The Modeling of Motorcycle Ownership and Commuter Usage
A UK Study
Published in: Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, no. 2031, 2007, p. [1-13]
Posted on rand.org 2007
This paper presents work, undertaken for the UK Department for Transport, to help determine how policy could affect motorcycle usage. There are two important choices that determine potential motorcycle use: the decision to own a motorcycle, and contingent upon that, the decision to use a motorcycle for a particular trip. This research has addressed both of these, and this paper describes the development of models to represent these decision processes. The motorcycle ownership model predicts the number of motorcycles a person owns and the engine sizes of these motorcycles, depending on the characteristics of the person and the average purchase cost. The structure of the ownership model is a disaggregate nested logit model, with structural parameters to measure the sensitivity of choice of engine size relative to motorcycle ownership. Existing travel surveys contained insufficient information to model the mode-choice decisions of motorcycle owners. Therefore, new surveys were designed incorporating stated preference discrete choice experiments. This also allowed us to collect data to examine how motorcycle usage may change as a result of policy and the impact of other important influences, such as weather. The data was used to develop nested logit models of mode-choice. These models also give some insight as to how the ability to inter-lane filter influences mode choice. This is the first UK study that models both motorcycle ownership and mode choice. It provides useful insights for policy makers and illustrates the potential for modelling motorcycles within the same framework as other transport modes.