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Persian Gulf Region

The Persian Gulf region — which includes Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq — contains an estimated 50 percent of the world's oil reserves and thus plays a strategic geopolitical role. RAND has a strong presence in and focus on the region, with an office in Doha, focusing primarily on domestic and regional issues such as education and development and on assisting U.S. and allied military forces in the region.

Blog

Australia's Fires, Artificial Intelligence, Fentanyl: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Australia's devastating fires, how artificial intelligence could manipulate the masses, the fentanyl crisis, and more.

Jan 24, 2020
Commentary

The Politics of Man-Hunting and the Illusion of Victory

Captures and strikes are important accomplishments and the countless nameless professionals who carry them out deserve the credit for executing them. But leaders are charged with something larger and should be judged by a higher standard: namely, seeing beyond the illusion and producing actual strategic victories.

Jan 22, 2020
Commentary

Iran Claws Back Its Regional Influence

Last year, Iran faced protests at home as well as in Iraq and Lebanon, where thousands rallied against Tehran's regional hegemony. But with its recent machinations and the fallout over the killing of Soleimani, Iran has succeeded in changing the regional conversation.

Jan 17, 2020
Blog

Iran, Mental Health and Jail, Russia: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Iran and Iraq following the killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, supporting those experiencing mental illness in jails, Russia's hostile measures, and more.

Jan 10, 2020
Commentary

How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?

Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.

Jan 7, 2020
Commentary

All-Out U.S.-Iran War Is Unlikely. But Low-Level War Expected to Continue

Iranian retaliation for Soleimani's killing and counter-retaliation by the United States seem likely. But Tehran and Washington have good reasons to inflict limited pain without engaging in a full-scale war.

Jan 6, 2020
Commentary

Iraq's Vote to Expel U.S. Troops Is Iran's True Victory

If American soldiers are ejected from Iraq, the consequences may be far-reaching and damaging to U.S. strategic interests. What options remain to reset the relationship between Washington and Baghdad?

Jan 6, 2020
Commentary

Can Iraq Evict U.S. Forces?

The Iraqi parliament voted to expel U.S. troops from Iraq. This vote was nonbinding, and the Iraqi caretaker government cannot pass laws, but it does indicate that a majority in parliament wants U.S. forces to leave.

Jan 6, 2020
Commentary

Baghdad Siege Wasn't Benghazi, and Never Will Be

Given the heightened tension between the United States and Iran and the ongoing instability in Iraq, the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad may very well be attacked again. If such an attack were to be successful, it would be more akin to the fall of the U.S. Embassy in Saigon than the U.S. mission in Benghazi.

Jan 6, 2020
Blog

Iranian Commander Soleimani Killed: RAND Experts React

The White House has confirmed that a U.S. airstrike authorized by President Trump killed Iranian Major General Qassem Soleimani just outside the Baghdad airport in Iraq. We've rounded up how RAND researchers reacted to the news.

Jan 3, 2020
Blog

Most Popular RAND Blog Commentary of 2019

Terrorism. The humanitarian crisis at the border. How to engage friends and foes on the world stage. Here are the top 10 commentaries that readers engaged with most on The RAND Blog in 2019.

Dec 23, 2019
Commentary

Iraq at the Crossroads

The protests gripping Iraq pose an extraordinary challenge to Baghdad's political leadership, which must move the country ahead or step aside. Unless it finds the will to compromise for the common good, the governing class could risk thrusting the country into civil war.

Dec 18, 2019
Blog

How Americans Get the News, Iran, Caregiving: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how Americans consume the news, U.S.–Iranian relations, how federal disability payments help caregivers, and more.

Dec 13, 2019
Commentary

Understanding Iran's Nuclear Escalation Strategy

Throughout 2019, Iran has gradually reduced its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. What are its goals in doing this? Why has it adopted this strategy? And perhaps most importantly, how far does Iran intend to go?

Dec 12, 2019
Commentary

Don't Expect a Thaw in Iran

Iran's recent protests could mark the beginning of a new chapter in Iran's domestic politics. Whatever happens inside the country, though, it will not likely change Iran's foreign policy.

Dec 11, 2019
Blog

Hong Kong, Reducing Crime, Medical Marijuana: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on what the U.S. can do about Hong Kong, reducing crime in Chicago, medical marijuana, and more.

Dec 6, 2019
Commentary

With Chaos in the Streets of Iran, Here's How the United States Could Help the Iranian People

The Iranian people deserve American support. But current U.S. policies are hurting the cause that Iranians are fighting for while failing to achieve any strategic objectives.

Dec 3, 2019
Blog

Medicare, Climate Change, 'Superbugs': RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on opening Medicare to Americans at age 50, how to assess climate change plans, antibiotic-resistant "superbugs," and more.

Nov 22, 2019
Commentary

The Arab Spring in the Upside-Down

Where the original Arab Spring protests removed authoritarian leaders, the current demonstrators in Iraq and Lebanon are trying to topple popularly elected governments. This could have dramatic implications for the future of representative democracy in the Middle East.

Nov 21, 2019
Commentary

Don't Overestimate the Power of Iraqi Protests

As protests in Iraq grow, a “good news” narrative seems to be developing that they are a significant blow to Iranian influence. But the bigger story is not who is up and who is down between Washington and Tehran; it is that yet another Arab public has taken to the streets demanding change.

Nov 14, 2019

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