Paul K. Davis

Journal Article

Potential Implications of the Russia–Ukraine War for Northeast Asia

Commentary on potential lessons from the Russia–Ukraine war bearing on deterrence in Northeast Asia, including lessons related to nuclear weapons.

Journal Article

Broad and Selectively Deep: An MRMPM Paradigm for Supporting Analysis

To aid policy analysis and decision making, projects should use models and simulations of varied resolution and perspective. This can improve analysis, improve communication, and provide a broad view, necessary detail, and alternative views.

Report

Adaptive Engagement for Undergoverned Spaces: Concepts, Challenges, and Prospects for New Approaches

This report is a compendium of expert insights regarding opportunities for investing in science and technology to increase U.S. ability to engage in long-term competition in undergoverned spaces.

Journal Article

Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula

The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

Journal Article

Artificial Intelligence for Wargaming and Modeling

We discuss how AI can be used in modeling, simulation, wargaming, and combinations thereof, focusing largely on the strategic political-military level.

Journal Article

An Analysis-Centric View of Wargaming, Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

This paper discusses how wargaming can be used as part of an analysis campaign in a sequence of model-game-model activities, always with the intent to assist analysis.

Journal Article

A New Ethical Principle for Analysts Who Use Models

Analysts have long embraced the ethic of revealing assumptions that underlie their conclusions. Analysts should preemptively explain how their conclusions vary with changes of important assumptions reflecting uncertainties and disagreements.

Journal Article

Modeling Infectious Behaviors: The Need to Account for Behavioral Adaptation in COVID-19 Models

In this essay we discuss the need for new types of simulation models of COVID-19 that couple transmission dynamics with adaptive behaviors.

Journal Article

Reforming the Teaching and Conducting of Policy Studies to Deal Better with Complex Systems

The teaching and conduct of policy analysis needs updating to account better for the special challenges of social problems occurring in complex adaptive systems.

Journal Article

Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

This article is a commentary on a paper by Lustick and Tetlock (2021), on forecasting, decisionmaking, and the intelligence community.

Report

Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms

RAND researchers describe an experimental "thinking-Red" approach to analysis, wargaming, and other exercises to help inform strategies to avoid aggression or escalation in a crisis. It features alternative models of the adversary.

Journal Article

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.

Report

Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.

Journal Article

An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation: New Data and New Challenges

We review issues of data infrastructure and artificial intelligence for social and behavioral modeling. Among the newer machine learning methods,adversarial training and fuzzy cognitive maps have particular unrealized potential.

Journal Article

Ethical and Privacy Issues in Social-Behavioral Research

We discuss key ethical and privacy issues: meaningful user notice,assuring usable and accurate access control, anonymizing data, validating algorithms to avoid harms, addressing harms, and deterring abuse.

Journal Article

Improving Social-Behavioral Modeling

We identify priority challenges for SB modeling. These involve dealing with complex adaptive systems and deep uncertainty, but also cultural issues such as better relating data-driven and theory-driven research and seeking more coherent models.

Journal Article

Lessons on Decision Aiding for Social-Behavioral Modeling

This chapter draws on lessons from other domains to suggest ways for social-behavioral modeling to be useful in aiding high-level decision-making on both national security and social-policy issues.

Journal Article

Panel Discussion: Moving Social-Behavioral Modeling Forward

This chapter describes panel discussion and debate relating to various multi-scale phenomena in social science, including emergence.

Journal Article

Social-Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems

This volume describes frontiers in social-behavioral modeling for diverse contexts. Recent advances have created great opportunities, but so also there are great scientific, technical, and ethical challenges.

Journal Article

Defense Planning When Major Changes Are Needed

The special efforts needed to make "big things happen" in defense planning.

Report

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Draft

An Artificial Intelligence/Machine Learning Perspective on Social Simulation: New Data and New Challenges

Reviews the current state of the art in data infrastructure and artificial intelligence approaches that could be valuable for social and behavioral modeling.

