John Hollywood

Overview

Commentary

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  CPD's 'Heat List' and the Dilemma of Predictive Policing

  Predictive policing — the use of computer models to identify areas or people at greater risk of being involved in a serious crime — is yielding results for police. How authorities plan to respond to the data is key.

  Sep 21, 2016 Crain's Chicago Business

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  Predictive Policing: An Effective Tool, but Not a Crystal Ball

  Predictive policing is not an end-all solution, but rather a tool that must be used in concert with other policing resources as part of a broader anti-crime effort. Used properly, predictive policing can predict the risk of future events, but not the events themselves.

  Nov 15, 2013 Government Technology

• Blog

  Can You Help Stop Terror Plots?

  Of the plots foiled in the last 10 years on U.S. soil, the would-be terrorists came from many different ethnic groups. We know of no cases where ethnic profiling helped stop a terrorist plot, write John Hollywood and Kevin J. Strom.

  May 10, 2011 CNN

• Blog

  Alert Public and Cops Foiled the Most Terrorism Schemes

  The recent foiled plot by a naturalized citizen to bomb Washington-area metro stations has national counterterrorism officials warning that the U.S. faces not only risks from abroad, but also homegrown terrorism, write John S. Hollywood and Kevin J. Strom.

  Nov 24, 2010 The Charlotte Observer

Publications

• Report

  Report

  The Justice Innovation Center: Identifying the Needs and Challenges of Criminal Justice Agencies in Small, Rural, Tribal, and Border Areas

  The Justice Innovation Center provides information on technology needs, priorities, and solutions for small, rural, tribal, and border criminal justice agencies. This report summarizes the center's first year of efforts.

  Nov 16, 2016

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  Report

  Using Future Broadband Communications Technologies to Strengthen Law Enforcement

  This report describes the finding of an expert panel convened in September 2015 to discuss how law enforcement can best leverage future communications capabilities anticipated to be fielded over the next 10 to 15 years.

  Sep 26, 2016

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  Report

  Fostering Innovation in the U.S. Court System: Identifying High-Priority Technology and Other Needs for Improving Court Operations and Outcomes

  The U.S. courts sector is challenged by high caseloads, resource constraints, and other trends, and this report seeks to frame an innovation agenda by identifying and prioritizing potential improvements in technology, policy, and practice.

  May 10, 2016

• Draft

  Draft

  Terrorist Plots Against the United States: What We Have Really Faced, and How We Might Best Defend Against It

  Describes the results of an analysis of 150 completed and foiled terrorist plots against the United States from 1995 to 2012 to better understand the true nature of the terrorist threat faced by the United States.

  Mar 8, 2016

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  Report

  Uncertainty-Sensitive Heterogeneous Information Fusion: Assessing Threat with Soft, Uncertain, and Conflicting Evidence

  Presents research on methods for heterogeneous information fusion -- combining data that are qualitative, subjective, fuzzy, ambiguous, contradictory, and even deceptive, in order to form a realistic assessment of threat in a counterterrorism context.

  Feb 1, 2016

• Journal Article

  Journal Article

  Predictions Put Into Practice: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation of Chicago's Predictive Policing Pilot

  In order to better understand the effects of an individual-focused predictive policing program in the field, this study analyzes a pilot program implemented in Chicago in 2013 aimed at reducing gun violence. 

  2016

• Journal Article

  Journal Article

  Using Causal Models in Heterogeneous Information Fusion to Detect Terrorists

  We describe basic research that uses a causal, uncertainty-sensitive computational model rooted in qualitative social science to fuse disparate pieces of threat information.

  Dec 14, 2015

• Draft

  Draft

  Causal Models and Exploratory Analysis in Heterogeneous Information Fusion for Detecting Potential Terrorists

  Describes research fusing heterogeneous information in an effort eventually to detect terrorists, reduce false alarms, and exonerate those falsely identified.

  Nov 17, 2015

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  Report

  Improving Information-Sharing Across Law Enforcement: Why Can't We Know?

  This report addresses ways to increase information-sharing among law enforcement's records management systems, computer-aided dispatch systems, and other key regional, state, and federal information repositories.

  Sep 4, 2015

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  Report

  Using Future Internet Technologies to Strengthen Criminal Justice

  This report discusses the technologies, needs, and overarching themes that were discussed during a RAND-conducted expert panel on the criminal justice community's need to take advantage of (and mitigate threats from) emerging web technologies.

  Aug 17, 2015

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  Report

  Visions of Law Enforcement Technology in the Period 2024-2034: Report of the Law Enforcement Futuring Workshop

  Describes the results of a July 2014 workshop in which a diverse group of law enforcement practitioners explored future visions of law enforcement and identified and prioritized needs in technology, policy, and practice based on those visions.

  Mar 16, 2015

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  Report

  High-Priority Information Technology Needs for Law Enforcement

  This study reports on strategic planning activities undertaken to support the National Institute of Justice in the area of information technology, collecting and analyzing data on law enforcement needs, and identifying potential solutions.

