A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West

An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis

Published in: Center for the Study of Democracy, CSD Working Paper, Dec. 2016, 22 p

Posted on RAND.org on January 10, 2017

by Brian Michael Jenkins

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An aggressive Russia, a divided and unsettled Europe, and a distracted and unpredictable United States have created an unprecedented and perilous confluence of events that could undermine the European security architecture and the liberal-democratic order. Ultimately, it is conceivable that the Western allies and Russia could achieve through dialogue some kind of constructive modus vivendi whereby Russia becomes a less paranoid power that respects the independence of its former empire. A long shot to begin with, such a rapprochement is less achievable if Europe and the United States appear disorganized and vulnerable.

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