Toward Theory for Dissuasion (or Deterrence) by Denial

Using Simple Cognitive Models of the Adversary to Inform Strategy

by Paul K. Davis

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This Working Paper grew out a conference paper presented at the Munk School of the University of Toronto, October 18-20, 2013. The conference, Deterrence by Denial: Theory, Practice, and Empiricism, was co-organized by the Munk School of Global Affairs and the Center for Security Studies, ETH Zurich. It included a number of international scholars from a broad range of university and research institutions. This Working Paper extends the author's conference paper and is intended to invite informal peer review before it is completed it at a later date.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    A Simple Model for Cases of Limited Rationality

  • Chapter Three

    Is the Defense Worth the Candle?

  • Chapter Four

    Bibliography

This research was conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD). NSRD conducts research and analysis on defense and national security topics for the U.S. and allied defense, foreign policy, homeland security, and intelligence communities and foundations and other non-governmental organizations that support defense and national security analysis.

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