Commentary on potential lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war bearing on deterrence in Northeast Asia, including lessons related to nuclear weapons.
Feb 21, 2023
Paul K. Davis is a retired senior principal researcher and adjunct at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, deterrence theory, counterterrorism, advanced methods of analysis, modeling, and gaming, and heterogeneous information fusion. He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, deterrence and influence theory, social science for counterterrorism, and social-behavioral modeling for complex systems. Before joining RAND, Davis was a senior executive in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the National Academy, and the Intelligence Community; he is also a regular reviewer of several professional journals. Davis received his Ph.D. in theoretical chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Davis, Paul K., Angela O'Mahony, Christian Curriden, and Jonathan Lamb, Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms, RAND Corporation (RR-A161-1), 2021
Paul K. Davis, Angela O'Mahony, and Jonathan Pfautz (eds.), Social Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems, Wiley & Sons, 2019
Davis, Paul K., Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity, RAND Corporation (RR-482-OSD), 2014
Davis, Paul K., Angela O'Mahony, A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling, RAND Corporation (TR-1220-OSD), 2013
Paul K. Davis and Kim Cragin, Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, RAND Corporation (MG-849), 2009
Davis, Paul K., Russell D. Shaver, and Justin Beck, Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, RAND Corporation (MG-662-OSD), 2008
Paul K. Davis and Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism, RAND Corporation (MR-1619), 2002
The RAND Corporation, New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough, RAND Corporation (MR-400-RC), 1994