Cover: Theater Analysis and Modeling in an Era of Uncertainty

Theater Analysis and Modeling in an Era of Uncertainty

The Present and Future of Warfare

Published 1994

by Bruce W. Bennett, Samuel Gardiner, Daniel B. Fox, Nicholas Witney

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Within the U.S. defense community, there is no agreed-upon perception of how warfare is evolving. This report presents the results of war gaming and analysis on the future of warfare. It structures its findings around four issues: (1) warfare will be dominated by uncertainty and variability; (2) adversaries will seek new patterns of warfare to effectively oppose the United States; (3) asymmetrical battles will characterize war; and (4) weapons of mass destruction cast a shadow over almost all future contingencies. It proposes that analysis and modeling must evolve to: (1) reflect the significant differences in the warfare environment that will exist between theaters; (2) focus on strategic and operational events, variations, and uncertainties; (3) adopt a "counter-capabilities" approach to defining military threats; (4) adopt a new approach of developing simple but more comprehensive models; (5) address issues associated with the regional shadow of weapons of mass destruction; and (6) develop new procedures for presenting the uncertainties of analyses to decisionmakers.

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