The Soviet Union and Muslim Guerrilla Wars, 1920-1981

This Note presents an historical analogy that explains, to a large degree, the apparent inability of the Soviet-backed Afghan regimes to defeat the Afghan resistance movements and to govern the population in the wake of the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979. The author contrasts former Soviet successes with current failures in dealing with insurgent Muslim movements and suggests lessons from past experience for contemporary Afghanistan. These lessons show the following formulas for dealing with Muslim guerrilla uprisings to be successful: (1) divide the adversary, using ethnic or religious levers where possible; (2) win over critical native elites, especially the tribal nobility, the traditional religious leadership, and the modern intellectual class; (3) create a strong local Communist Party apparatus; (4) field a Muslim national army; and (5) create a national Communist ideology that takes the most appropriate elements of Marxism-Leninism, synthesizes them with local reality, and portrays itself as a conquering ideology.