Projecting the future for situation assessment and planning : a cognitive analysis

Barbara Hayes-Roth

ResearchPublished 1980

Situation assessment and planning rely heavily on the decisionmaker's ability to project future conditions in the environment and the impact of tentative planned actions on those conditions. This Note presents a cognitive analysis of the future projection process. It identifies three projection strategies--retrieval from experience, formal analysis, and mental simulation--and characterizes their strengths and weaknesses. It also discusses the impact of three general cognitive factors--operation at different levels of abstraction, motivational factors, and attribution problems--on the future projection process. Based on this analysis, the Note proposes a cognitive technology for developing and training effective future projection processes.

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  • Copyright: RAND Corporation
  • Availability: Available
  • Year: 1980
  • Print Format: Paperback
  • Paperback Pages: 47
  • Paperback Price: $23.00
  • Document Number: N-1600-AF

Citation

RAND Style Manual
Hayes-Roth, Barbara, Projecting the future for situation assessment and planning : a cognitive analysis, RAND Corporation, N-1600-AF, 1980. As of September 12, 2024: https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N1600.html
Chicago Manual of Style
Hayes-Roth, Barbara, Projecting the future for situation assessment and planning : a cognitive analysis. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1980. https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N1600.html. Also available in print form.
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