James Hosek

Adjunct Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. and M.A. in economics, University of Chicago; B.A. in English, Cornell University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

James Hosek is an adjunct economist at the RAND Corporation and professor at the Pardee RAND Graduate School. His research has focused on military recruiting, retention, compensation, deployment, personnel quality, and family well-being. Other topics include teacher retention and U.S. competitiveness in science and engineering.

He was editor-in-chief of The RAND Journal of Economics, a leading peer-reviewed journal on industrial organization, from 1989 to 2018. His management positions at RAND included chairing the Economics and Statistics Department, directing the Forces and Resources Policy Center of RAND's National Defense Research Institute, and serving as corporate research manager in Human Capital.

Hosek and his colleagues provided extensive analyses on military retirement reform to defense policymakers, and a reformed system was implemented in 2018. He conducted research for the 7th, 9th, 10th, and 11th Quadrennial Reviews of Military Compensation, was a member of the Strengthening America's Future initiative of the Center for the Study of the Presidency and Congress, and chaired the Economic Advisory Council of the California Institute, a nonprofit organization informing California's congressional delegation on policy matters.

Hosek's research has received RAND's gold and bronze Medal Awards, Spotlight Innovation award, and the President's Award. He is a member of Economists in National Security Analysis, a fellow of the Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, a member of the American Economic Association, and is in Who's Who. Hosek received his Ph.D. in economics from the University of Chicago.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

Military and Civilian Pay Levels, Trends, and Recruit Quality
A Wage Differential Approach to Managing Special and Incentive Pay
An Assessment of the Military Survivor Benefit Plan
Retirement Benefits and Teacher Retention: A Structural Modeling Approach
Toward Efficient Retirement Accrual Charges

Selected Publications

James Hosek, Shelley MacDermid, "Economic Conditions of Military Families," Future of Children, 2013

James Hosek, Beth Asch, John Warner, "New Economics of Manpower in the Post-Cold War Era," Handbook of Defense Economics, Vol. 2, 2007

Sebastian Negrusa, Brighita Negrusa, James Hosek, "Gone to War: Have Deployments Increased Divorces?" Journal of Population Economics, 2013

Mattock, Michael G., James Hosek, Beth J. Asch, and Rita T. Karam, Retaining U.S. Air Force Pilots When the Civilian Demand for Pilots Is Growing, RAND Corporation (RR-1455), 2016

Asch, Beth J., James Hosek, and Michael G. Mattock, Toward Meaningful Military Compensation Reform: Research in Support of DoD's Review, RAND Corporation (RR-501), 2014

Galama, Titus, James Hosek, U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology, RAND Corporation (MG-674), 2008

Hosek, James, Beth J. Asch, Michael G. Mattock, and Troy D. Smith, Military and Civilian Pay Levels, Trends, and Recruit Quality, RAND Corporation (RR-2396), 2018

Honors & Awards

President's Award, RAND
Gold Award, RAND
Spotlight Innovation Award, RAND

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Army Times; Associated Press; Los Angeles Times; Scripps Howard News Service; USA Today

Commentary: Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Commentary

Retirement and Retirement Benefits

The Hidden Costs of Pension Plan Reform
While there are many policy options that may decrease pension liabilities for Chicago and cities and states in similar situations, some options being considered may also have serious consequences for the public sector workforce, now and in the future.
May 18, 2016
The RAND Blog
Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy

U.S. Science Is Holding Its Own: Despite Cries of Alarm, We Remain the Global Leader in Innovation
Since the end of the Cold War, many observers have feared the United States is losing its leadership in science and technology, but RAND research shows that the U.S. has more than kept pace with its peers by several measures, write Titus Galama and James Hosek.
Jul 9, 2008
Pittsburgh Post-Gazette

