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RAND Europe has carried out a research project on car ownership modeling, called 'Audit of car ownership models', for the Transport Research Centre (AVV) of the Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management. This report presents a review of existing models for car ownership. The review contains a description and comparison of existing Dutch car ownership models and a review and comparison of recently developed models in the international literature and models used in practice. The report also includes recommendations on directions for potential development for improving the AVV car ownership models. The background of this audit is the desire of AVV to obtain information on the basis of which a well-founded decision can be made on the development of an improved car ownership model that can produce robust and sensible car ownership forecasts for all kinds of variants of variabilisation of the road tax (MRB) and car purchase tax (BPM). As part of this project, a number of policy advisers were interviewed about what types of outputs are required from a car ownership model, what should be the forecasting horizon and what should be the policy variables to be simulated.
Table of Contents
Summary
Preface
All Prefatory Materials
Chapter 1
Introduction
Chapter 2
Description of Facts: Forecasting Air Pollution by Car Traffic Simulation
Chapter 3
Other Car Ownership Models for the Netherlands
Chapter 4
Review of the Recent International Literature
Chapter 5
Typology of Car Ownership Models Including Advantages and Disadvantages
Chapter 6
Outcomes of the Interviews on Requirements for a Car Ownership Model
Chapter 7
Scenarios for Developing a New Car Ownership Model
Chapter 8
Summary and Recommendations on New Car Ownership Model
References
Annex 1
Memo on Interviews with Policy Advisers (In Dutch)
Research conducted by
The research described in this report was performed under the auspices of RAND Europe and was prepared for the Transport Research Center (AVV) of the Netherlands Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.
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