Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus

Implications for the U.S. Army

Edited by Olga Oliker, Thomas S. Szayna

Contributors: Tanya Charlick-Paley, Phil Williams, Abraham S. Becker, Sergej Mahnovski, William O'Malley

ResearchPublished 2003

This report identifies and evaluates key faultlines in Central Asia and South Caucasus and how they affect the likelihood and possible evolution of armed conflict in these regions. These faultlines include the role of state political and economic weakness; the impact of crime and the drug trade; the effects of ethnic tensions as well as foreign interests and influence; and the impact of competition over natural resources. The analysis then examines the ways in which the emergence of conflict could draw the United States into the strife and examines the operational challenges that the region poses for possible Army deployments in the 2010-2015 time frame.

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Oliker, Olga and Thomas S. Szayna, eds., Faultlines of Conflict in Central Asia and the South Caucasus: Implications for the U.S. Army. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2003. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1598.html.
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The research described in this report was sponsored by the United States Army and conducted by the RAND Arroyo Center.

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