Draft

Illustrating a Model-Game-Model Paradigm for Using Human Wargames in Analysis

Proposes and illustrates an analysis-centric paradigm (model-game-model or what might be better called model-exercise-model in some cases) for relating human wargaming to modeling and analysis.

Report

Capabilities for Joint Analysis in the Department of Defense: Rethinking Support for Strategic Analysis

This report stems from a congressional request for an independent report about the U.S. Department of Defense's capabilities for joint analysis and ways to improve them.

Report

Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

This report provides a risk assessment methodology that integrates risk factors and risk management approaches tailored to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's management, operations, and acquisition structures.

Journal Article

Deterrence and Stability for the Korean Peninsula

RAND and KIDA have been conducting a collaborative research addressing the issue of deterrence and stability for the Korean Peninsula.

Draft

Simple Culture-Informed Models of the Adversary

Describes a series of research efforts over three decades to build simple cognitive models of the adversary, some as complex computer programs and some exceptionally simple.

Report

Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

Presents research on methods for heterogeneous information fusion -- combining data that are qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, ambiguous, contradictory, and even deceptive, in order to form a realistic assessment of threat in a counterterrorism context.

Journal Article

Using Causal Models in Heterogeneous Information Fusion to Detect Terrorists

We describe basic research that uses a causal, uncertainty-sensitive computational model rooted in qualitative social science to fuse disparate pieces of threat information.

Draft

Causal Models and Exploratory Analysis in Heterogeneous Information Fusion for Detecting Potential Terrorists

Describes research fusing heterogeneous information in an effort eventually to detect terrorists, reduce false alarms, and exonerate those falsely identified.

Report

Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity

Defense analysis can better serve policymakers by exploiting improvements in the state of the art and by rediscovering and supplementing classic principles. These relate to multiple objectives and hedging against uncertainty.

Draft

Toward Theory for Dissuasion (or Deterrence) by Denial: Using Simple Cognitive Models of the Adversary to Inform Strategy

Derived from a paper presented at the conference, Deterrence by Denial: Theory, Practice, and Empiricism, held at the Munk School of the University of Toronto, October 18-20, 2013.

Journal Article

Deterrence, Influence, Cyber Attack, and Cyberwar

This study uses a simple model to speculate about whether deterrence can be a significant part of dealing with special features of the cyber attack challenge, and distinguishing different classes and contexts of cyber threats.

Research Brief

Using Behavioral Indicators to Detect Potential Violent Acts

Provides an overview of research on how observable behavioral indicators might be used to detect potential violent attacks, such as by suicide terrorists or those laying improvised explosive devices.

Report

Using Behavioral Indicators to Help Detect Potential Violent Acts: A Review of the Science Base

Reviews the scientific literature relating to observable behavioral indicators that might, along with other information, help detect potential violent attacks, such as those by suicide terrorists or the laying of improvised explosive devices.

Report

A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling

Details a prototype computational model that seeks to explain, as a function of contributing factors, the extent of public support for insurgency and its use of terrorism. The model is believed to be reusable and suitable for composition.

Journal Article

Advancing Clinical Decision Support Using Lessons from Outside of Healthcare: An Interdisciplinary Systematic Review

National efforts to advance the health information agenda could profit from experience with computerized decision support in defense and business.

Report

Lessons from RAND's Work on Planning Under Uncertainty for National Security

This review of two decades of RAND work on uncertainty analysis for national security applications shows the wide range of uncertainties that arise, the variety of analytic techniques needed, and progress made in dealing with deep uncertainty.

Report

Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism

Drawing on social science and particularly social movement theory, presents and tests empirically a conceptual model of public support for insurgency and terrorism and discusses how it can inform counterinsurgency and counterterrorism strategy.

Draft

Influencing Violent Extremist Organizations and Their Supporters without Adverse Side Effects

Discusses approaches, strategies, and an application to understanding and influencing public support of insurgency and terrorism.

Journal Article

Toward an Analytic Basis for Influence Strategy in Counterterrorism

This chapter discusses terrorism-related deterrence and influence analytically.

