News Release
Advancing Medical Technology Likely to Greatly Inflate Future Medicare Costs
Sep 25, 2005
Technological Advances in Cancer and Future Spending by the Elderly
Published in: Health Affairs - Web Exclusive, Sep. 26, 2005, p. W5-R53-W5-R66
Posted on RAND.org on December 31, 2004
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Access further information on this document at content.healthaffairs.orgThis article was published outside of RAND. The full text of the article can be found at the link above.
This paper forecasts the consequences of scientific progress in cancer for total Medicare spending between 2005 and 2030. Because technological advance is uncertain, widely varying scenarios are modeled. A baseline scenario assumes that year 2000 technology stays frozen. A second scenario incorporates recent cancer treatment advances and their attendant discomfort. Optimistic scenarios analyzed include the discovery of an inexpensive cure, a vaccine that prevents cancer, and vastly improved screening techniques. Applying the Future Elderly Model, the authors find that no scenario holds major promise for guaranteeing the future financial health of Medicare.
Access further information on this document at content.healthaffairs.org
This article was published outside of RAND. The full text of the article can be found at the link above.
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