Paul K. Davis

Adjunct Principal Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; B.S. in chemisty, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Paul K. Davis is an adjunct principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, deterrence theory, counterterrorism, advanced methods of analysis, modeling, and gaming, and heterogeneous information fusion. He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, and deterrence and influence theory, as well as an integrative review on social science for counterterrorism. Before joining RAND, Davis was a senior executive in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the National Academy, and the Intelligence Community; he is also a regular reviewer of several professional journals. Davis received his Ph.D. in theoretical chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Research Focus

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Policy Analysis and the Modeling of Complex Problems

Previous Positions

Senior Executive, Office of the Secretary of Defense

Recent Projects

Inflluencing Adversary States
Priorities for Social-Behavioral Modeling
Deterrence and Stability on the Korean Peninsula
Heterogeneous Fusion
Social Science for Counterterrorism (and follow-ons)

Selected Publications

Davis, Paul K., Angela O'Mahony, Christian Curriden, and Jonathan Lamb, Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms, RAND Corporation (RR-A161-1), 2021

Paul K. Davis, Angela O'Mahony, and Jonathan Pfautz (eds.), Social Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems, Wiley & Sons, 2019

Davis, Paul K., Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity, RAND Corporation (RR-482-OSD), 2014

Davis, Paul K., Angela O'Mahony, A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling, RAND Corporation (TR-1220-OSD), 2013

The RAND Corporation, Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, RAND Corporation (MG-849), 2009

Davis, Paul K., Russell D. Shaver, and Justin Beck, Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, RAND Corporation (MG-662-OSD), 2008

Davis, Paul K., Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda, RAND Corporation (MR-1619), 2002

The RAND Corporation, New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough, RAND Corporation (MR-400-RC), 1994

