Jan 7, 2021
This report provides the foundation for developing an analytic capability for determining the efficient amount of special and incentive (S&I) pay for U.S. Air Force career enlisted aviators (CEAs). The authors documented contextual information about CEAs, examined the retention profiles of CEAs and S&I pays available, and extended RAND's Dynamic Retention Model to create a version that models CEA retention profiles.
Background analysis reveals that the career trajectories and retention profiles of certain CEAs vary across the different Air Force Specialty Codes (AFSCs). These differences in retention and compensation suggest that different retention models are needed for certain subgroups of CEAs.
The authors extended RAND's Dynamic Retention Model to model retention profiles of In-Flight Refueling, Aircraft Loadmasters, and Airborne Mission Systems Operators, three CEA categories that share similar retention profiles and make up more than half of the CEA population among the cohorts included in this study. To demonstrate how this type of model can be used to model retention behavior in response to changes in compensation, the authors conducted a simulation in which basic pay increased by 5 percent. Future work will further extend the retention models to include other CEA AFSCs and S&I pays, and these will then be used to conduct simulations to estimate the efficient amount of S&I pays for Air Force CEAs.
Background on Career Enlisted Aviators
Data and Retention Profiles
Dynamic Retention Model Overview, Estimates and Fit
Conclusion and Next Steps
Additional Background on Career Enlisted Aviators
Historical Selective Reenlistment Bonuses for CEAs