Draft

Structuring Analysis to Support Future Decisions about Nuclear Forces and Postures

Explores how to evaluate future nuclear forces and postures and makes recommendations.

Report

Dilemmas of Intervention: Social Science for Stabilization and Reconstruction

Reviews and integrates the scholarly social-science literature relevant to stabilization and reconstruction, with the goal of informing strategic planning at the whole-of-government level.

Journal Article

The Looming Crisis in Defense Planning

Technology diffusion, geostrategic changes, and a proliferation of well-armed adversaries are forcing Washington to deal with a mix of counterinsurgency and counterterrorism and at the same time provide against traditional challenges.

Report

Looming Discontinuities in U.S. Military Strategy and Defense Planning: Colliding RMAs Necessitate a New Strategy

U.S. defense planning is beset with technology-related problems for force projection, obsolescence of forces and concepts of operations, and the need for a new Asian-Pacific strategy. Finding the way ahead amidst fiscal constraints is challenging.

Report

Paradigm-Level Issues in M&S: Historical Lessons and Current Challenges

Discusses alternative ways to think about modeling and simulation.

Report

Reflecting Warfighter Needs in Air Force Programs: Prototype Analysis

Documents the first phase of a study aimed at finding ways to ensure that warfighter needs are adequately represented as the Air Force manages its programs and budget.

Report

Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda

Simple, conceptual models can be used to help guide thinking about how to deter or to otherwise influence potential, actual, or disengaging terrorists and the many people who support their organizations directly or indirectly.

Report

Measuring the Effectiveness of Border Security Between Ports-of-Entry

Focusing on three missions -- illegal drug control, counterterrorism, and illegal migration -- this report recommends ways to measure performance of U.S. border-security efforts in terms of interdiction, deterrence, and exploiting networked intelligence.

Report

Military Transformation? Which Transformation, and What Lies Ahead?

Discusses military transformation across the eight years of the George W. Bush administration, particularly those in which Donald Rumsfeld was secretary of defense.

Report

RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT): Theory, Methods, and Reference Manual

An evolved version of RAND's Portfolio Analysis Tool (PAT) will assist high-level decisionmakers in thinking about balance, constructing good multifaceted options for consideration, and making subsequent choices.

Report

Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together

Why does terrorism arise and decline? Why do people become terrorists or disengage? How do terrorists generate, maintain, or lose public support? How do terrorists make decisions? These are the questions that the authors address.

Report

Specifying the Content of Humble Social-Science Models

Describes ways to specify important static content of social-science models for counterterrorism without dependence on a particular computer language or environment.

Research Brief

Setting Global Defense Strategy in the Face of Uncertainty

This research brief describes an approach that can be used in today's highly fluid global security environment to compare the likely effectiveness, risks, and costs of alternative national defense strategies.

Report

Developing Resource-Informed Strategic Assessments and Recommendations

A portfolio-analysis approach that deals explicitly with both uncertainty and differences of strategic perspective allows an integrated comparison of alternative strategies' effectiveness, risks, and resource implications.

Report

Analysis of Strategy and Strategies of Analysis

In a fluid global security environment such as ours, assessing the costs, risks, and likely consequences of alternative national defense strategies is as hard as it is essential.

Report

Finding Candidate Options for Investment: From Building Blocks to Composite Options and Preliminary Screening

A methodology and prototype tool, the Building Blocks To Composite Options Tool (BCOT), that identifies investment options for defense capability areas, then uses a screening technique to identify those meriting more-extensive assessment in a fuller portfolio-analysis framework.

Research Brief

Improving Strategic Planning at the Department of Defense

This research brief summarizes a monograph presenting a framework, methods, and tools to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military services. The monograph deals with choice and risk.

Report

Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options

An analytical framework and methodology for defensewide capability-area reviews is described, along with two new tools developed to support capabilities analysis and related tradeoff work within the Department of Defense and the military Services.

Report

Theory and Methods for Supporting High Level Military Decisionmaking

A framework for supporting high-level decisionmaking, one that deals explicitly with uncertainty to produce flexible, adaptive, and robust (FAR) strategies, and does so in support of both ''rational-analytic'' and ''intuitive'' decisionmakers.

