The MISCAN-Fadia Continuous Tumor Growth Model for Breast Cancer

Published in: Journal of the National Cancer Institute Monographs, v. 36, Chapter 9, 2006, p. 56-65

Posted on RAND.org on January 01, 2006

by Sita Y G L Tan, Gerritt J van Oortmarssen, Harry J. de Koning, Rob Boer, John Dik F Habbema

The MISCAN-Fadia model was used to analyze the impact of screening and adjuvant treatment on U.S. breast cancer mortality between 1975 and 2000. MISCAN-Fadia uses the concept of fatal diameter to model survival and screening benefit and is based on continuous tumor growth. It consists of four major components: population, natural history, screening, and treatment. Population parameters were quantified using U.S. population data. Most natural history and screening parameters were fitted to the Swedish Two County screening trial data; some were based on Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data. Adjuvant treatment parameters were quantified using data from the Early Breast Cancer Trialists' Collaborative Group's meta-analysis. The simulated trend in incidence matches the observed trend reasonably well; the simulated mortality is equal to the observed in 1975 but becomes increasingly too high in 2000. The authors estimate that screening leads to a 15% and adjuvant treatment to a 21% mortality reduction in the year 2000.

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