Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda

Paul K. Davis

Expert InsightsPublished Jul 16, 2010

Simple, conceptual models can be used to help guide thinking about how to deter or to otherwise influence potential, actual, or disengaging terrorists and the many people who support their organizations directly or indirectly. Deterring terrorism is best approached as part of a broad effort to influence all elements of a terrorist system, and simple, conceptual models of decisionmaking can help in understanding how to affect others' behavior. The paper lays out a theory of how to use influence (including deterrence) to affect elements of a terrorist system, touching on root causes, individual motivation, public support, and likely factors in the decisionmaking of terrorist organizations.

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Document Details

  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Web Only
  • Year: 2010
  • Pages: 48
  • Document Number: OP-296-OSD

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Davis, Paul K., Simple Models to Explore Deterrence and More General Influence in the War with al-Qaeda. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2010. https://www.rand.org/pubs/occasional_papers/OP296.html.
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