  Jan 19, 2015

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  Report

  Fostering Innovation in Community and Institutional Corrections: Identifying High-Priority Technology and Other Needs for the U.S. Corrections Sector

  The U.S. corrections enterprise is challenged by a variety of demographic, societal, and fiscal trends, and this report seeks to frame an innovation agenda by identifying and prioritizing potential improvements in technology, policy, and practice.

  Jan 6, 2015

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  Report

  Police Department Investments in Information Technology Systems: Challenges Assessing Their Payoff

  As police departments and other public service providers manage reduced budgets, RAND researchers explored the rationale and evidence supporting the idea that IT investments can increase efficiency in policing, and do so cost-effectively.

  Sep 25, 2014

• Report

  Report

  Evaluation of the Shreveport Predictive Policing Experiment

  This report documents an assessment of a predictive policing effort that was conducted to evaluate the crime reduction effects of policing guided by statistical predictions.

  Jul 1, 2014

• Report

  Report

  Evaluation of National Institute of Justice–Funded Geospatial Software Tools: Technical and Utility Assessments to Improve Tool Development, Dissemination, and Usage

  A geospatial software tool-evaluation study assessed 14 recent tool developments funded by the National Institute of Justice. The study integrates input from tool developers and tool users with RAND's independent tool assessments.

  Apr 3, 2014

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  Research Brief

  Predicting Suicide Attacks: Characteristics of Bombings in Israel

  This brief describes an assessment of how geospatial and sociocultural characteristics may help predict the timing and targets of terrorist attacks.

  Nov 7, 2013

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  Research Brief

  Predictive Policing: Forecasting Crime for Law Enforcement

  Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to prevent crime or solve past crimes. A RAND study assessed some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches, offering recommendations for police and developers.

  Oct 14, 2013

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  Report

  Predictive Policing: The Role of Crime Forecasting in Law Enforcement Operations

  Predictive policing is the use of analytical techniques to help prevent crime, solve past crimes, or identify potential offenders and victims. This guide provides assessments of some of the most promising technical tools and tactical approaches.

  Sep 25, 2013

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  Report

  Using EPIC to Find Conflicts, Inconsistencies, and Gaps in Department of Defense Policies

  The authors present a framework and methodology to identify both the roles and responsibilities of those implementing Department of Defense policies and potential conflicts, ambiguities, gaps, inconsistencies, and redundancies in those policies.

  Jun 20, 2013

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  Report

  Predicting Suicide Attacks: Integrating Spatial, Temporal, and Social Features of Terrorist Attack Targets

  Analysis of data on suicide attacks in Israel suggest that assessing sociocultural, political, economic, and demographic factors in addition to the geospatial enhances the ability to predict future suicide attack targets.

  Feb 18, 2013

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  Report

  Keeping Law Enforcement Connected: Information Technology Needs from State and Local Agencies

  RAND researchers interviewed an extensive sample group to assess criminal justice technology priorities at the state and local levels, as well as the means by which agencies at those levels commonly receive information on technology.

  Dec 5, 2012

• Report

  Report

  The Universal Core Information Exchange Framework: Assessing Its Implications for Acquisition Programs

  Universal Core (UCore) 2.0 is a DoD and intelligence community information exchange framework. This report reviews UCore pilot programs and identifies issues to be addressed before UCore implementation is mandated for DoD programs.

  Jun 1, 2011

• Journal Article

  Journal Article

  Building on Clues: Examining Successes and Failures in Detecting U.S. Terrorist Plots, 1999-2009

  This report examines open-source material on 86 foiled and executed terrorist plots against U.S. targets from 1999 to 2009 to determine the types of information and activities that led to (or could have led to) their discovery.

  Oct 1, 2010

• Report

  Report

  Navy/OSD Collaborative Review of Acquisition Policy for DoD C3I and Weapon Programs

  This briefing reviews current U.S. Department of Defense acquisition and requirement policy for ensuring interoperability and information assurance of command, control, communication, intelligence, and weapon systems.

  Nov 12, 2007

• Report

  Report

  Networked Forces in Stability Operations: 101st Airborne Division, 3/2 and 1/25 Stryker Brigades in Northern Iraq

  Compares three Army units that conducted stability operations in the same area in Iraq's northern provinces between 2003 and 2005: the 101st Airborne Division (ABD), the 3/2 Stryker brigade combat team (SBCT), and the 1/25 SBCT.

  Oct 15, 2007

• Research Brief

  Research Brief

  "Connecting the Dots" in Intelligence: Detecting Terrorist Threats in the Out-of-the-Ordinary

  Nov 25, 2005

• Report

  Report

  Network-Centric Operations Case Study: Air-to-Air Combat With and Without Link 16

  How much of an increase in mission effectiveness does the Link 16 communications system provide in prosecuting air-to-air combat and how can the observed increase in actual performance be attributed to the advantages of network-centric operations?

  Mar 22, 2005

• Report

  Report

  Out of the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior

  Presents a unique approach to selecting and assembling disparate pieces of information to produce a general understanding of a threat.

  Oct 14, 2004