Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion

Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

Paul K. Davis, Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, David Manheim

ResearchPublished Feb 1, 2016

An element of thwarting terrorist attacks is observing suspicious individuals over time with such diverse means as scanners and other devices, travel records, behavioral observations, and intelligence sources. Such observations provide data that are often both complex and "soft" — i.e., qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, or ambiguous — and also contradictory or even deceptive. Analysts face the challenge of heterogeneous information fusion — that is, combining such data to form a realistic assessment of threat. This report presents research on various heterogeneous information fusion methods and describes a research prototype system for fusing uncertainty-sensitive heterogeneous information. The context is counterterrorism, for both military and civilian applications, but the ideas are also applicable in intelligence and law enforcement.

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Davis, Paul K., Walter L. Perry, John S. Hollywood, and David Manheim, Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2016. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR1200.html.
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This research was sponsored by the Office of Naval Research and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Center of the RAND National Defense Research Institute, a federally funded research and development center sponsored by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, the Unified Combatant Commands, the Navy, the Marine Corps, the defense agencies, and the defense Intelligence Community.

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