Publications

Report
Modeling Career Enlisted Aviator Retention in the U.S. Air Force
The authors developed a U.S. Air Force career enlisted aviator (CEA)-specific model that can serve as the foundation for developing the analytic capability required to determine the efficient amount of special and incentive pay for CEAs.
Aug 5, 2020
Draft
Predicting Retention Behavior: Ex Ante Prediction and Ex Post Realization of a Voluntary Retirement Incentive Offer
Estimates a dynamic structural model of Chicago Public School teacher retention and made ex ante predictions of the number of teachers willing to take the voluntary retirement incentive and the VRI policy cost relative to the baseline of no VRI.
May 23, 2019
Report
Effects of the Blended Retirement System on United States Army Reserve Participation and Cost
Analysis of the new Blended Retirement System (BRS) finds that it can sustain U.S. Army Reserve participation relative to the legacy system. The analysis also predicts continuation-pay cost and the percentage of reservists opting in to the BRS.
Apr 15, 2019
Report
The Relative Cost-Effectiveness of Retaining Versus Accessing Air Force Pilots
Are special and incentive pays to retain current U.S. Air Force pilot officers more efficient for sustaining the size of the pilot force than accessing new pilots? If so, how much do those pays need to be?
Mar 27, 2019
Report
Assessing Retention and Special and Incentive Pays for Army and Navy Commissioned Officers in the Special Operations Forces
This report focuses on the effectiveness of monetary incentives, known as special and incentive pays, for U.S. Special Operations Forces commissioned officer retention.
Feb 18, 2019
Report
A Wage Differential Approach to Managing Special and Incentive Pay
The authors review special and incentive pays and the potential to convert some into a wage differential, finding pays with an incentive to select a longer military obligation more cost-effective and possibly more beneficial than a wage differential.
Jan 7, 2019
Report
Military and Civilian Pay Levels, Trends, and Recruit Quality
RAND researchers compared military and civilian pay for 2016, following up on comparisons for 2009 and 1999, and assessed how recruit quality changed as military pay rose relative to civilian pay after 1999.
Dec 3, 2018
Report
Supplemental Career Paths for Air Force Pilots: A Warrant Officer Component or an Aviation Technical Track?
This report documents analyses of two ways to supplement the traditional Air Force pilot career path to enhance force sustainment: a warrant officer component to fill pilot requirements or an aviation technical track for commissioned officers.
Aug 14, 2018
Draft
Exploring Voluntary Retirement Incentives for Teachers: Effects on Retention and Cost in Chicago Public Schools
Uses a dynamic model of teacher retention behavior to predict the number of Chicago Public Schools teachers willing to accept voluntary retirement incentive and retire.
May 22, 2018
Report
Capping Retired Pay for Senior Field Grade Officers: Force Management, Retention, and Cost Effects
This report considers the effects of capping retired pay for mid-grade military personnel so that only those in the highest grades and with the most years of service would receive the highest retired pay.
Mar 12, 2018
Report
An Assessment of the Military Survivor Benefit Plan
This report assesses the Survivor Benefit Plan in terms of participation and benefits, compares it with similar plans in public and private organizations, and considers the feasibility of having the plan provided by commercial sources.
Feb 26, 2018
Report
The Blended Retirement System: Retention Effects and Continuation Pay Cost Estimates for the Armed Services
This report assesses the effects of the Blended Retirement System on military retention and continuation pay cost for the Air Force, Army, Coast Guard, Marine Corps, and Navy and finds that retention can be sustained relative to the legacy system.
Aug 15, 2017
Report
The Role of Special and Incentive Pays in Retaining Military Mental Health Care Providers
Describes a methodology, based on RAND's dynamic retention model, for assessing how alternative special and incentive pay adjustments affect the retention of mental health care officers.
Mar 9, 2017
Report
Toward Efficient Military Retirement Accrual Charges
This report presents a theoretical model and empirical estimates explaining why each service's retirement accrual charge is inaccurate under the current system and how this could be fixed by service-specific accrual charges.
Feb 1, 2017
Report
An Enhanced Capability to Model How Compensation Policy Affects U.S. Department of Defense Civil Service Retention and Cost
Researchers extend RAND's dynamic retention model for Defense Department civil service workers, add costing capability, and simulate the effects of mandating workers to pay a larger share of contributions into the Federal Employees Retirement System.
