John S. Hollywood

Contact Information

Senior Operations Researcher; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in operations research, MIT; B.S. in applied mathematics, MIT

Overview

John S. Hollywood is a senior operations researcher at the RAND Corporation and a professor of policy analysis at Pardee RAND Graduate School. He conducts decision science and systems engineering-related research in the areas of criminal justice, homeland security, and information technology. He recently served as the director of the NLECTC Information and Geospatial Technologies Center, which provided strategic planning, technology research and assessment, liaison and outreach support on information technology and analytics for the National Institute of Justice. He serves as a senior scientist to two other NLECTC Centers, one on characterizing criminal justice technology needs and one providing technology support to small, rural, tribal and border agencies. Other recent projects include leading an expert panel on criminal justice technologies for the Bureau of Justice Assistance; co-leading a multi-year evaluation of predictive policing experiments; characterizing recent US terror plots and how they have been foiled; identifying and characterizing scientific breakthroughs as evidenced in patent applications; developing tools to predict areas at risk of increased crime using criminal incident and suspicious activity data; and development of new methods for fusing disparate reports about potential terrorist threats. He is a recognized expert on predictive policing and criminal justice technology and is commonly interviewed on these topics. He has written opinion pieces on best practices in counterterrorism and law enforcement technology for CNN, the Charlotte Observer, Crane's Chicago Business, Government Technology, and ORMS Today.

Research Focus

Pardee RAND Graduate School Courses

Recent Projects

Priority Criminal Justice Needs Initiative
Justice Innovation Center for Small, Rural, Tribal and Border Agencies
Information and Geospatial Technologies Center
Criminal Justice Technology Forecasting Group

Selected Publications

John S. Hollywood, John Boon, Richard Silberglitt, Brian Chow, Brian A. Jackson, High Priority Information Technology Needs for Law Enforcement, RAND (RR-737-NIJ), 2015

John S. Hollywood, Dulani Woods, Richard Silberglitt, Brian A. Jackson, Using Future Internet Technologies to Strengthen Criminal Justice, RAND (RR-928-NIJ), 2015

Walter L. Perry, Brian McInnis, Carter C. Price, John S. Hollywood, Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations, RAND (RR-233-NIJ), 2013

John S. Hollywood, Kevin J. Strom, Mark W. Pope, "Using 9-1-1 Calls for Service to Identify Potential Instances of Terrorist Surveillance," The Police Chief, 75(10):160-165, 2008

Daniel R. Gonzales, John S. Hollywood, Jerry Sollinger, James McFadden, John DeJarnette, Sarah Harting, Donald Temple, Networked Forces in Stability Operations: 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq, RAND (MG-593-OSD), 2007

John S. Hollywood, "An Approximate Planning Model for Distributed Computing Networks," Naval Research Logistics, 52(6):590-605, 2005

John S. Hollywood, Kenneth N. McKay, "An Adaptive Scheduling Framework for Heterogeneous Computer Networks," Control Engineering Principles, 12:725-734, 2004

John S. Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth N. McKay, John Boon, Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior, RAND (MG-126-RC), 2004

Honors & Awards

Karl Taylor Compton Prize, Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Commentary

CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing
Predictive policing — the use of computer models to identify areas or people at greater risk of being involved in a serious crime — is yielding results for police. How authorities plan to respond to the data is key.
Sep 21, 2016 Crain's Chicago Business
Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball
Predictive policing is not an end-all solution, but rather a tool that must be used in concert with other policing resources as part of a broader anti-crime effort. Used properly, predictive policing can predict the risk of future events, but not the events themselves.
Nov 15, 2013 Government Technology
Blog
Can You Help Stop Terror Plots?
Of the plots foiled in the last 10 years on U.S. soil, the would-be terrorists came from many different ethnic groups. We know of no cases where ethnic profiling helped stop a terrorist plot, write John Hollywood and Kevin J. Strom.
May 10, 2011 CNN
Blog
Alert Public and Cops Foiled the Most Terrorism Schemes
The recent foiled plot by a naturalized citizen to bomb Washington-area metro stations has national counterterrorism officials warning that the U.S. faces not only risks from abroad, but also homegrown terrorism, write John S. Hollywood and Kevin J. Strom.
Nov 24, 2010 The Charlotte Observer