Report

Enhancing Strategic Planning with Massive Scenario Generation: Theory and Experiments

Man-machine exploration of the ''possibility space'' in strategic planning using massive scenario.

Report

Analysis, Analysis Practices, and Implications for Modeling and Simulation

Reviews analysis and analysis practices for defense planning and draws important implications for models and simulations.

Report

A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD): Methodology and User’s Manual

A tool to facilitate high-level discussion of program tradeoffs and adjustments in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA).

Report

Implications of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems

An overview of higher-level decisionmaking and modern methods to improve decision support.

Draft

Introduction to Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis

Report

Challenges in Virtual Collaboration: Videoconferencing, Audioconferencing, and Computer-Mediated Communications

Virtual, or mediated, communication: effects of communication media and a strategy for improving their use.

Report

Improving the Composability of Department of Defense Models and Simulations

Making future DoD models and simulations more composable

Research Brief

Modern Decision Support Science Suggests New Methods and Tools to Support Military Decisionmaking

Decision science seeks to understand how people make decisions and how those decisions can be improved. Modern developments in decision science could assist the Air Force plan its research programs for improving decision support.

Report

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Addresses the new challenges for defense policy in a world transformed by the end of the Cold War and then the war on terrorism, and sketches new analytic techniques for framing particular defense issues.

Report

Implications for Model Validation of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling (MRMPM) and Exploratory Analysis

Using multiresolution, multiperspective modeling and exploratory analysis to validate models for specific contexts

Report

Motivated Metamodels: Synthesis of Cause-Effect Reasoning and Statistical Metamodeling

Illuminates why it can be important to improve the quality of metamodels by using even modest phenomenological knowledge to help structure them.

Research Brief

Assessing the Validity of Uncertain Models

RAND Project AIR FORCE has reported a set of concepts that will improve analysts' ability to deal with uncertain models and data.

Report

Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals

Takes a first cut at identifying metrics for evaluating, advancing, and monitoring progress toward attaining the six operational goals highlighted in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review.

Journal Article

Military Applications of Simulation: A Selected Review

This chapter provides a selective overview of simulation activities taking place within the U.S. defense community.

Report

Modeling Adversaries and Related Cognitive Biases

A collection of three papers related to cognitive modeling of adversaries

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003

Examines the debate regarding the safety and efficacy of ephedra; also covers contrasting lessons from different educational interventions, a "systems approach" to counterterrorism, domestic abuse, public health, and genetic manipulation.

Report

Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda

The U.S. counterterrorism strategy should include political warfare, placing at risk things the terrorists hold dear, a credible threat of force against states or groups that support acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and maintaining cooperation with other nations engaged in the war on terror.

Report

Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation

Analytic Architecture for Capabilities-Based Planning, Mission-System Analysis, and Transformation

Report

Measuring Interdiction Capabilities in the Presence of Anti-Access Strategies: Exploratory Analysis to Inform Adaptive Strategy for the Persian Gulf

This book discusses how U.S. capabilities for interdicting invading ground forces in the Persian Gulf can be adapted over time to maintain the ability to achieve an early halt or to counter maneuver forces in other plausible campaigns.

Report

Integrating Transformation Programs

Integrating Transformation Programs

Report

Effects-Based Operations (EBO): A Grand Challenge for the Analytical Community

This monograph suggests principles for sharpening discussions of Effects-based operations (EBO), increasing the rigor of those discussions, and building the key ideas of EBO into analysis for defense planning, experimentation, and operations planning.

Report

Exploratory Analysis and a Case History of Multiresolution, Multiperspective Modeling

... originated in an effort to illustrate concretely how modeling and analysis could be used to help inform efforts by the Department of Defense to understand and evaluate advanced concepts and define critical issues worthy of experimentation.

Report

Ground Forces for a Rapidly Employable Joint Task Force: First-Week Capabilities for Short-Warning Conflicts

This monograph is a "think piece" about rapidly deployable future ground forces that would be used in time-urgent joint-task-force missions.