Dec 6, 2016
Report
Workforce Downsizing and Restructuring in the Department of Defense: The Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment Program Versus Involuntary Separation
Assesses the cost-effectiveness for the U.S. Department of Defense of using incentives for voluntary separations, together with or instead of imposing involuntary separations, to reduce the size of its civilian workforce.
Oct 13, 2016
Report
Policies for Managing Reductions in Military End Strength: Using Incentive Pays to Draw Down the Force
A dynamic retention model determines appropriate voluntary separation pay levels to achieve drawdowns for multiple components and services, for enlisted personnel and officers, and for the steady state and the transition to it.
Oct 10, 2016
Report
Retention, Incentives, and DoD Experience Under the 40-Year Military Pay Table
In a multimethod analysis, RAND researchers assess whether the military should continue using its 40-year pay table to retain experienced personnel or whether such retention could be equally achieved with a 30-year pay table.
Aug 3, 2016
Report
Retaining U.S. Air Force Pilots When the Civilian Demand for Pilots Is Growing
Increases in major airline hiring could cause Air Force pilot shortfalls. The authors analyzed supply, compensation, and demand to estimate changes in civilian pilot pay and hiring and the level of aviator retention pay needed as a countermeasure.
Jul 12, 2016
Research Brief
Not All Changes Are Equal: Assessing How Different Pension Policies Can Impact Teacher Retention
RAND researchers developed a dynamic retention model to estimate and analyze the relationship between different retirement benefit policies and retention over the career of Chicago public school teachers.
May 2, 2016
Report
Retirement Benefits and Teacher Retention: A Structural Modeling Approach
The authors develop and estimate a stochastic dynamic programming model to analyze the relationship between compensation, including retirement benefits, and retention over the career of Chicago public school teachers.
May 2, 2016
Report
Reforming Military Retirement: Analysis in Support of the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission
Using the Dynamic Retention Model, this report evaluates the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission's proposed reforms to military compensation and retirement, especially their ability to sustain the current force size/shape.
Jul 17, 2015
Report
Toward Meaningful Military Compensation Reform: Research in Support of DoD's Review
Through analysis of many alternatives, develops two concepts for reforming the military compensation system, both of which retain positive aspects of the current system while addressing criticisms related to fairness and fiscal sustainability.
Nov 12, 2014
Report
How Do Federal Civilian Pay Freezes and Retirement Plan Changes Affect Employee Retention in the Department of Defense?
The dynamic retention model is used to provide an initial assessment of how compensation policies, including pay freezes, unpaid furloughs, and changes to civil service retirement, affect retention of federal civil service workers.
Nov 4, 2014
Report
The Federal Civil Service Workforce: Assessing the Effects on Retention of Pay Freezes, Unpaid Furloughs, and Other Federal-Employee Compensation Changes in the Department of Defense
Simulations based on the dynamic retention model are developed to assess how compensation policy, including pay freezes and unpaid furloughs, affects retention of federal civil service workers.
Oct 2, 2014
Report
Toward Improved Management of Officer Retention: A New Capability for Assessing Policy Options
This report documents efforts to implement a capability for the U.S. Department of Defense to assess alternative policies to enhance officer retention provides source code and foundations of a spreadsheet version of the model.
Jul 28, 2014
Report
Making the Reserve Retirement System Similar to the Active System: Retention and Cost Estimates
A proposal allowing vested Army reservists to receive military retirement benefits immediately upon retiring is analyzed for effects on the size and experience mix of the Army reserve and active components and on Army personnel costs.
Jun 4, 2014
Journal Article
Gone to War: Have Deployments Increased Divorces?
In this paper, we use longitudinal individual-level administrative data from 1999 to 2008 and find that an additional month in deployment increases the divorce hazard of military families, with females being more affected.
2014
Report
A New Tool for Assessing Workforce Management Policies Over Time: Extending the Dynamic Retention Model
Extends the capability of the dynamic retention model, which supports decisionmaking about workforce management policy, to allow simulations of the effects of alternative policies both in the steady state and in the transition to the steady state.
