From Occurrence to Consequence

Building fires remain a major public safety concern in U.S. cities, threatening lives, property, and critical infrastructure. Despite substantial investments in fire protection, significant disparities persist, underscoring the need for a holistic, data-driven understanding of fire risk. In this work, we analyze more than one million fire incident reports and integrate them with community-level socioeconomic indicators, building inventories, weather conditions, and incident-specific characteristics. Our study makes two key contributions: a comprehensive framework that traces fire risk from occurrence to consequence, and a detailed city-level fire risk ranking system for U.S. cities. By examining the full progression of fire events, we identify structural, environmental, and social drivers that disproportionately endanger communities with older infrastructure and economic disadvantages. Socioeconomic disparities intensify both the frequency and severity of fire incidents, while incident-specific factors, such as ignition sources, ignition locations, and the presence of detectors or automatic extinguishing systems, substantially influence fire outcomes. Lower-risk cities generally exhibit more favorable socioeconomic conditions and a higher prevalence of fire safety features. By pinpointing high-risk communities and targeting critical vulnerabilities, this framework supports strategies that further improve fire safety and foster more resilient cities.