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It is still easy to underestimate how much the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War — and then the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 — transformed the task of American foreign and defense policymaking. In place of predictability (if a sometimes terrifying predictability), the world is now very unpredictable. In place of a single overriding threat and benchmark by which all else could be measured, a number of possible threats have arisen, not all of them states. In place of force-on-force engagements, U.S. defense planners have to assume “asymmetric” threats — ways not to defeat U.S. power but to render it irrelevant. This book frames the challenges for defense policy that the transformed world engenders, and it sketches new tools for dealing with those challenges — from new techniques in modeling and gaming, to planning based on capabilities rather than threats, to personnel planning and making use of “best practices” from the private sector.
Table of Contents
Preface
All Prefatory Materials
Introduction
Introduction to Part I: New Challenges for Defense
Chapter One
Decisionmaking for Defense
Chapter Two
Responding to Asymmetric Threats
Chapter Three
What Information Architecture for Defense?
Introduction to Part II: Coping with Uncertainty
Chapter Four
Incorporating Information Technology in Defense Planning
Chapter Five
Uncertainty-Sensitive Planning
Chapter Six
Planning the Future Military Workforce
Chapter Seven
The Soldier of the 21st Century
Chapter Eight
Adapting Best Commercial Practices to Defense
Introduction to Part III: New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Chapter Nine
Exploratory Analysis and Implications for Modeling
Chapter Ten
Using Exploratory Modeling
Chapter Eleven
Assessing Military Information Systems
Chapter Twelve
The "Day After" Methodology and National Security Analysis
Chapter Thirteen
Using Electronic Meeting Systems to Aid Defense Decisions
Afterword
Supplemental
Supplementary Materials
"'New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking' is another quality product from the folks at RAND. This edited work of Stuart Johnson, Martin Libicki, and Gregory Treverton provides new techniques and tools for defense planning. Drawing on a series of RAND studies, the book outlines advanced analysis methodologies for strategic planning. The 13 papers that constitute the book present the reader with a number of advanced decisionmaking techniques, including coping with uncertainty, incorporating information technology, exploratory modeling, and what RAND terms 'day after methodology'. This is a must-read for defense planners, policymakers, and those interested in futures assessment and strategic planning."
- Parameters, Autumn 2003
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