Cover: National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty

National Security Planning in an Era of Uncertainty

Published 1989

by Paul K. Davis

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This paper was developed for a conference, Conventional Forces and Arms Control: Technology and Strategy in a Changing World, organized by the Center for National Security Studies at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and held September 25-26, 1989. The author describes an approach to national security strategy that begins by characterizing the future environment in terms of a core part and surrounding uncertainties. He then describes a strategy with three components: a core strategy, an environment-shaping strategy, and a hedging strategy. He thus gives an idea of at least one way the United States may wish to plan in a period of great change and uncertainty.

This report is part of the RAND paper series. The paper was a product of RAND from 1948 to 2003 that captured speeches, memorials, and derivative research, usually prepared on authors' own time and meant to be the scholarly or scientific contribution of individual authors to their professional fields. Papers were less formal than reports and did not require rigorous peer review.

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