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With the end of the Cold War, the nature of conflict within states has turned in the direction of ethnic, nationalist, and separatist struggles. The United States, while maintaining its accustomed readiness to deal with interstate conflict, also has a keen interest in preparing for a range of possible interventions in intrastate conflict. This report, the first of a two-volume study, focuses on helping the Army identify the issues and some of the answers associated with the currents and changes in intrastate conflict. (See also the companion volume, MR-554/2-A, which contains supplemental materials.) Its principal contribution is its use of speculative "case studies" of future conflicts that might involve the United States in general and the U.S. Army in particular. This device is intended to help the Army experience the future before it happens by providing insights that may be useful in performing strategic and program planning, updating doctrine, and supporting intervention operations.

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