Committee arrived at the conceptual model, the critical content that the model contains and expresses, and how the model can be used to assess meaningful community engagement.

Feb 15, 2022
Report

Suggestions for Estimating the Effects of State Gun Policies: Commentary on Four Methodological Problems in the Current Literature

In this report, the authors discuss four common methodological problems that they observed in the literature evaluating gun policies and offer suggestions for how future research on gun policies could be improved.

Feb 15, 2022

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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