Do We Need Better Predictions to Adapt to a Changing Climate?

Published in: Eos, v. 90, no. 13, Mar. 31, 2009, p. 111-112

Posted on RAND.org on March 31, 2009

by Suraje Dessai, Mike Hulme, Robert J. Lempert, Roger A. Pielke

Read More

Access further information on this document at www.agu.org

This article was published outside of RAND. The full text of the article can be found at the link above.

Many scientists have called for a substantial new investment in climate modeling to increase the accuracy, precision, and reliability of climate predictions. Such investments are often justified by asserting that failure to improve predictions will prevent society from adapting successfully to changing climate. This Forum questions these claims, suggests limits to predictability, and argues that society can (and indeed must) make effective adaptation decisions in the absence of accurate and precise climate predictions.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation external publication series. Many RAND studies are published in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in commercial books, or as documents published by other organizations.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.