Aug 26, 2013
Report
A Policy Analysis of Reserve Retirement Reform
This report analyzes reform of the reserve retirement system, discusses the goals and obstacles to reform, and provides a quantitative assessment of the reserve retention and cost effects of possible reform proposals.
Jan 30, 2013
Report
Should the Increase in Military Pay Be Slowed?
Assembles the latest available data on recruiting, retention, and military versus civilian pay, and recommends a slower increase in military pay. Discusses implementation strategies if the Defense Department moves forward with limited pay increases.
Jul 30, 2012
Research Brief
Slowing the Increase in Military Pay
Examines the possibility for the Department of Defense to save money on military pay while sustaining a high-quality force.
Jul 30, 2012
Report
Reserve Participation and Cost Under a New Approach to Reserve Compensation
Presents officer and enlisted retention and cost effects of a new approach to reserve compensation proposed by the 11th QRMC. The approach is viable, enhances force management, costs less, but requires supplemental pay to sustain retention.
Jun 28, 2012
Testimony
Insights from Early RAND Research on Deployment: Effects on U.S. Service Members and Their Families
Testimony presented before the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee on July 27, 2011.
Jul 27, 2011
Report
Analysis and Recommendations on the Company-Grade Officer Shortfall in the Reserve Components of the U.S. Army
The U.S. Army National Guard and Reserve have more lieutenants but fewer captains than they are authorized to have. This monograph looks at the company-grade officer shortfall, explores solutions, and makes recommendations.
Jun 16, 2011
Report
Effects of Bonuses on Active Component Reenlistment Versus Prior Service Enlistment in the Selected Reserve
Examines how active component (AC) and reserve component (RC) bonuses interact -- that is, the extent to which RC enlistment bonuses draw service members away from the AC, and AC bonuses reduce prior service enlistment in the Selected Reserve.
Jun 2, 2011
Report
How Much Does Military Spending Add to Hawaii's Economy?
This report assesses the relationship between defense spending in Hawaii and the levels of output, employment, and earnings in Hawaii's economy.
Jun 1, 2011
Report
How Is Deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan Affecting U.S. Service Members and Their Families? An Overview of Early RAND Research on the Topic
Brings together and summarizes the findings of six RAND studies that laid the groundwork for ongoing research on how deployment to Iraq and Afghanistan has affected service members and their families.
May 13, 2011
Research Brief
Do Bonuses Affect Enlistment and Reenlistment?
Congress has questioned the scope and efficacy of enlistment and reenlistment bonuses, but Army high-quality recruiting would have been lower without them; they are more cost-effective than pay but less so than recruiters as a way to gain recruits.
Jun 9, 2010
Report
Cash Incentives and Military Enlistment, Attrition, and Reenlistment
The Department of Defense budget for enlistment and reenlistment bonuses increased greatly over the past decade, leading some to ask whether bonuses were the most cost-effective way to increase the supply of personnel to the armed forces.
May 14, 2010
Testimony
The Role of Incentive Pays in Military Compensation
Testimony presented before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Personnel on April 28, 2010.
Apr 26, 2010
Research Brief
Military Reenlistment and Deployment During the War on Terrorism
Theoretical models and survey and administrative data show that deployment during the war on terrorism has had positive or no effects on military reenlistment but a negative effect for Army personnel deployed for a high cumulative number of months.
Oct 1, 2009
Report
How Have Deployments During the War on Terrorism Affected Reenlistment?
This research sought to understand how recent deployments have affected reenlistment by examining trends in deployments and reenlistments, developing a theoretical model, and conducting an econometric analysis of survey and administrative data.
Sep 17, 2009
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008
The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U.S. president; other pieces discuss education and health in China and India, health policy models, the U.S. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.S. Army, and political reform in the Arab world.
Dec 14, 2008
Report
Assessing Compensation Reform: Research in Support of the 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation
To inform the 10th Quadrennial Review of Military Compensation, this monograph presents the results of estimation and simulations of a model designed to assess the U.S. military's current retirement-benefit system and several policy alternatives.
Oct 27, 2008
Research Brief