Report

EXHALT: Interdiction Model for Exploring Halt Capabilities in a Large Scenario Space

Documents a relatively simple personal-computer model of interdiction in "the early halt problem" — the military problem of halting an invading army quickly. The authors' emphasis is on broad-ranging exploratory analysis at the aggregate level.

Report

Effects of Terrain, Maneuver Tactics, and C4ISR on the Effectiveness of Long-Range Precision Fires: A Stochastic Multiresolution Model (PEM) Calibrated to High-Resolution Simulation

This study was motivated by the results of high-resolution simulations of long-range precision fires that were employed against an invader marching through mixed terrain.

Report

Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force"

Analytical Methods for Studies and Experiments on "Transforming the Force"

Report

Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System

Resource Allocation for the New Defense Strategy: The DynaRank Decision-Support System

Report

Experiments In Multiresolution Modeling (MRM)

Describes the motivation for multiresolution modeling (MRM) within a single model or a family of models.

Report

Transforming the Force: Suggestions for DoD Strategy

The Department of Defense is embarking on an effort to transform U.S. forces for the years and decades ahead.

Report

Exploratory Analysis of ''The Halt Problem": A Briefing on Methods and Initial Insights

Describes a prototype high-level

Report

Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making

Protecting weak and medium-strength states : issues of deterrence, stability, and decision making

Report

Strategic Issues and Options for the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR)

This briefing develops and examines a wide range of strategic options for the defense program and posture.

Report

A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning

A Composite Approach to Air Force Planning

Report

Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework

Adaptiveness in National Defense: The Basis of a New Framework

Report

Aggregation, Disaggregation, and the 3:1 Rules in Ground Combat

This report illustrates a number of basic principles about aggregation and disaggregation in combat modeling by working through the mathematics and phenomenology of a concrete example.

Report

Modeling Decisionmaking of Potential Proliferators as Part of Developing Counterproliferation Strategies

This report applies an exploratory methodology for developing alternative models of the reasoning of national leaders considering acquisition of weapons of mass destruction.

Report

New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough

This book is a collection of essays by senior defense analysts at RAND, all of whom have been deeply involved in post-Cold War defense planning studies for the Department of Defense.

Report

Defense Planning for the Post-Cold War Era: Giving Meaning to Flexibility, Adaptiveness, and Robustness of Capability

This study describes a new approach to defense planning that would better integrate strategic, programmatic, and operations planning.

Report

An Introduction to Variable-Resolution Modeling and Cross-Resolution Model Connection

This paper is an introduction to the subject of variable-resolution modeling (VRM) and the closely related issue of connecting models of different resolution to create a "family."

Report

Proceedings of Conference on Variable-Resolution Modeling, Washington DC, 5-6 May 1992

Reports the results of a conference held under the aegis of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

Report

Stopping the North Korean Nuclear Program

This issue paper examines three strategies which, as of late 1993, the United States could bring to bear against the North Korean regime to discontinue this program.

Report

Toward a Comprehensive Environment for Computer Modeling, Simulation, and Analysis

Describes the authors' views about a new type of computer "environment" that is both needed and possible for modeling and analysis.

Report

Extended Deterrence, Compellence and the ''Old World Order''

This Note is the companion piece to earlier work, which described a methodology for analyzing and gaming opponent reasoning and reported on its employment during and after the recent conflict with Iraq.

Report

Generalizing Concepts and Methods of Verification, Validation, and Accreditation (VV&A) for Military Simulations

The study illustrates many of its suggestions about VV&A with specific examples of language that might be used in reports and accreditation reviews.

Report

Variable-Resolution Combat Modeling: Motivations, Issues, and Principles

Introduces and discusses variable-resolution modeling. Specifically, the authors discuss why various levels of resolution are needed in combat models and why many model users have not fully appreciated this need; ...

Report

Possible Postwar Force Requirements for the Persian Gulf: How Little Is Enough?

