National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty

by Paul K. Davis


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This paper was developed for a conference, Conventional Forces and Arms Control: Technology and Strategy in a Changing World, organized by the Center for National Security Studies at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and held September 25-26, 1989. The author describes an approach to national security strategy that begins by characterizing the future environment in terms of a core part and surrounding uncertainties. He then describes a strategy with three components: a core strategy, an environment-shaping strategy, and a hedging strategy. He thus gives an idea of at least one way the United States may wish to plan in a period of great change and uncertainty.

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