Paul K. Davis

Paul K. Davis
Adjunct Principal Researcher; Professor of Policy Analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School


Ph.D. in chemical physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; B.S. in chemisty, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

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Paul K. Davis is a retired senior principal researcher and adjunct at RAND and a professor of policy analysis at Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research interests include strategic planning and methods for improving it, decisionmaking theory, deterrence theory, counterterrorism, advanced methods of analysis, modeling, and gaming, and heterogeneous information fusion. He has authored or coauthored widely read books on defense planning, capabilities-based planning, portfolio analysis, deterrence and influence theory, social science for counterterrorism, and social-behavioral modeling for complex systems. Before joining RAND, Davis was a senior executive in the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD). He has served on numerous national panels for DoD, the National Academy, and the Intelligence Community; he is also a regular reviewer of several professional journals. Davis received his Ph.D. in theoretical chemical physics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. 

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Selected Publications

Davis, Paul K., Angela O'Mahony, Christian Curriden, and Jonathan Lamb, Influencing Adversary States: Quelling Perfect Storms, RAND Corporation (RR-A161-1), 2021

Paul K. Davis, Angela O'Mahony, and Jonathan Pfautz (eds.), Social Behavioral Modeling for Complex Systems, Wiley & Sons, 2019

Davis, Paul K., Analysis to Inform Defense Planning Despite Austerity, RAND Corporation (RR-482-OSD), 2014

Davis, Paul K., Angela O'Mahony, A Computational Model of Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism: A Prototype for More-General Social-Science Modeling, RAND Corporation (TR-1220-OSD), 2013

The RAND Corporation, Social Science for Counterterrorism: Putting the Pieces Together, RAND Corporation (MG-849), 2009

Davis, Paul K., Russell D. Shaver, and Justin Beck, Portfolio-Analysis Methods for Assessing Capability Options, RAND Corporation (MG-662-OSD), 2008

Davis, Paul K., Brian Michael Jenkins, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda, RAND Corporation (MR-1619), 2002

The RAND Corporation, New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough, RAND Corporation (MR-400-RC), 1994