Describes a methodology for estimating the force levels that would be needed to defend Saudi Arabia and Kuwait in the aftermath of the Persian Gulf crisis, and it describes the results of a preliminary analysis performed using the methodology.

Report

The Base of Sand Problem: A White Paper on the State of Military Combat Modeling

In this Note, the authors recommend that the Secretary of Defense establish an Office of Military Science (OMS) to plan and administer the process of creating the national environment necessary for a vigorous military science.

Report

Deterring or Coercing Opponents in Crisis: Lessons from the War with Saddam Hussein

Applies an experimental interdisciplinary methodology for understanding the possible reasoning of opponents in crisis and conflict and for using that understanding to develop well-hedged and adaptive deterrent strategies.

Report

Thinking About Opponent Behavior in Crisis and Conflict: A Generic Model for Analysis and Group Discussion

Draws on strategic analysis, cognitive psychology, gaming, and artificial intelligence modeling to describe a theory and concrete methodology for thinking about the likely and possible reasoning of opponents before or during crisis and conflict.

Report

An Analyst's Primer for the RAND/ABEL Programming Language

This Note is a primer for analysts wishing to use the RAND/ABEL programming language, a fast, high-level, strongly typed procedural language developed for use in building large and complex knowledge-based simulations in a C/UNIX environment. The prim...

Report

Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe: Implications of the New Strategic Environment

The recent changes in Europe have transformed the strategic landscape and altered what can be accomplished with respect to security. This report proposes a framework of new NATO objectives and a strategy for accomplishing them.

Report

Representing Operational Strategies and Command-Control in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Describes RAND's approach in developing and applying a new generation of analytic tools to remedy this problem — the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS).

Report

Central Region Stability in a Deep-Cuts Regime

Critically reviews the static-analysis arguments underlying concerns about low force levels and presents the results of both simple analytic modeling and more complex simulation modeling of the deep-cuts regime.

Research Brief

A Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Central Europe

Operational arms control measures can improve NATO’s military security through three key elements: reducing the threat of strategic or operational surprise, raising the risks of preparing for attacks, and improving NATO’s tactical odds on D-Day.

Report

Modeling of Soft Factors in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

Discusses how selected soft factors have been and could be represented in combat models, theater-level decision models dealing with command-control issues, and national-command-level models dealing with issues of national policy, strategy, and controls.

Report

National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty

The author describes an approach to national security strategy that begins by characterizing the future environment in terms of a core part and surrounding uncertainties.

Report

Simulated Central Region Conflicts at Nominal Parity and Low Force Levels

Describes simulation and gaming experiments that were part of a larger policy analysis identifying important variables affecting stability in NATO's Central Region in such a regime.

Report

Some Lessons Learned from Building Red Agents in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

This Note contains the text of an oral presentation delivered to the third "Thinking Red in War Games" workshop held at the National Defense University in June 1988.

Report

Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking

First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings.

Report

Variables Affecting Central-Region Stability: The 'Operational Minimum' and Other Issues at Low Force Levels

The negotiations on conventional forces in Europe (CFE) include the principle of mutual reductions to parity at force levels below NATO's current levels.

Report

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation

This Note describes a large-scale program melding rule-based modeling and traditional simulation in the problem domain of game-structured military strategic analysis.

Report

Explanation Mechanisms for Knowledge-Based Models in the RAND Strategy Assessment System

This user's manual for understanding the behavior of knowledge-based decision models written in the RAND-ABEL programming language and incorporated in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) teaches the user how to use the RSAS explanation mechanisms.

Report

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning

Argues that NATO defense planning should make use of conceptual structures akin to global political-military war gaming.

Report

Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0)

This Note provides an overview of the main theater warfare model developed as part of the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS, Release 3.0), in a game-structured simulation of global conflict.

Report

Overview of System Software in the RAND Strategy Assessment System

Documents and updates a briefing given in January 1988 on the system-software aspects of the RAND Strategy Assessment System.

Report

The Role of Uncertainty in Assessing the NATO/Pact Central Region Balance

This Note discusses the military balance as measured by likely war outcomes if deterrence were to fail, and the challenge of addressing that warfighting balance in the face of great uncertainty.