Publications

Research Brief
Emerging Technology Trends and Their Impact on Criminal Justice
The Criminal Justice Technology Forecasting Group discussed near-term effects that major societal trends could have on criminal justice and identified potential responses. This brief summarizes a report of the results of the group's meetings.
Mar 26, 2018
Report
Report
Addressing Emerging Trends to Support the Future of Criminal Justice: Findings of the Criminal Justice Technology Forecasting Group
The Criminal Justice Technology Forecasting Group deliberated on the effects that major societal trends could have on criminal justice in the near future and identified potential responses. This report captures the results of the group's meetings.
Mar 19, 2018
Journal Article
Journal Article
Managing Officer Behavioural Risk Using Early Intervention Systems: Addressing System Design Challenges for Law Enforcement and Corrections Environments
The goal of EIS is to provide the opportunity to identify and intervene for officers that are showing signs of problematic behaviour or performance. In the project described here, we demonstrated expansion of the EIS concept to a corrections context.
Nov 7, 2017
Report
Fostering Innovation in U.S. Law Enforcement: Identifying High-Priority Technology and Other Needs for Improving Law Enforcement Operations and Outcomes
Presents the results a 2016 workshop in which a panel of law enforcement experts identifies high-priority needs for innovation in law enforcement, covering advances in technology, policy, and practice.
Aug 31, 2017
Report
Report
The Justice Innovation Center: Identifying the Needs and Challenges of Criminal Justice Agencies in Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Areas
The Justice Innovation Center provides information on technology needs, priorities, and solutions for small, rural, tribal, and border criminal justice agencies. This report summarizes the center's first year of efforts.
Nov 16, 2016
Report
Using Future Broadband Communications Technologies to Strengthen Law Enforcement
This report describes the finding of an expert panel convened in September 2015 to discuss how law enforcement can best leverage future communications capabilities anticipated to be fielded over the next 10 to 15 years.
Sep 26, 2016
Report
Fostering Innovation in the U.S. Court System: Identifying High-Priority Technology and Other Needs for Improving Court Operations and Outcomes
The U.S. courts sector is challenged by high caseloads, resource constraints, and other trends, and this report seeks to frame an innovation agenda by identifying and prioritizing potential improvements in technology, policy, and practice.
May 10, 2016
Draft
Draft
Terrorist Plots Against the United States: What We Have Really Faced, and How We Might Best Defend Against It
Describes the results of an analysis of 150 completed and foiled terrorist plots against the United States from 1995 to 2012 to better understand the true nature of the terrorist threat faced by the United States.
Mar 8, 2016
Report
Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence
Presents research on methods for heterogeneous information fusion -- combining data that are qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, ambiguous, contradictory, and even deceptive, in order to form a realistic assessment of threat in a counterterrorism context.
Feb 1, 2016
Journal Article
Journal Article
Predictions Put Into Practice: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Chicago's Predictive Policing Pilot
In order to better understand the effects of an individual-focused predictive policing program in the field, this study analyzes a pilot program implemented in Chicago in 2013 aimed at reducing gun violence.
2016
Journal Article
Journal Article
Using Causal Models in Heterogeneous Information Fusion to Detect Terrorists
We describe basic research that uses a causal, uncertainty-sensitive computational model rooted in qualitative social science to fuse disparate pieces of threat information.
Dec 14, 2015
Draft
Draft
Causal Models and Exploratory Analysis in Heterogeneous Information Fusion for Detecting Potential Terrorists
Describes research fusing heterogeneous information in an effort eventually to detect terrorists, reduce false alarms, and exonerate those falsely identified.
Nov 17, 2015
Report
Improving Information-Sharing Across Law Enforcement: Why Can't We Know?
This report addresses ways to increase information-sharing among law enforcement's records management systems, computer-aided dispatch systems, and other key regional, state, and federal information repositories.
Sep 4, 2015
Report
Using Future Internet Technologies to Strengthen Criminal Justice
This report discusses the technologies, needs, and overarching themes that were discussed during a RAND-conducted expert panel on the criminal justice community's need to take advantage of (and mitigate threats from) emerging web technologies.
Aug 17, 2015
Report
Visions of Law Enforcement Technology in the Period 2024-2034: Report of the Law Enforcement Futuring Workshop
Describes the results of a July 2014 workshop in which a diverse group of law enforcement practitioners explored future visions of law enforcement and identified and prioritized needs in technology, policy, and practice based on those visions.
Mar 16, 2015
Report
High-Priority Information Technology Needs for Law Enforcement
