A Trauma Mortality Prediction Model Based on the ICD-10-CM Lexicon


Published in: Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, Volume 86, Issue 5, pages 891-895 (May 2019). doi: 10.1097/TA.0000000000002194

Posted on RAND.org on January 28, 2021

by Turner M. Osler, Laurent G. Glance, Alan Cook, Jeffery S. Buzas, David W. Hosmer

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Outcome prediction models allow risk adjustment required for trauma research and the evaluation of outcomes. The advent of ICD-10-CM has rendered risk adjustment based on ICD-9-CM codes moot, but as yet no risk adjustment model based on ICD-10-CM codes has been described.


The National Trauma Data Bank provided data from 773,388 injured patients who presented to one of 747 trauma centers in 2016 with traumatic injuries ICD-10-CM codes and Injury Severity Score (ISS). We constructed an outcome prediction model using only ICD-10-CM acute injury codes and compared its performance with that of the ISS.


Compared with ISS, the TMPM-ICD-10 discriminated survivors from non-survivors better (ROC TMPM-ICD-10 = 0.861 [0.860-0.872], ROC [reviever operating curve] ISS = 0.830 [0.823-0.836]), was better calibrated (HL [Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic] TMPM-ICD-10 = 49.01, HL ISS = 788.79), and had a lower Akaike information criteria (AIC TMPM-ICD10 = 30579.49; AIC ISS = 31802.18).


Because TMPM-ICD10 provides better discrimination and calibration than the ISS and can be computed without recourse to Abbreviated Injury Scale coding, the TMPM-ICD10 should replace the ISS as the standard measure of overall injury severity for data coded in the ICD-10-CM lexicon.

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