Cover: Projecting the future for situation assessment and planning : a cognitive analysis

Projecting the future for situation assessment and planning : a cognitive analysis

Published 1980

by Barbara Hayes-Roth

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Situation assessment and planning rely heavily on the decisionmaker's ability to project future conditions in the environment and the impact of tentative planned actions on those conditions. This Note presents a cognitive analysis of the future projection process. It identifies three projection strategies--retrieval from experience, formal analysis, and mental simulation--and characterizes their strengths and weaknesses. It also discusses the impact of three general cognitive factors--operation at different levels of abstraction, motivational factors, and attribution problems--on the future projection process. Based on this analysis, the Note proposes a cognitive technology for developing and training effective future projection processes.

This report is part of the RAND note series. The note was a product of RAND from 1979 to 1993 that reported other outputs of sponsored research for general distribution.

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