Honors & Awards

Distinguished Civilian Service Medal, Secretary of Defense

Publications

Journal Article
Potential Implications of the Russia–Ukraine War for Northeast Asia
Commentary on potential lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war bearing on deterrence in Northeast Asia, including lessons related to nuclear weapons.
Feb 21, 2023
Journal Article
Broad and Selectively Deep: An MRMPM Paradigm for Supporting Analysis
To aid policy analysis and decision making, projects should use models and simulations of varied resolution and perspective. This can improve analysis, improve communication, and provide a broad view, necessary detail, and alternative views.
Feb 21, 2023
Report
Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches
This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces.
Jul 13, 2022
Journal Article
Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.
Apr 5, 2022
Journal Article
Artificial Intelligence for Wargaming and Modeling
We discuss how AI can be used in modeling, simulation, wargaming, and combinations thereof, focusing largely on the strategic political-military level.
Feb 15, 2022
Journal Article
An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
This paper discusses how wargaming can be used as part of an analysis campaign in a sequence of model-game-model activities, always with the intent to assist analysis.
Jan 20, 2022
Journal Article
A New Ethical Principle for Analysts Who Use Models
Analysts have long embraced the ethic of revealing assumptions that underlie their conclusions. Analysts should preemptively explain how their conclusions vary with changes of important assumptions reflecting uncertainties and disagreements.
2022
Journal Article
Modeling Infectious Behaviors: The Need to Account for Behavioral Adaptation in COVID-19 Models
In this essay we discuss the need for new types of simulation models of COVID-19 that couple transmission dynamics with adaptive behaviors.
Oct 20, 2021
Journal Article
Reforming the Teaching and Conducting of Policy Studies to Deal Better with Complex Systems
The teaching and conduct of policy analysis needs updating to account better for the special challenges of social problems occurring in complex adaptive systems.
Sep 17, 2021
Journal Article
Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021
This article is a commentary on a paper by Lustick and Tetlock (2021), on forecasting, decisionmaking, and the intelligence community.
Apr 2, 2021
Report
Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms
RAND researchers describe an experimental "thinking-Red" approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises to help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. It features alternative models of the adversary.
Feb 16, 2021
Journal Article
Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand
Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.
Feb 11, 2020
Report
Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States
This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.
Oct 24, 2019
Journal Article
An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation: New Data and New Challenges
We review issues of data infrastructure and artificial intelligence for social and behavioral modeling. Among the newer machine learning methods,adversarial training and fuzzy cognitive maps have particular unrealized potential.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Ethical and Privacy Issues in Social-Behavioral Research
We discuss key ethical and privacy issues: meaningful user notice,assuring usable and accurate access control, anonymizing data, validating algorithms to avoid harms, addressing harms, and deterring abuse.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Improving Social-Behavioral Modeling
We identify priority challenges for SB modeling. These involve dealing with complex adaptive systems and deep uncertainty, but also cultural issues such as better relating data-driven and theory-driven research and seeking more coherent models.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Lessons on Decision Aiding for Social-Behavioral Modeling
This chapter draws on lessons from other domains to suggest ways for social-behavioral modeling to be useful in aiding high-level decision-making on both national security and social-policy issues.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Panel Discussion: Moving Social-Behavioral Modeling Forward
This chapter describes panel discussion and debate relating to various multi-scale phenomena in social science, including emergence.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems
This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for diverse contexts. Recent advances have created great opportunities, but so also there are great scientific, technical, and ethical challenges.
Jun 11, 2019
Journal Article
Defense Planning When Major Changes Are Needed
The special efforts needed to make "big things happen" in defense planning.
Oct 23, 2018
Report
Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling
Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.
Apr 16, 2018
Draft
An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation: New Data and New Challenges
Reviews the current state of the art in data infrastructure and artificial intelligence approaches that could be valuable for social and behavioral modeling.
Mar 5, 2018
Draft
Illustrating a Model-Game-Model Paradigm for Using Human Wargames in Analysis
Proposes and illustrates an analysis-centric paradigm (model-game-model or what might be better called model-exercise-model in some cases) for relating human wargaming to modeling and analysis.
Feb 23, 2017
Report
Capabilities for Joint Analysis in the Department of Defense: Rethinking Support for Strategic Analysis
This report stems from a congressional request for an independent report about the U.S. Department of Defense's capabilities for joint analysis and ways to improve them.
Sep 12, 2016
Report
Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
This report provides a risk assessment methodology that integrates risk factors and risk management approaches tailored to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's management, operations, and acquisition structures.