Is the United States Losing Its Edge in Science and Technology?
This research brief examines the claim that the United States is losing its position as a global leader in science and technology and offers policy recommendations to address such concerns.
May 28, 2008
Report
U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology
Examines claims that the United States is losing its position as a global leader in science and technology and offers policy recommendations to address such concerns.
May 7, 2008
Report
Perspectives on U.S. Competitiveness in Science and Technology
Is the United States in danger of losing its competitive edge in science and technology? The papers presented in these proceedings provide a partial survey of the facts, challenges, and questions posed by the potential erosion of U.S. S and T capability.
Aug 20, 2007
Research Brief
Deployment, Stress, and Intention to Stay in the Military
This research brief summarizes a multidisciplinary study to provide insight into the effect of deployment on military personnel and permit several implications to be drawn for policy.
Jan 13, 2006
Report
How Deployments Affect Service Members
Offers insights into the challenges faced by active-duty service members deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan, the resiliency they and their families have shown in coping with these challenges, and the adequacy of defense manpower policy in assisting members and families.
2006
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 1, Spring 2006
Addresses a set of shortfalls in U.S. performance in Iraq and identifies options for improvement, particularly with respect to sustaining army forces, promoting reenlistments, and rebuilding Iraqi security.
2006
Report
Reserve Retirement Reform: A Viewpoint on Recent Congressional Proposals
Provides input regarding alternativec ompensation proposals for the reserve components and the broader issues surrounding reserve retirement reform.
2006
Report
Placing a Value on the Health Care Benefit for Active-Duty Personnel
Using conservative estimates, the authors find that the value of military health care benefits can be quite considerable, ranging from hundreds of dollars per year for healthy single members to thousands of dollars for military families.
Oct 3, 2005
Testimony
Deployment, Retention, and Compensation
Testimony presented to the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Total Force on March 24, 2004.
Dec 21, 2004
Report
Looking to the Future: What Does Transformation Mean for Military Manpower and Personnel Policy?
Discusses how manpower and personnel policies can be used to produce the changes in military culture needed for transformation.
Dec 20, 2004
Report
Attracting the Best: How the Military Competes for Information Technology Personnel
This report focuses on the factors affecting the supply of information technology (IT) personnel to the active duty enlisted force, and the findings point to the conclusion that the IT training opportunities offered by the military can help secure th
Aug 15, 2004
Research Brief
Can the Military Successfully Meet the Demand for Information Technology Personnel?
Despite concerns that the military might face a shortage of information technology (IT) personnel within the active duty enlisted force, the services have been successful in attracting and keeping IT personnel. IT training appears to play a critical ...
2004
Research Brief
The Employment and Earnings of Military Wives
Military spouses may encounter unique obstacles to pursuing work, including the rigid and unpredictable demands on the military member's time as well as frequent reassignments and changes of residence.
2004
Research Brief
Have Improved Resources Increased Military Recruiting and Retention?
This research brief assesses the effects of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2000 and reviews the context of military recruiting and retention in recent years.
2004
Research Brief
New Measure of Military Personnel Quality Reveals that Services Retain Higher-Quality Personnel
To provide a clearer picture of how the quality of military personnel is revealed over time, RAND Corporation researchers implemented a new, broader measure of quality that incorporates information from the military promotion system.
2004
Research Brief
Perstempo: Does It Help or Hinder Reenlistment?
This research brief summarizes a study that examined the relationship between reenlistment and personnel tempo (a measurement of tours of duty that station a service member away from home longer than 30 days or in a hostile environment).
2004
Periodical
RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 3, Fall 2004
Proposes ways to transform the U.S. military's personnel and compensation systems; also examines the influence of family socioeconomic background on student educational achievement and lessons of the Green Revolution for the "Gene Revolution."
