Planning for Long-Term Security in Central Europe

Implications of the New Strategic Environment

by Paul K. Davis, Robert Howe

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The recent changes in Europe have transformed the strategic landscape and altered what can be accomplished with respect to security. This report proposes a framework of new NATO objectives and a strategy for accomplishing them. The approach recognizes the desirability of achieving long-term stability — a state characterized by robust security, predictability, the absence of crises and dangerous international tensions, a "reasonable" defense burden that is either constant or shrinking, and public satisfaction with the situation. To achieve this objective, the authors recommend thinking in terms of five subordinate objectives: (1) deter, without provocation, a Soviet invasion of Western Europe; (2) deter, without provocation, Soviet reentry into Eastern Europe; (3) maintain strategic equivalence; (4) deter rearmament; and (5) reduce sources of conflict and tension.

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