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Modeling and Simulation

Researchers frequently require a quantitative understanding of the likely consequences of different actions before they can advise decisionmakers and design effective policies. RAND develops and uses statistical, econometric, and other exploratory models and simulations to analyze the potential outcomes of different policies in a range of areas such as transportation usage, health care, patient safety, and military campaigns.

Report

Report

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Apr 16, 2018
Commentary

Congestion Tolls Work in London and Stockholm—Why Not Seattle?

Seattle is considering following in the footsteps of cities like London, Stockholm, Singapore and Milan to introduce a charge for driving on the roads. What can Seattle and its inhabitants learn from other cities that have implemented road user charging?

Apr 12, 2018
Dissertation

Dissertation

Using the National Training Center Instrumentation System to Aid Simulation-Based Acquisition

This dissertation uses the National Training Center instrumentation system to aid simulation-based acquisition.

Mar 22, 2018
Report

Report

Quantifying travellers' willingness to pay for the Harbour Tunnel in Copenhagen: A stated choice study

This study uses a stated choice experiment to quantify travellers' willingness to pay for a tolled tunnel in Copenhagen. Discrete choice models are used to quantify travellers' value of travel time savings.

Mar 20, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

How Can We Model Travel Frequency? A Critical Review of Current Practice

The paper should assist the transport modellers and policy makers in choosing appropriate trip frequency modelling tools which best suit their problem.

Mar 20, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks

Data on Health and Retirement study respondents' expected life span and actual mortality shows that some demographic groups tend to be overly pessimistic about how long they'll live, which could lead to under-saving for retirement.

Mar 13, 2018
Report

Report

Participatory Modeling of Climate Change Impacts on Public Health in Long Beach, California: Discussion from a Workshop Hosted by the RAND Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition

Participatory modeling, using causal loop diagramming, was employed to identify public health issues; examine connections between climate change and public health; and understand feedback loops among climate change impacts and public health.

Mar 7, 2018
Brochure

Spotlight on 2017

RAND Europe's annual review, Spotlight on 2017, features some of the objective research and analysis we do to help policy and decision makers keep pace with an ever-changing world.

Jan 29, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Maybe There Is No Bias in the Selection of Disputes for Litigation

This article attempts to contribute to the empirical and theoretical literature on litigation, settlement, and selection by analyzing New York litigation "closing statements".

Jan 26, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Multilevel Selection in Litigation Data: A Bounds Approach

Proposes a bounds approach to address the problem of selection with litigation data.

Jan 25, 2018
Report

Report

Application of Logic Models to Facilitate DoD Laboratory Technology Transfer

This report describes a method that can help the Department of Defense monitor and track technology transfer from laboratories to customers and assess the success of efforts that may lead to capability improvements.

Jan 19, 2018
Report

Report

Estimating the Global Cost of Cyber Risk: Methodology and Examples

This report shares a transparent and adaptable methodology for estimating present and future global costs of cyber risk. The report has a companion Excel-based modeling and simulation platform that allows users to alter assumptions.

Jan 15, 2018
Tool

Estimating the Global Cost of Cyber Risk Calculator

This Excel-based modeling and simulation tool estimates present and future global costs of cyber attacks and incidents. Users can also alter assumptions to investigate a wide variety of research questions.

Jan 15, 2018
Report

Report

Gaming Space: A Game-Theoretic Methodology for Assessing the Deterrent Value of Space Control Options

This report introduces and explains a game-theoretic methodology to help decisionmakers assess the potential effects of alternative approaches to space control.

Jan 5, 2018
Tool

Tool

Defensive Space Analysis Tool (DSPAT): Version 2.0

This manual explains how to use the Defensive Space Analysis Tool (DSPAT), which was developed to compare alternative approaches to space control in terms of their mission effectiveness, feasibility, escalation risk, and political cost.

Jan 5, 2018
Journal Article

The Not-So-Marginal Value of Weather Warning Systems

This paper uses conditional variation in the initial broadcast dates of NOAA Weather Radio All Hazards (NWR) transmitters to produce cross-sectional and fixed effects estimates of the causal impact of expanding the NWR transmitter network.

Jan 4, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Optimizing Variance-Bias Trade-Off in the TWANG Package for Estimation of Propensity Scores

This discussion highlights potentially meaningful ways to optimize propensity score machine learning methods to allow for minimal bias and less variability.

Dec 28, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Collaborative Targeted Learning Using Regression Shrinkage

While the underlying theory of collaborative targeted minimum loss-based estimation is quite general, current implementations involve greedy stepwise selection of covariates into the exposure model.

Dec 15, 2017
News Release

News Release

Reforms to U.S. Child Welfare System Could Reduce Costs and Improve Outcomes

Expanding prevention and treatment services in the U.S. child welfare system could improve the lives of children and reduce total lifetime expenses of such services by 3 to 7 percent.

Dec 11, 2017
Research Brief

Improving Children's Lives: Balancing Investments in Prevention and Treatment in the Child Welfare System

Increasing prevention and treatment improves children's experience and long-term outcomes while paying for itself by reducing lifetime child welfare system costs.

Dec 11, 2017

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RAND Topic:
Modeling and Simulation

Topic Synonyms:
Mathematical Modeling;
Modelling

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