Jun 29, 2016
Journal Article
Deterrence and Stability for the Korean Peninsula
RAND and KIDA have been conducting a collaborative research addressing the issue of deterrence and stability for the Korean Peninsula.
Mar 8, 2016
Draft
Simple Culture-Informed Models of the Adversary
Describes a series of research efforts over three decades to build simple cognitive models of the adversary, some as complex computer programs and some exceptionally simple.
Feb 26, 2016
Report
Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence
Presents research on methods for heterogeneous information fusion -- combining data that are qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, ambiguous, contradictory, and even deceptive, in order to form a realistic assessment of threat in a counterterrorism context.
Feb 1, 2016
Journal Article
Using Causal Models in Heterogeneous Information Fusion to Detect Terrorists
We describe basic research that uses a causal, uncertainty-sensitive computational model rooted in qualitative social science to fuse disparate pieces of threat information.
Dec 14, 2015
Draft
Causal Models and Exploratory Analysis in Heterogeneous Information Fusion for Detecting Potential Terrorists
Describes research fusing heterogeneous information in an effort eventually to detect terrorists, reduce false alarms, and exonerate those falsely identified.
Nov 17, 2015
Report
Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity
Defense analysis can better serve policymakers by exploiting improvements in the state of the art and by rediscovering and supplementing classic principles. These relate to multiple objectives and hedging against uncertainty.
Mar 20, 2014
Draft
Toward Theory for Dissuasion (or Deterrence) by Denial: Using Simple Cognitive Models of the Adversary to Inform Strategy
Derived from a paper presented at the conference, Deterrence by Denial: Theory, Practice, and Empiricism, held at the Munk School of the University of Toronto, October 18-20, 2013.
Jan 15, 2014
Journal Article
Deterrence, Influence, Cyber Attack, and Cyberwar
This study uses a simple model to speculate about whether deterrence can be a significant part of dealing with special features of the cyber attack challenge, and distinguishing different classes and contexts of cyber threats.
2014
Research Brief
Using Behavioral Indicators to Detect Potential Violent Acts
Provides an overview of research on how observable behavioral indicators might be used to detect potential violent attacks, such as by suicide terrorists or those laying improvised explosive devices.
Aug 23, 2013
Report
Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts: A Review of the Science Base
Reviews the scientific literature relating to observable behavioral indicators that might, along with other information, help detect potential violent attacks, such as those by suicide terrorists or the laying of improvised explosive devices.
Jun 11, 2013
Report
A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling
Details a prototype computational model that seeks to explain, as a function of contributing factors, the extent of public support for insurgency and its use of terrorism. The model is believed to be reusable and suitable for composition.
May 1, 2013
Journal Article
Advancing Clinical Decision Support Using Lessons from Outside of Healthcare: An Interdisciplinary Systematic Review
National efforts to advance the health information agenda could profit from experience with computerized decision support in defense and business.
Aug 1, 2012
Report
Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security
This review of two decades of RAND work on uncertainty analysis for national security applications shows the wide range of uncertainties that arise, the variety of analytic techniques needed, and progress made in dealing with deep uncertainty.
Jul 31, 2012
Report
Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism
Drawing on social science and particularly social movement theory, presents and tests empirically a conceptual model of public support for insurgency and terrorism and discusses how it can inform counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategy.
Jul 31, 2012
Draft
Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects
Discusses approaches, strategies, and an application to understanding and influencing public support of insurgency and terrorism.
Mar 9, 2012
Journal Article
Toward an Analytic Basis for Influence Strategy in Counterterrorism
This chapter discusses terrorism-related deterrence and influence analytically.
2012
Draft
Structuring Analysis to Support Future Decisions about Nuclear Forces and Postures
Explores how to evaluate future nuclear forces and postures and makes recommendations.
Dec 22, 2011
Report
Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction
Reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction, with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level.
Oct 10, 2011
Journal Article
The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning
Technology diffusion, geostrategic changes, and a proliferation of well-armed adversaries are forcing Washington to deal with a mix of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism and at the same time provide against traditional challenges.
Oct 1, 2011
Report
Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy
U.S. defense planning is beset with technology-related problems for force projection, obsolescence of forces and concepts of operations, and the need for a new Asian-Pacific strategy. Finding the way ahead amidst fiscal constraints is challenging.
Mar 22, 2011
Report
Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges
Discusses alternative ways to think about modeling and simulation.
Feb 4, 2011
Report
Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis
Documents the first phase of a study aimed at finding ways to ensure that warfighter needs are adequately represented as the Air Force manages its programs and budget.
Jul 23, 2010
Report
Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda
