Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking

Paul K. Davis

ResearchPublished 1989

First-strike stability depends on the improbability of crises and the improbability that crises would result in first strikes. This study focuses on the latter criterion, which in turn depends on crisis decisionmaking by human beings. The report argues that efforts to understand and improve first-strike stability should be guided by a formal theory of human decisionmaking that accounts for behavioral factors such as mindset, desperation, fatalism, perceptions, and fears. The author identifies three principal mechanisms for improving first-strike stability: (1) improve force-posture stability; (2) review and adjust nuclear policies and doctrine, and the way they are discussed; and (3) improve the likely quality of crisis decisionmaking through efforts involving education, exercises, and staffing.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1989
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 121
  • Paperback Price: $35.00
  • Paperback ISBN/EAN: 978-0-8330-0953-1
  • Document Number: R-3689-CC

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Davis, Paul K., Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking, RAND Corporation, R-3689-CC, 1989. As of September 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3689.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Davis, Paul K., Studying First-Strike Stability with Knowledge-Based Models of Human Decisionmaking. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1989. https://www.rand.org/pubs/reports/R3689.html. Also available in print form.
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