2004
Report
New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking
Addresses the new challenges for defense policy in a world transformed by the end of the Cold War and then the war on terrorism, and sketches new analytic techniques for framing particular defense issues.
2003
Report
Learning About Quality: How the Quality of Military Personnel Is Revealed Over Time
Extends the military services' customary definition of quality -- high school diploma graduate and scoring in the upper half on the Armed Forces Qualification Test -- to include performance as indicated by speed of promotion during the first term.
2003
Research Brief
How Does Deployment Affect Retention of Military Personnel?
RAND researchers analyzed personnel records from the 1990s to determine whether deployments had an effect on the reenlistment of enlisted personnel and the retention of officer personnel.
2003
Report
Military Recruiting and Retention After the Fiscal Year 2000 Military Pay Legislation
Relevant to the annual report to Congress by the Department of Defense mandated by the FY00 National Defense Authorization Act, this document presents estimates of the predicted effects of the act's basic pay increases for FY00 and FY01 and provides rich
May 1, 2002
Report
A Look at Cash Compensation for Active-Duty Military Personnel
A Look at Cash Compensation for Active-Duty Military Personnel
Apr 29, 2002
Report
Married to the Military: The Employment and Earnings of Military Wives Compared with Those of Civilian Wives
Examines differences between military and civilian wives' contribution to family income.
Apr 10, 2002
Report
Serving Away From Home: How Deployments Influence Reenlistment
Analyzes how past deployments affect reenlistment.
Apr 1, 2002
Report
Air Force Compensation: Considering Some Options for Change
The authors describe Air Force recruitment and retention, then examine the current pay system and suggest how it could be strengthened. Finally, they assess two pay concepts and consider ways to analyze their effects and cost-effectiveness.
2002
Report
The Accrual Method for Funding Military Retirement: Assessment and Recommended Changes
Prior to 1984, military personnel force managers had little incentive to control retirement budgets and payments, which equaled $16 billion in 1984, since any decisions made would not be reflected in budgets for 20 or more years.
2001
Report
An Analysis of Pay for Enlisted Personnel
This documented briefing addresses the questions of whether military compensation is adequate to enable the military to meet their manpower requirements now and in the future and whether action to change military compensation is required now.
2001
Report
Keeping Military Pay Competitive: The Outlook for Civilian Wage Growth and Its Consequences
To help the military attract and keep high-quality personnel, Congress voted in fiscal year 2000 for significant increases in military pay.
2001
Research Brief
Military Compensation: Trends and Policy Options
Since 1993, overall military pay has declined relative to civilian pay, by 6.5 percent for enlistees and by 10 percent for officers.
2000
Testimony
Military Compensation: Testimony Presented to the Senate Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Personnel
Testimony presented to the Subcommittee on Personnel, Senate Armed Services Committee, March 1999.
1999
Report
Military Compensation: Trends and Policy Options
Military Compensation: Trends and Policy Options
1999
Report
Does Perstempo Hurt Reenlistment? The Effect of Long or Hostile Perstempo on Reenlistment
This report focuses on a the effect of recent personnel tempo, or perstempo, on reenlistment.
1998
Report
The New Fiscal Federalism and the Social Safety Net: A View from California
These essays review the implications of the new fiscal federalism for the states, particularly California, from the perspective of intergovernmental relations, fiscal impact, program administration, and the consequences for the public.
1996
Report
Military Pay Gaps and Caps
Investigates the military/civilian pay gap and its implications for capping military pay increases. The pay gap is defined as the percent difference in military versus civilian pay growth as measured from a given starting point.
1994
Research Brief
Is There a Gap Between Military and Civilian Pay?
Paradoxically, this 12 percent gap was not accompanied by recruiting or retention problems even though it was greater than the wage gap of the late 1970s — a period known for recruiting and retention problems.
1994
Report
Strengthening Russia's labor policy : a perspective from the U.S.
Strengthening Russia's labor policy : a perspective from the U.S.
1994
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: Third Year Evaluation
Describes the PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration and the plan that has been developed to evaluate it.
1993
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: Appendices to Third Year Evaluation
