This report presents a simple equilibrium model of the cocaine industry in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia. The purpose of the model is to represent the fundamental economic relations that determine the size of cocaine output and the price of cocaine, and to simulate the effects of policy initiatives or other changes in the surrounding environment. Model results indicate that: "crop substitution" programs will have a negligible impact on the world cocaine market. Cocaine supply control strategies that seize and destroy 70 percent or less of production, without limiting the total level of production, will have little impact on the market. Changes in the size of the world cocaine market have a relatively modest long-run impact on the standard of living of average workers in Peru, Bolivia, and Colombia.
Kennedy, Michael, Peter Reuter, and K. Jack Riley, A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1994. https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR201.html. Also available in print form.
Kennedy, Michael, Peter Reuter, and K. Jack Riley, A Simple Economic Model of Cocaine Production, RAND Corporation, MR-201-USDP, 1994. As of February 15, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/monograph_reports/MR201.html