Labor markets and fertility : a demographically disaggregate model of U.S. postwar experience

by William Butz, Michael P. Ward

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Uses time series data on U.S. labor market variables by sex and single years of age and on fertility, to estimate a neoclassical model of the aggregate labor market. The estimated model conforms well with evidence from studies with microdata. The model is used to simulate the effects of aggregate business cycles, cohort size, and schooling attainment on men's and women's employment, hours, wages and earnings, and on fertility. The model is to be used along with existing actuarial models to forecast variables of interest to the Social Security system.

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