Report

Toward a Conceptual Framework for Operational Arms Control in Europe's Central Region

Sketches a military framework for conceiving and evaluating measures for operational arms control in Europe's central region — i.e., arms control affecting the operations and readiness of forces.

Research Brief

Analytic War Gaming with the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS)

The RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS), an integrated collection of models and other information systems, allows users to engage in strategic analysis — the combination of subtle, non-quantitative aspects of human war gaming with analytic modeling.

Report

Formalization of Tradeoff Rules and Other Techniques for Comprehending Complex Rule-Based Models

Describes techniques used in a large and complex knowledge-based simulation with thousands of qualitative rules organized hierarchically, which requires recursive combining rules.

Research Brief

Modeling Wartime Decisionmaking at the National Command Level

Summary of R-3290-NA, which describes and illustrates a methodology for modeling National Command Level (NCL) decisionmaking in large-scale crisis and conflict involving both superpowers.

Report

A New Analytic Technique for the Study of Deterrence, Escalation Control, and War Termination

The study of deterrence, escalation control, and war termination (DEWT) is important because the resulting concepts and mindsets affect the way nations formulate and analyze defense programs and political-military strategies in peacetime, and...

Report

A New Methodology for Modeling National Command Level Decisionmaking in War Games and Simulations

Describes and illustrates a methodology for modeling National Command Level (NCL) decisionmaking in large-scale crisis and conflict involving both superpowers.

Report

Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Gaming and Simulation

Describes a large-scale program melding rule-based modeling and traditional simulation in the problem domain of game-structured military strategic analysis in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center.

Report

Characterizing the Temperaments of Red and Blue Agents: Models of Soviet and U.S. Decisionmakers

This Note presents a structure for characterizing the temperament of alternative Red and Blue Agents, models representing national command-level decisionmakers in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center's system for automated war gaming.

Report

Game-Structured Analysis as a Framework for Defense Planning

The debate about NATO's defense options has changed little in more than twenty years, with even less convergence of views.

Report

Search for a Red Agent to be Used in War Games and Simulations

Describes an ongoing program to develop automated models (Red Agents) of plausible Soviet behavior for use in war games and simulations. It defines Red Agents and outlines objectives for their use.

Report

Concepts and Models of Escalation

Describes a conceptual decision model for treating escalation processes in the automated war gaming of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center.

Report

RAND's Experience in Applying Artificial Intelligence Techniques to Strategic-Level Military-Political War Gaming

This paper highlights, for those interested in advanced information science, some recent experience in RAND's Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC), a large-scale Department of Defense program to develop new concepts and techniques combining features ...

Report

The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis

Experience with the prototype system has highlighted some very challenging issues in learning how to use humans and machines effectively in war gaming and analysis. This paper discusses some of those issues.

Report

Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues

Describes a preliminary concept for including strategic command and control effects within the automated war gaming of RAND's Strategy Assessment Center.

Report

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center: An Overview and Interim Conclusions about Utility and Development Options

The RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC) is an ambitious multiyear effort to improve methods of strategy analysis by combining the best features of war gaming and analytic modeling.

Report

Treatment of Escalation in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center

This Note reviews mechanisms of escalation that should be included in the work of the RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC), and discusses alternative ways of doing so analytically.

Report

Concepts for improving the military content of automated war games

This paper describes one aspect of recent work in the RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC), the challenge of finding ways to incorporate military realism in analytically oriented automated war games. Meeting the challenge has required developing n...

Report

Improving the Military Content of Strategy Analysis Using Automated War Games: A Technical Approach and an Agenda for Research

This Note describes new concepts for building a high degree of military content into the automated war games.

Report

Observations on the Rapid Deployment Joint Task Force: Origins, Direction, and Mission

Since the summer of 1979 there has been an accelerating effort in the United States to increase capabilities for non-NATO contingencies in the Middle East, particularly in Southwest Asia, the area surrounding the Persian Gulf. The newly created Rapid...