Uses time series data on U.S. labor market variables by sex and single years of age and on fertility, to estimate a neoclassical model of the aggregate labor market. The estimated model conforms well with evidence from studies with microdata. The model is used to simulate the effects of aggregate business cycles, cohort size, and schooling attainment on men's and women's employment, hours, wages and earnings, and on fertility. The model is to be used along with existing actuarial models to forecast variables of interest to the Social Security system.
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Note series. The note was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.
Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/research-integrity.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.