This report contains the appendices of RAND/MR-310-P&R, which describes the PACER SHARE Demonstration Project and the plan that has been developed to evaluate it.
Jan 1, 1993
Report
Satisfaction and Dissatisfaction in Institutional Practice: Results from a Survey of U.S. Military Physicians
Efforts to improve satisfaction may enhance recruitment and retention of military physicians.
1993
Report
A Civilian Wage Index for Defense Manpower
Current estimates comparing wage growth in the military and civilian sectors suggest that military basic pay grew 11.8 percent slower than civilian wages from fiscal 1982 to 1991. Yet over the same period recruit quality and retention showed ...
1992
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: Second-Year Evaluation
This report describes the PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration and the plan that has been developed to evaluate it.
1992
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: Appendices to Second-Year Evaluation
Contains appendixes of R-4127, which describes the PACER SHARE demonstration project and the plan that has been developed to evaluate it.
1991
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: Appendices to First-Year Evaluation
Contains the appendices of R-3943-FMP, which describes the PACER SHARE Demonstration Project, the plan that has been developed to evaluate it, and presents the first-year results.
1991
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration: First-Year Evaluation
This report describes the PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration, the plan that has been developed to evaluate it, and presents statistical results concerning the effects of the demonstration through its first year.
1991
Report
Appendices to PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration Baseline Evaluation
Contains supplemental materials to R-3753, which describes the PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration and the plan that has been developed to evaluate it.
1990
Report
PACER SHARE Productivity and Personnel Management Demonstration Baseline Evaluation
PACER SHARE is a five-year demonstration whose purpose is to determine whether several changes in federal civil service practices will improve organizational productivity, flexibility, and quality of worklife while at least sustaining (or improving)...
1990
Report
Serving Her Country: An Analysis of Women's Enlistment
This report examines one aspect of women's military service — the factors affecting the flow of new recruits.
1990
Report
Predicting Enlistment for Recruiting Market Segments
This Note examines the relationship between geodemographic information and individual (micro) models of enlistment decisionmaking.
1989
Report
Who Stays, Who Leaves? Attrition Among First-Term Enlistees
This Note, reprinted from Armed Forces and Society, v. 15, no. 3, Spring 1989, identifies the determinants of attrition behavior of high school students and graduates -- the population groups most significant for recruiting today's higher-quality force.
1989
Report
Developing an Initial Skill Training Database: Rationale and Content
Suggests training and performance data that the Training and Performance Data Center (TPDC) should collect in an ideal training database.
1988
Report
Military Enlistment and Attrition: An Analysis of Decision Reversal
This report presents a theoretical discussion and empirical analysis of enlistment and first-term attrition.
1987
Report
Educational Expectations and Enlistment Decisions
This report focuses on the role of educational expectations in the enlistment decisions of young men who are high school seniors or non-student, high school graduates.
1986
Research Brief
Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior
This research brief describes RAND's analysis of the effects of reenlistment bonuses on retention rates in the U.S. armed forces. RAND studied continuation rate data from the Defense Manpower Data Center for mid-FY1976 through FY1981.
1986
Research Brief
Enlistment Decisions of Young Men
This research brief summarizes analysis contained in the RAND Corporation report, "Enlistment Decisions of Young Men" (R-3238-MIL).
1985
Report
Enlistment Decisions of Young Men
This study analyzes factors in the enlistment decisions of two segments of the recruiting market: high school seniors, and nonstudent high school graduates.
1985
Report
Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior
Considers three outcomes for military personnel nearing a reenlistment decision point — reenlist, extend, or leave — and investigates whether bonuses increase the proportion of personnel staying in service (the retention rate), and ...
1985
Report
Reenlistment Bonuses and Retention Behavior: Executive Summary
This report, an executive summary of RAND Report R-3199-MIL, presents a nontechnical discussion of the most policy-relevant findings of research on the effects of bonuses on retention behavior.
