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Persian Gulf Region

The Persian Gulf region — which includes Iran, Oman, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Iraq — contains an estimated 50 percent of the world's oil reserves and thus plays a strategic geopolitical role. RAND has a strong presence in and focus on the region, with an office in Doha, focusing primarily on domestic and regional issues such as education and development and on assisting U.S. and allied military forces in the region.

Commentary

Could America Use Its Leverage to Alter the Saudis' Behavior?

As the Saudis' chief political and military partner and the undisputed security guarantor in the Middle East, the United States has considerable influence it can wield over Saudi decisionmaking. The Trump administration could consider using its influence to encourage Saudi leadership to moderate its assertive and damaging policies abroad.

Nov 15, 2018
Commentary

Is Major Realignment Taking Place in the Middle East?

The shifting alignments in the Middle East have intensified since the murder of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. Turkey has drifted away from NATO and toward Iran and Russia. Like Tehran and Moscow, Ankara is now more anti-Western than at any point in recent memory. What does this mean for the United States?

Oct 31, 2018
Commentary

The Khashoggi Case and the Cost of Subcontracting U.S. Policy

Following the killing of the Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the United States needs to, at minimum, return toward a distinctly American policy toward the Middle East, one which can be distinguished from that of its local partners.

Oct 23, 2018
Commentary

America's Indefinite Endgame in Syria

The Trump administration's position on the Syrian civil war has shifted from countering ISIS to containing Iran. America will remain in Syria as long as Iran does. But an unending timetable for the withdrawal of troops is far more problematic for Washington than it is for Tehran.

Oct 16, 2018
Commentary

ISIS's New Plans to Get Rich and Wreak Havoc

Although the Islamic State has lost nearly 98 percent of the territory it once controlled, it is ripe for a comeback in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq and Syria. The group has proven that it is capable of making money even without controlling large population centers.

Oct 10, 2018
Commentary

Why We Should Measure the Economic Impact of Terrorism in the Middle East

Though physical impacts of terrorism in the Middle East should be the main focus of counterterrorism efforts, financial impacts should not be ignored. Officials could help mitigate devastating economic effects by identifying and protecting essential regional revenue streams like tourism and oil.

Sep 24, 2018
Commentary

Can U.S. Pressure Lead to a New Iran Nuclear Deal?

It could be a mistake for the United States to assume that more pressure will bring Iran closer to ending or reducing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. When it comes to measures aimed at Iran's nuclear program, more pressure could worsen nuclear risks and further drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies.

Sep 18, 2018
Report

Preparing for Post-ISIL Access Challenges

As the conflict against ISIL enters a new phase, a stronger basing posture against adversary networks in and around Syria and the Sinai Peninsula is needed. U.S. Central Command must plan for the possibility of losing access to Iraqi bases and airspace. An interactive tool can help identify robust basing options.

Sep 10, 2018
Multimedia

An Overview of Current Trends in Terrorism and Illicit Finance

An overview of testimony by Colin P. Clarke presented before the House Financial Services Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism and Illicit Finance on September 7, 2018.

Sep 7, 2018
Testimony

Current Trends in Terrorist Financing

How do terrorists generate income? And how might ISIS, the wealthiest group in history, seek to use its funds to make a comeback? Terrorist financing has evolved, making it difficult to counter. But these efforts must continue to keep ISIS isolated from external patrons and state sponsors.

Sep 7, 2018
Report

Blaming Sunni-Shi'a Split for Middle East Unrest Is Too Simplistic

Policy decisions are being made based on the assumption that the Middle East is riven by a purely dualistic sectarian war between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. While sectarianism is relevant, geopolitical competition, local disputes, and political rivalries are the core drivers of conflict in countries like Iraq and Syria.

Aug 30, 2018
Commentary

Iran's Disinformation Campaigns

New reports suggest that the Kremlin may have company in its efforts to shape the United States' domestic information landscape: Iran. As Americans prepare to return to the voting booths this fall, Washington would be well advised to look into Iran's disinformation capabilities and intentions.

Aug 24, 2018
Multimedia

Making Victory Count: Stabilizing Mosul

RAND researchers Shelly Culbertson and Linda Robinson visited Iraq nine months after the Battle of Mosul to gauge the progress being made in rebuilding and stabilizing the region. In the aftermath of combat operations against ISIS, what are the critical requirements for achieving lasting stability and the resumption of city life in Mosul?

Aug 21, 2018
Commentary

The Growing Risk of a New Middle East War

Escalating clashes between Israeli and Iranian forces in Syria have demonstrably increased the risk of a new, large-scale regional conflict that would likely involve the U.S. military. Tehran's continued provocations and violations of Israel's stated red lines are fueling escalation with the potential to rapidly spin out of control.

Aug 21, 2018
Commentary

Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help America?

What happens if leaving the Iran nuclear deal and applying “maximum pressure” doesn't lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse? The Trump administration may find that it's much easier to break a deal than to replace it with something better.

Aug 7, 2018
Commentary

Regime Change in Iran: Watch What You Ask For

Mike Pompeo's speech in May signaled a desire for regime change in Iran, but the U.S. will have to change its approach to shape a positive outcome. This could involve targeting sanctions more narrowly rather than seeking to impoverish the general population. And lifting the ban on Iranian visitors to the U.S. would be a good start.

Aug 2, 2018
Commentary

Time to Make a Deal on Syria

U.S. leverage is much diminished by the Assad regime's recent gains but there are still opportunities for Washington and Russia to achieve a settlement that preserves some U.S. interests. These include maintaining the gains made against the Islamic State and constraining Iranian influence in Syria.

Jul 10, 2018
Report

Report

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment

An examination of the evolution of both allied and adversary use of information power, alongside a comparative analysis of capability areas in which these others excel, can guide future U.S. Army force planning.

Jun 7, 2018
Report

Report

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment: Case Studies

Twelve detailed case studies examine of the activities and strategic goals of allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries in and through the information environment, highlighting insights for U.S. Army planning.

Jun 7, 2018
Commentary

Assessing Transatlantic Fallout After the U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Nuclear Deal

The U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal has set off another round of reflection on the state and future of the transatlantic alliance. Though this dispute may not in itself lead to a full breach in the transatlantic relationship, it joins a growing list of sharp disagreements impacting U.S. alliances.

May 31, 2018

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