An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

Published in: Simulation and Wargaming (January 2022); book editors Charles Turnitsa, Curtis Blais, Andreas Tolk, pages 91–121. doi: 10.1002/9781119604815.ch4

by Paul K. Davis

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Access further information on this document at Simulation and Wargaming (January 2022); book editors Charles Turnitsa

This article was published outside of RAND. The full text of the article can be found at the link above.

This chapter develops from a presentation in a 2016 workshop on wargaming sponsored by the Deputy Secretary of Defense as part of an initiative to use wargaming to help foster innovation. The presentation was to a working group charged with addressing how wargaming can support the Department of Defense larger analytic process. The chapter describes the model-game-model paradigm—an analysis centric view that is only one way to connect gaming to other analytic processes, but an important one. It draws implications for the building of simulations and using wargaming as part of doing so. The chapter focuses on relating gaming to the conceptual model and a highly simplified computational model. It deals with model building and game design and designing and executing a human wargame and learning from it. The chapter introduces "multiscenario analysis" across different assumptions about the thinking of Red and the myriad uncertainties of military operations.

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