The ability of the Theory of Planned Behavior, Social Learning Theory, Social Attachment Theory, and Problem Behavior Theory to predict smoking at Grade 10 was tested against an integrated model incorporating predictors from all the theories. The integrated model also tested whether constructs from each theory contribute distinct variance to the prediction of smoking. Predictors measured at Grade 7 (in 1985) were used to model smoking 3 years later (in 1988) among 4186 youth, using logistic regression. Constructs emphasized by each theory were important, independent predictors of later smoking. The integrated model was superior to all of the theory-based models. A few predictors varied for current vs. frequent smoking outcomes. Results emphasize the need for a multifaceted approach to understanding and preventing adolescent smoking.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation External publication series. Many RAND studies are published in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in commercial books, or as documents published by other organizations.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.