This study reports on strategic planning activities undertaken to support the National Institute of Justice in the area of information technology, collecting and analyzing data on law enforcement needs, and identifying potential solutions.
Jan 19, 2015
Report
Fostering Innovation in Community and Institutional Corrections: Identifying High-Priority Technology and Other Needs for the U.S. Corrections Sector
The U.S. corrections enterprise is challenged by a variety of demographic, societal, and fiscal trends, and this report seeks to frame an innovation agenda by identifying and prioritizing potential improvements in technology, policy, and practice.
Jan 6, 2015
Report
Police Department Investments in Information Technology Systems: Challenges Assessing Their Payoff
As police departments and other public service providers manage reduced budgets, RAND researchers explored the rationale and evidence supporting the idea that IT investments can increase efficiency in policing, and do so cost-effectively.
Sep 25, 2014
Report
Report
Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment
This report documents an assessment of a predictive policing effort that was conducted to evaluate the crime reduction effects of policing guided by statistical predictions.
Jul 1, 2014
Report
Report
Evaluation of National Institute of Justice–Funded Geospatial Software Tools: Technical and Utility Assessments to Improve Tool Development, Dissemination, and Usage
A geospatial software tool-evaluation study assessed 14 recent tool developments funded by the National Institute of Justice. The study integrates input from tool developers and tool users with RAND's independent tool assessments.
Apr 3, 2014
Research Brief
Predicting Suicide Attacks: Characteristics of Bombings in Israel
This brief describes an assessment of how geospatial and sociocultural characteristics may help predict the timing and targets of terrorist attacks.
Nov 7, 2013
Research Brief
Predictive Policing: Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement
Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to prevent crime or solve past crimes. A RAND study assessed some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches, offering recommendations for police and developers.
Oct 14, 2013
Report
Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations
Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to help prevent crime, solve past crimes, or identify potential offenders and victims. This guide provides assessments of some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches.
Sep 25, 2013
Report
Using EPIC to Find Conflicts, Inconsistencies, and Gaps in Department of Defense Policies
The authors present a framework and methodology to identify both the roles and responsibilities of those implementing Department of Defense policies and potential conflicts, ambiguities, gaps, inconsistencies, and redundancies in those policies.
Jun 20, 2013
Report
Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets
Analysis of data on suicide attacks in Israel suggest that assessing sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors in addition to the geospatial enhances the ability to predict future suicide attack targets.
Feb 18, 2013
Report
Keeping Law Enforcement Connected: Information Technology Needs from State and Local Agencies
RAND researchers interviewed an extensive sample group to assess criminal justice technology priorities at the state and local levels, as well as the means by which agencies at those levels commonly receive information on technology.
Dec 5, 2012
Report
Report
The Universal Core Information Exchange Framework: Assessing Its Implications for Acquisition Programs
Universal Core (UCore) 2.0 is a DoD and intelligence community information exchange framework. This report reviews UCore pilot programs and identifies issues to be addressed before UCore implementation is mandated for DoD programs.
Jun 1, 2011
Journal Article
Journal Article
Building on Clues: Examining Successes and Failures in Detecting U.S. Terrorist Plots, 1999-2009
This report examines open-source material on 86 foiled and executed terrorist plots against U.S. targets from 1999 to 2009 to determine the types of information and activities that led to (or could have led to) their discovery.
Oct 1, 2010
Report
Report
Navy/OSD Collaborative Review of Acquisition Policy for DoD C3I and Weapon Programs
This briefing reviews current U.S. Department of Defense acquisition and requirement policy for ensuring interoperability and information assurance of command, control, communication, intelligence, and weapon systems.
Nov 12, 2007
Report
Report
Networked Forces in Stability Operations: 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq
Compares three Army units that conducted stability operations in the same area in Iraq's northern provinces between 2003 and 2005: the 101st Airborne Division (ABD), the 3/2 Stryker brigade combat team (SBCT), and the 1/25 SBCT.
Oct 15, 2007
Research Brief
Research Brief
"Connecting the Dots" in Intelligence: Detecting Terrorist Threats in the Out-of-the-Ordinary
Nov 25, 2005
Report
Report
Network-Centric Operations Case Study: Air-to-Air Combat With and Without Link 16
How much of an increase in mission effectiveness does the Link 16 communications system provide in prosecuting air-to-air combat and how can the observed increase in actual performance be attributed to the advantages of network-centric operations?
Mar 22, 2005
Report
Report
Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior
Presents a unique approach to selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat.
Oct 14, 2004