Simple, conceptual models can be used to help guide thinking about how to deter or to otherwise influence potential, actual, or disengaging terrorists and the many people who support their organizations directly or indirectly.
Jul 16, 2010
Report
Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-Entry
Focusing on three missions -- illegal drug control, counterterrorism, and illegal migration -- this report recommends ways to measure performance of U.S. border-security efforts in terms of interdiction, deterrence, and exploiting networked intelligence.
Jun 23, 2010
Report
Military Transformation? Which Transformation, and What Lies Ahead?
Discusses military transformation across the eight years of the George W. Bush administration, particularly those in which Donald Rumsfeld was secretary of defense.
Jun 4, 2010
Report
RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual
An evolved version of RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) will assist high-level decisionmakers in thinking about balance, constructing good multifaceted options for consideration, and making subsequent choices.
Oct 20, 2009
Report
Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together
Why does terrorism arise and decline? Why do people become terrorists or disengage? How do terrorists generate, maintain, or lose public support? How do terrorists make decisions? These are the questions that the authors address.
May 13, 2009
Report
Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models
Describes ways to specify important static content of social-science models for counterterrorism without dependence on a particular computer language or environment.
2009
Research Brief
Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty
This research brief describes an approach that can be used in today's highly fluid global security environment to compare the likely effectiveness, risks, and costs of alternative national defense strategies.
Sep 17, 2008
Report
Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations
A portfolio-analysis approach that deals explicitly with both uncertainty and differences of strategic perspective allows an integrated comparison of alternative strategies' effectiveness, risks, and resource implications.
Sep 4, 2008
Report
Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis
In a fluid global security environment such as ours, assessing the costs, risks, and likely consequences of alternative national defense strategies is as hard as it is essential.
Sep 4, 2008
Report
Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening
A methodology and prototype tool, the Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), that identifies investment options for defense capability areas, then uses a screening technique to identify those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework.
Mar 24, 2008
Research Brief
Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense
This research brief summarizes a monograph presenting a framework, methods, and tools to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military services. The monograph deals with choice and risk.
Jan 28, 2008
Report
Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options
An analytical framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews is described, along with two new tools developed to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military Services.
Jan 23, 2008
Report
Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking
A framework for supporting high-level decisionmaking, one that deals explicitly with uncertainty to produce flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies, and does so in support of both ''rational-analytic'' and ''intuitive'' decisionmakers.
Apr 18, 2007
Report
Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments
Man-machine exploration of the ''possibility space'' in strategic planning using massive scenario.
Apr 16, 2007
Report
Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation
Reviews analysis and analysis practices for defense planning and draws important implications for models and simulations.
Apr 9, 2007
Report
A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User’s Manual
A tool to facilitate high-level discussion of program tradeoffs and adjustments in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA).
Oct 18, 2005
Report
Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
An overview of higher-level decisionmaking and modern methods to improve decision support.
Sep 14, 2005
Draft
Introduction to Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis
Mar 22, 2005
Report
Challenges in Virtual Collaboration: Videoconferencing, Audioconferencing, and Computer-Mediated Communications
Virtual, or mediated, communication: effects of communication media and a strategy for improving their use.
Dec 16, 2004
Report
Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations
Making future DoD models and simulations more composable
May 2, 2004
Research Brief
Modern Decision Support Science Suggests New Methods and Tools to Support Military Decisionmaking
Decision science seeks to understand how people make decisions and how those decisions can be improved. Modern developments in decision science could assist the Air Force plan its research programs for improving decision support.
2004
Report
New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Addresses the new challenges for defense policy in a world transformed by the end of the Cold War and then the war on terrorism, and sketches new analytic techniques for framing particular defense issues.
2003
Report
Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis
Using multiresolution, multiperspective modeling and exploratory analysis to validate models for specific contexts
2003
Report
Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling
Illuminates why it can be important to improve the quality of metamodels by using even modest phenomenological knowledge to help structure them.
2003
Research Brief
Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models
RAND Project AIR FORCE has reported a set of concepts that will improve analysts' ability to deal with uncertain models and data.
2003
Report
Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals
Takes a first cut at identifying metrics for evaluating, advancing, and monitoring progress toward attaining the six operational goals highlighted in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review.
2003
Journal Article
Military Applications of Simulation: A Selected Review
This chapter provides a selective overview of simulation activities taking place within the U.S. defense community.
2003
Report
Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases
A collection of three papers related to cognitive modeling of adversaries
2003
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003
Examines the debate regarding the safety and efficacy of ephedra; also covers contrasting lessons from different educational interventions, a "systems approach" to counterterrorism, domestic abuse, public health, and genetic manipulation.
2003
Report
Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda
The U.S. counterterrorism strategy should include political warfare, placing at risk things the terrorists hold dear, a credible threat of force against states or groups that support acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and maintaining cooperation with other nations engaged in the war on terror.
Apr 29, 2002
Report
Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation
Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation
Apr 29, 2002
Report
Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf
This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an early halt or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns.
2002
Report
Integrating Transformation Programs
Integrating Transformation Programs
2002
Report
Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community
This monograph suggests principles for sharpening discussions of Effects-based operations (EBO), increasing the rigor of those discussions, and building the key ideas of EBO into analysis for defense planning, experimentation, and operations planning.
2001
Report
Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling
... originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation.
2001
Report
Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts
This monograph is a "think piece" about rapidly deployable future ground forces that would be used in time-urgent joint-task-force missions.
2000
Report
EXHALT: Interdiction Model for Exploring Halt Capabilities in a Large Scenario Space
Documents a relatively simple personal-computer model of interdiction in "the early halt problem" — the military problem of halting an invading army quickly. The authors' emphasis is on broad-ranging exploratory analysis at the aggregate level.
2000
Report
Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precision Fires: A Stochastic Multiresolution Model (PEM) Calibrated to High-Resolution Simulation
This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fires that were employed against an invader marching through mixed terrain.
2000
Report
Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force"
Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force"
1999
Report
Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System
Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System
1998
Report
Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM)
Describes the motivation for multiresolution modeling (MRM) within a single model or a family of models.
1998
Report
Transforming the Force: Suggestions for DoD Strategy
The Department of Defense is embarking on an effort to transform U.S. forces for the years and decades ahead.
1998
Report
Exploratory Analysis of ''The Halt Problem": A Briefing on Methods and Initial Insights
Describes a prototype high-level
1997
Report
Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making
Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making
1997
Report
Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)
This briefing develops and examines a wide range of strategic options for the defense program and posture.
1997
Report
A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning
A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning
1996
Report
Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework
Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework
1996
Report
Aggregation, Disaggregation, and the 3:1 Rules in Ground Combat
This report illustrates a number of basic principles about aggregation and disaggregation in combat modeling by working through the mathematics and phenomenology of a concrete example.
1995
Report
Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies
This report applies an exploratory methodology for developing alternative models of the reasoning of national leaders considering acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.
1994
Report
New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough
This book is a collection of essays by senior defense analysts at RAND, all of whom have been deeply involved in post-Cold War defense planning studies for the Department of Defense.
1994
Report
Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era: Giving Meaning to Flexibility, Adaptiveness, and Robustness of Capability
This study describes a new approach to defense planning that would better integrate strategic, programmatic, and operations planning.
1993
Report
An Introduction to Variable-Resolution Modeling and Cross-Resolution Model Connection
This paper is an introduction to the subject of variable-resolution modeling (VRM) and the closely related issue of connecting models of different resolution to create a "family."
1993
Report
Proceedings of Conference on Variable-Resolution Modeling, Washington DC, 5-6 May 1992
Reports the results of a conference held under the aegis of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
1993
Report
Stopping the North Korean Nuclear Program
This issue paper examines three strategies which, as of late 1993, the United States could bring to bear against the North Korean regime to discontinue this program.
1993
Report
Toward a Comprehensive Environment for Computer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis
Describes the authors' views about a new type of computer "environment" that is both needed and possible for modeling and analysis.
1993
Report
Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the ''Old World Order''
This Note is the companion piece to earlier work, which described a methodology for analyzing and gaming opponent reasoning and reported on its employment during and after the recent conflict with Iraq.
1992
Report
Generalizing Concepts and Methods of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) for Military Simulations
The study illustrates many of its suggestions about VV&A with specific examples of language that might be used in reports and accreditation reviews.
1992
Report
Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling: Motivations, Issues, and Principles
Introduces and discusses variable-resolution modeling. Specifically, the authors discuss why various levels of resolution are needed in combat models and why many model users have not fully appreciated this need; ...
1992
Report
Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough?
Describes a methodology for estimating the force levels that would be needed to defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf crisis, and it describes the results of a preliminary analysis performed using the methodology.
1991
Report
The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling
In this Note, the authors recommend that the Secretary of Defense establish an Office of Military Science (OMS) to plan and administer the process of creating the national environment necessary for a vigorous military science.
1991
Report
Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War with Saddam Hussein
Applies an experimental interdisciplinary methodology for understanding the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict and for using that understanding to develop well-hedged and adaptive deterrent strategies.
1991
Report
Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion
Draws on strategic analysis, cognitive psychology, gaming, and artificial intelligence modeling to describe a theory and concrete methodology for thinking about the likely and possible reasoning of opponents before or during crisis and conflict.
1991
Report
An Analyst's Primer for the RAND/ABEL Programming Language
This Note is a primer for analysts wishing to use the RAND/ABEL programming language, a fast, high-level, strongly typed procedural language developed for use in building large and complex knowledge-based simulations in a C/UNIX environment. The prim...
1990
Report
Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic Environment
The recent changes in Europe have transformed the strategic landscape and altered what can be accomplished with respect to security. This report proposes a framework of new NATO objectives and a strategy for accomplishing them.
1990
Report
Representing Operational Strategies and Command-Control in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
Describes RAND's approach in developing and applying a new generation of analytic tools to remedy this problem — the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS).
1990
Report
Central Region Stability in a Deep-Cuts Regime
Critically reviews the static-analysis arguments underlying concerns about low force levels and presents the results of both simple analytic modeling and more complex simulation modeling of the deep-cuts regime.
1989
Research Brief
A Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Central Europe
Operational arms control measures can improve NATO’s military security through three key elements: reducing the threat of strategic or operational surprise, raising the risks of preparing for attacks, and improving NATO’s tactical odds on D-Day.
1989
Report
Modeling of Soft Factors in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
Discusses how selected soft factors have been and could be represented in combat models, theater-level decision models dealing with command-control issues, and national-command-level models dealing with issues of national policy, strategy, and controls.
1989
Report
National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty
The author describes an approach to national security strategy that begins by characterizing the future environment in terms of a core part and surrounding uncertainties.
1989
Report
Simulated Central Region Conflicts at Nominal Parity and Low Force Levels
Describes simulation and gaming experiments that were part of a larger policy analysis identifying important variables affecting stability in NATO's Central Region in such a regime.
1989
Report
Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
This Note contains the text of an oral presentation delivered to the third "Thinking Red in War Games" workshop held at the National Defense University in June 1988.
1989
Report
Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking
First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings.
1989
Report
Variables Affecting Central-Region Stability: The 'Operational Minimum' and Other Issues at Low Force Levels
The negotiations on conventional forces in Europe (CFE) include the principle of mutual reductions to parity at force levels below NATO's current levels.
1989
Report
Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation
This Note describes a large-scale program melding rule-based modeling and traditional simulation in the problem domain of game-structured military strategic analysis.
1988
Report
Explanation Mechanisms for Knowledge-Based Models in the RAND Strategy Assessment System
This user's manual for understanding the behavior of knowledge-based decision models written in the RAND-ABEL programming language and incorporated in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) teaches the user how to use the RSAS explanation mechanisms.
1988
Report
Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning
Argues that NATO defense planning should make use of conceptual structures akin to global political-military war gaming.
1988
Report
Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0)
This Note provides an overview of the main theater warfare model developed as part of the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS, Release 3.0), in a game-structured simulation of global conflict.
