Re-Estimation of LMS Time-of-Day Module Project

Estimation Results

by Gerard de Jong, Carine Vellay, Marits Pieters, Andrew Daly


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This study for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management has estimated two sets of models of the choice of time of travel, based exclusively on stated preference (SP) data: 1) a detailed model, which represents the choices made by respondents among the varying alternatives presented in the SP exercises, using an error components logit (mixed logit) formulation; 2) a simplified model, which represents choices made by the SP respondents among 11 fixed alternatives defined over a 24-hour day, using models from the General Extreme Value distribution family. The objective of estimating these two sets of models was to obtain the maximum understanding of the circumstances influencing the choice of time-of-day of travel through the detailed models, then to obtain (for the simplified models) formulae which were more closely suited to implementation in the national model system for transport and traffic, LMS. The simplified models exploit the coefficients estimated in the detailed models, but apply an overall scale factor, add alternative-specific constants for the choice of each period on the outbound leg and for the change-mode alternative.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter 1


  • Chapter 2

    Detailed Models

  • Chapter 3

    Elasticity Analysis

  • Chapter 4

    Model with Eleven Time Periods for Implementation in the LMS

  • Chapter 5

    Summary; Further Work on Implementation of Time-Of-Day Models; Conclusions

  • Appendix A

    Detailed Results of Simulations with the Best Detailed Models

  • Appendix B

    List of Variables

  • Appendix C

    List of Estimated Models

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