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West Asia

Report

Afghanistan in the Era of Fentanyl

Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are displacing heroin in some major drug markets. What might happen to Afghanistan—the world's largest producer of illegal opium poppy—if demand for its opiates dropped off sharply and permanently?

Jul 26, 2021
Commentary

China and the Taliban Begin Their Romance

The upcoming U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will remove the most formidable obstacle to total Taliban takeover of the country. China is set to benefit significantly if the Taliban come to power again. It is worth following this dynamic closely in the coming weeks and months.

Jul 22, 2021
Blog

Paying College Athletes, Preventing Suicide, Planning for Heatwaves: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on a potential step toward paying college athletes, helping college freshmen overcome COVID-19 learning loss, the effects of U.S. sanctions in Syria, more.

Jul 16, 2021
Commentary

The Power and Limits of Threat: The Caesar Syrian Civilian Protection Act at One Year

A powerful new U.S. sanctions law on Syria came into effect one year ago, with great notice and speculation regarding its potential effects. Now, one year later, it is apparent that the act's power lies not in who the United States has sanctioned but in who the United States could sanction.

Jul 8, 2021
Commentary

Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal

History shows that many countries with advanced nuclear technologies but without nuclear bombs opt to stay that way. There are reasons to believe that Iran, too, may choose to remain non-nuclear at least in the foreseeable future.

Jun 28, 2021
Commentary

The Real Tragedy of Israel's Wars in Gaza

Israel's strategy in Gaza of repeatedly cutting back Hamas's military capabilities before it gets strong enough to do Israel any serious harm is known as “mowing the grass.” Unfortunately this approach offers no alternative to continued bloodshed.

Jun 22, 2021
Report

Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

Jun 15, 2021
Report

Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States

The United States can effectively support governance reforms in postconflict states by seizing on opportunities when partner interests align with U.S. interests. And it can use its leverage, including conditions on military and economic assistance, when interests do not align.

Jun 15, 2021
Blog

COVID-19 Disinformation, Biden's Address, Leaving Afghanistan: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Russian and Chinese campaigns to spread malign and subversive information on COVID-19, President Biden's address to Congress, the planned U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and more.

Apr 30, 2021
Blog

Biden's First Address to Congress: Insights from RAND

President Joe Biden addressed a joint session of Congress, summarizing his administration's early COVID-19 response and outlining plans that aim to loosen the pandemic's year-long grip on a weary nation. The speech reflected the fact that the United States faces policy challenges across a wide range of domains.

Apr 29, 2021
Commentary

To Lose a War

The result of a U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan will be a blow to American credibility and a weakening of deterrence and the value of American reassurance elsewhere. It will also result in an increased terrorist threat emanating from the Afghan region, and the distinct possibility of a necessary return there one day under worse conditions.

Apr 26, 2021
Blog

Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.

Apr 23, 2021
Journal Article

Delivering the Promise of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction in Fragile and Conflict-Affected Contexts (FCAC): A Case Study of the NGO GOAL's Response to the Syria Conflict

This paper offers a case study of international NGO GOAL's programming that responds to the protracted crisis in Syria, with critical discussion on SFDRR and how to adapt humanitarian relief and disaster resilience.

Apr 22, 2021
Commentary

China Does Not Have to Be America's Enemy in the Middle East

China and Iran made a deal in which China promised to boost its investment in Iranian infrastructure in exchange for a steady supply of oil. This uptick in Chinese influence does not necessarily erode U.S. power in the region. The United States may even find overlapping interests with China since both have a stake in containing conflicts and instability.

Apr 19, 2021
Blog

COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the pandemic is shaping demographic trends, targeting vaccines to "high-contact" people, the Iran Threat Network, and more.

Apr 16, 2021
Commentary

The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions

Iran is blaming Israel for a blackout at one of its nuclear research facilities. This attack is likely to complicate nuclear diplomacy and further erode trust between Tehran and Washington. Also, it may only incentivize Iran to advance its nuclear program.

Apr 14, 2021
Report

Understanding the Iran Threat Network

The Iran Threat Network is a formidable force of tens of thousands of fighters from non-Iranian, nonstate proxy and partner groups. How does this network factor into Tehran's political and military strategy?

Apr 14, 2021
Commentary

Congressional Options to Advance Peace in Yemen

An enduring peace in Yemen will require addressing Yemen's most immediate needs while working to develop its economic, political, and security institutions. U.S. lawmakers have the tools to help shape this effort and could help end the conflict and bring stability to Yemen.

Mar 29, 2021
Commentary

Abraham Accords Offer Historic Opportunity to Spur Mideast Growth

The Abraham Accords have heralded a dramatic shift in the relationship between Israel and the Muslim nations of the world. While these accords represent a major political breakthrough, they also represent a possible new chapter in the region's development: away from conflict and toward a shared economic vision of prosperity.

Mar 25, 2021
Multimedia

Voices From the Middle East

Shira Efron, coauthor of the RAND study Alternatives in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict, describes several surprising findings from the report.

Mar 23, 2021

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