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The nonpolitical impediments to expanding today's Army are well understood. The first bottleneck is training, particularly advanced brigade- and division-level training. After there are sufficient trained brigades to man available equipment, the main impediment would become the ability of the industrial base to produce more equipment. The goals of this research were to develop a framework for studying expandability in the future and to use that framework to study how expandability issues might change. The framework centered around a simplified model of the expansion process and an exploratory modeling environment for parametrically 'wandering around' among plausible futures looking for 'interesting' regions. There were few interesting regions to be found. Said another way, today's expandability issues and impediments are likely to persist in most reasonable futures.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One


  • Chapter Two

    A Framework for Thinking About Expandability

  • Chapter Three

    Expanding the Army's Heavy Divisions Today

  • Chapter Four

    Expanding the Army's Heavy Brigades in the Future

  • Chapter Five

    Costs and Expanding the Army's Heavy Forces in the Future

  • Chapter Six

    Expanding the Army's Light Divisions Today

  • Chapter Seven

    Expanding the Army's Light Brigades in the Future

  • Chapter Eight

    Costs and Expanding the Army's Light Forces in the Future

  • Chapter Nine


  • Appendix A

    Exploratory Modeling

  • Appendix B

    Exploratory Modeling Parameter Values

Research conducted by

The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND's Arroyo Center.

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