A Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD)

Methodology and User’s Manual

by Paul Dreyer, Paul K. Davis

Download

Download eBook for Free

Full Document

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 3.1 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Summary Only

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 0.1 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

Purchase

Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback96 pages $20.00 $16.00 20% Web Discount

This report documents the underlying methodology of RAND’s Portfolio-Analysis Tool for Missile Defense (PAT-MD), an analytic tool developed to facilitate high-level discussion of program tradeoffs and adjustments in the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). PAT-MD provides summary portfolio-style characterizations of alternative investment options, including projected capabilities in different missions, the balance of emphasis across missions, the managing of risks, and economic considerations such as relative cost-effectiveness. PAT-MD and a companion tool, RAND’s Capabilities Analysis Model for Missile Defense (CAMMD), make it possible to “zoom” to higher levels of detail in order to understand the basis of high-level characterizations and how they would change if assumptions or priorities were changed. PAT-MD provides five scoring and aggregation methods that correspond mathematically to alternative aggregation functions. The appropriate method — e.g., simple linear weighted sums or nonlinear methods that enforce the concept that a system with several critical components will fail if any of its critical components fail — depends on the analysis and context. Significantly, PAT-MD also provides a straightforward way to test sensitivity to goals and thresholds in order to ensure that results are not unduly sensitive to arbitrary assumptions. The report also serves as a user’s guide to PAT-MD.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    Introduction

  • Chapter Two

    Overview of PAT-MD

  • Chapter Three

    PAT-MD Input Sheets

  • Chapter Four

    PAT-MD Output Sheets

  • Chapter Five

    Details of the Methodology

  • Chapter Six

    Concluding Observations

  • Appendix A

    Comparison of Features of PAT-MD and DynaRank

  • Appendix B

    Building a Portfolio View from the PAT-MD Template

The research described in this report was prepared for the Missile Defense Agency. The research was conducted in the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center supported by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the unified commands, and the defense agencies.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation technical report series. RAND technical reports may include research findings on a specific topic that is limited in scope or intended for a narrow audience; present discussions of the methodology employed in research; provide literature reviews, survey instruments, modeling exercises, guidelines for practitioners and research professionals, and supporting documentation; or deliver preliminary findings. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure that they meet high standards for research quality and objectivity.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.