1988
Report
Overview of System Software in the RAND Strategy Assessment System
Documents and updates a briefing given in January 1988 on the system-software aspects of the RAND Strategy Assessment System.
1988
Report
The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the NATO/Pact Central Region Balance
This Note discusses the military balance as measured by likely war outcomes if deterrence were to fail, and the challenge of addressing that warfighting balance in the face of great uncertainty.
1988
Report
Toward a Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Europe's Central Region
Sketches a military framework for conceiving and evaluating measures for operational arms control in Europe's central region — i.e., arms control affecting the operations and readiness of forces.
1988
Research Brief
Analytic War Gaming with the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)
The RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS), an integrated collection of models and other information systems, allows users to engage in strategic analysis — the combination of subtle, non-quantitative aspects of human war gaming with analytic modeling.
1987
Report
Formalization of Tradeoff Rules and Other Techniques for Comprehending Complex Rule-Based Models
Describes techniques used in a large and complex knowledge-based simulation with thousands of qualitative rules organized hierarchically, which requires recursive combining rules.
1987
Research Brief
Modeling Wartime Decisionmaking at the National Command Level
Summary of R-3290-NA, which describes and illustrates a methodology for modeling National Command Level (NCL) decisionmaking in large-scale crisis and conflict involving both superpowers.
1987
Report
A New Analytic Technique for the Study of Deterrence, Escalation Control, and War Termination
The study of deterrence, escalation control, and war termination (DEWT) is important because the resulting concepts and mindsets affect the way nations formulate and analyze defense programs and political-military strategies in peacetime, and...
1986
Report
A New Methodology for Modeling National Command Level Decisionmaking in War Games and Simulations
Describes and illustrates a methodology for modeling National Command Level (NCL) decisionmaking in large-scale crisis and conflict involving both superpowers.
1986
Report
Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation
Describes a large-scale program melding rule-based modeling and traditional simulation in the problem domain of game-structured military strategic analysis in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center.
1985
Report
Characterizing the Temperaments of Red and Blue Agents: Models of Soviet and U.S. Decisionmakers
This Note presents a structure for characterizing the temperament of alternative Red and Blue Agents, models representing national command-level decisionmakers in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's system for automated war gaming.
1985
Report
Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning
The debate about NATO's defense options has changed little in more than twenty years, with even less convergence of views.
1985
Report
Search for a Red Agent to be Used in War Games and Simulations
Describes an ongoing program to develop automated models (Red Agents) of plausible Soviet behavior for use in war games and simulations. It defines Red Agents and outlines objectives for their use.
1985
Report
Concepts and Models of Escalation
Describes a conceptual decision model for treating escalation processes in the automated war gaming of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center.
1984
Report
RAND's Experience in Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Military-Political War Gaming
This paper highlights, for those interested in advanced information science, some recent experience in RAND's Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC), a large-scale Department of Defense program to develop new concepts and techniques combining features ...
1984
Report
The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis
Experience with the prototype system has highlighted some very challenging issues in learning how to use humans and machines effectively in war gaming and analysis. This paper discusses some of those issues.
1984
Report
Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues
Describes a preliminary concept for including strategic command and control effects within the automated war gaming of RAND's Strategy Assessment Center.
1983
Report
The RAND Strategy Assessment Center: An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options
The RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC) is an ambitious multiyear effort to improve methods of strategy analysis by combining the best features of war gaming and analytic modeling.
1983
Report
Treatment of Escalation in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center
This Note reviews mechanisms of escalation that should be included in the work of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC), and discusses alternative ways of doing so analytically.
1983
Report
Concepts for improving the military content of automated war games
This paper describes one aspect of recent work in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC), the challenge of finding ways to incorporate military realism in analytically oriented automated war games. Meeting the challenge has required developing n...
1982
Report
Improving the Military Content of Strategy Analysis Using Automated War Games: A Technical Approach and an Agenda for Research
This Note describes new concepts for building a high degree of military content into the automated war games.
1982
Report
Observations on the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force: Origins, Direction, and Mission
Since the summer of 1979 there has been an accelerating effort in the United States to increase capabilities for non-NATO contingencies in the Middle East, particularly in Southwest Asia, the area surrounding the Persian Gulf. The newly created Rapid...
1982