A Sequential Analysis of the Air Force Officer's Retirement Decision

by Glenn A. Gotz, John McCall


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A stochastic dynamic programming model that explicitly examines the incentives to retire from the military is developed and numerically evaluated. The dynamic program includes the most significant institutional factors affecting an Air Force officer's retirement decision; actual data on promotion probabilities, officer's pay and allowances, and retirement pay are embedded in the model. The Note is a progress report; research generalizing the model presented in this Note will be presented in a future report.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

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