1985
Report
Active Enlisted Supply: Prospects and Policy Options
The authors show how the forces shaping enlisted supply in the 1980s will affect the services' abilities to attract and retain the numbers and types of individuals they want.
1984
Report
The AFEES-NLS Database: A Choice-Based Sample for Studying Enlistment and Post-Enlistment Outcomes
Describes prospective research and policy applications of a newly constructed database intended for the analysis of enlistment decisionmaking and post-enlistment outcomes.
1983
Report
The Analysis of Military Manpower Issues
This paper provides an introductory description of the military manpower system and a context for discussion of changes to that system.
1981
Report
Does Migration Increase Wage Rates? : An Analysis of Alternative Techniques for Measuring Wage Gains to Migration
To estimate the wage gains to migration, migrants' post-migration wages should be compared with what the migrants would have earned had they not moved (their "counterfactual" wages), and not with the wages of apparently similar nonmigrants.
1981
Report
British Industrial Response to the Peak-Load Pricing of Electricity
This examination of customer responsiveness to peak-load, or time-of-use (TOU), electricity tariffs focuses on responses by individual industrial customers in England and Wales and relies on in-person interviews with representatives of firms.
1980
Report
AFDC-Unemployed fathers cross-state data base, 1975 : definition of variables, listing of data, and documentation of sources
Documents state-level data on labor market, welfare system, and aggregate demographic variables relevant to the study of the Aid to Families with Dependent Children-Unemployed Fathers program. The data collected in this Note can be added to existing ...
1979
Report
The AFDC-Unemployed Fathers Program and Welfare Reform
The AFDC-unemployed fathers (UF) program serves poor husband-and-wife families with children in which the husband is unemployed.
1979
Report
An introduction to estimation with choice-based sample data
Choice-based sampling selects a population conditional on the choices it has made. By allowing the sampling rate to be dependent on choice, certain outcomes can be sampled at higher or lower rates than occurring in the population, and can assure obta...
1979
Report
The potential cost savings of hospitals that teach
Discusses propositions relevant to assessing the relationship between teaching and hospital costs. A proper measure of hospital costs will include physicians' fees for services. A number of cost studies do not include house staff charges and therefo...
1979
Report
Welfare research and experimentation: testimony before the Subcommittee on Public Assistance of the Senate Finance Committee
In Sec. 1 of this compilation, Cogan includes new evidence on work disincentives of a negative income tax (NIT). In Sec. 2, Cogan replies to issues raised in critical reviews of this testimony and concluded that it is important to distinguish betwee...
1979
Report
Family Participation in the AFDC-Unemployed Fathers Program
The family's decision to participate in AFDC-UF is described by a one-period model of utility maximization.
1978
Report
Multiple Welfare Benefits in New York City
The first study measuring total cash income and in-kind benefits actually received on a case-by-case basis by New York City families on Aid to Families with Dependent Children (AFDC).
1976
Report
Regional Labor Supply Response to Negative Income Tax Programs.
Regional Labor Supply Response to Negative Income Tax Programs.
1976
Report
Teaching and Hospital Costs: The Case of Radiology.
Investigates production and cost effects of teaching in radiology departments. Models show that cost effects are determined by salaries and fees paid to students and physicians, the levels of student inputs in production, and productivity of student...
1976
Report
Estimating the Effects of Teaching on the Costs of Inpatient Care: The Case of Radiology Treatments.
Estimating the Effects of Teaching on the Costs of Inpatient Care: The Case of Radiology Treatments.
1975
Report
Unemployment Patterns Among Individuals.
Unemployment Patterns Among Individuals.
1975
Report
The Social Optimality of Production by Nonprofit Institutions: Comment
Analyzes the question of whether nonprofit firms, such as hospitals, necessarily have the "bias against producing low-quality products" concluded by Newhouse in his pathbreaking Toward a Theory of Nonprofit Institutions (P-4022, January 1969).
1974
Report
Human Investment Decisions, Labor Market Choice, and Unemployment.
This paper extends human investment analysis to a world in which unemployment arises stochastically. The model presented emphasizes that labor market choice, job search strategy, and skill investment should be viewed as simultaneous decisions by the...
1973