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Afghanistan

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Afghanistan has long been a crossroads of world cultures, economies, politics, and militaries. RAND's early research on Afghanistan examined the 1980s Soviet military campaign and the subsequent fundamentalist Islamic regime. Since Operation Enduring Freedom, the 2001 U.S. military effort to rout the Taliban and find Osama bin Ladin's Al Qaeda network, RAND has engaged the new Afghan government, military, and people to support reconstruction, counterinsurgency, and nation-building efforts.

Q&A

Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers

Aug 17, 2021

The sudden end to America's longest war came as the Taliban rolled into Kabul and the government collapsed. RAND researchers share their thoughts on how to help displaced Afghans, whether the country could again become a safe haven for terrorists, and the geopolitical implications of the collapse.
Commentary

China and the Taliban Begin Their Romance

Jul 22, 2021

China is set to benefit significantly from a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. It's worth following this dynamic closely in the coming weeks and months.

Explore Afghanistan

Commentary

Reopening Old Wounds: Two Stories, One Lesson

The shocking events unfolding in Ukraine serve as a vivid reminder to two RAND researchers of the profoundly human consequences tied to the strategic level of decisionmaking they study and weigh in on each day.

Apr 16, 2022
Blog

RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021

Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.

Dec 21, 2021
Commentary

Complex Calculations Shape Pakistan-TTP Negotiations

Pakistan sees the Taliban as a facilitator of discussions with the TTP, as an ally in persuading the TTP to negotiate, and as a guarantor of whatever agreement is reached. And given the Taliban's diplomatic isolation and desperate economic situation, Pakistan can in return assist Afghanistan's new rulers in gaining acceptance and aid.

Dec 20, 2021
Commentary

It's Time for the West to Engage with the Taliban

As a winter crisis looms, the Afghan people need support more than ever. Economic collapse and isolation risk provoking deeper instability, insecurity, and repression. The international community should now look seriously at making a deal with the Taliban to address these risks.

Dec 17, 2021
Commentary

Afghan Refugees Are Being Recruited to Join an Iranian Paramilitary

As Western policymakers consider how to deal with Afghan evacuees, including former members of the Afghan security forces, they might consider how to prevent adversaries such as Iran from recruiting Afghan refugees for dangerous and destabilizing operations. Greater attention to these risks may become increasingly important as refugee flows from Afghanistan continue.

Nov 23, 2021
Commentary

Negotiating with TTP—A Different Perspective

America's withdrawal and the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan could be a primary force in shaping the trajectory of the continuing armed struggle with Pakistan's Taliban. It may be time for Islamabad to consider whether to renew efforts aimed at reaching a political settlement.

Oct 27, 2021
Commentary

Reconsidering U.S. Decisionmaking Within NATO After the Fall of Kabul

With NATO, the United States often tries to have it all: U.S. leadership of the alliance and increased allied burden-sharing. But the recent experience in Afghanistan shows how the form U.S. leadership takes can frustrate allies. Prioritizing allied preferences would help to preserve alliance unity and maybe even strengthen burden-sharing.

Oct 25, 2021
Multimedia

Afghanistan’s Refugee Crisis: Forty Years in the Making

RAND senior policy researcher Shelly Culbertson discusses the history and current state of Afghanistan's refugee crisis.

Oct 13, 2021
Blog

Four-Day School Weeks, Domestic Terrorism, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the trade-offs of a four-day school week, how to counter domestic violent extremism, racial disparities in who is convicted of more-serious speeding charges, and more.

Oct 8, 2021
Commentary

The Big Unanswered Question of the Afghanistan War

The United States' war in Afghanistan may be over, but the debate over the legacy of America's longest war has just begun. The U.S. defeat raises many questions. For the future of American defense strategy, one big question perhaps stands out above all: Does the United States still have the grit necessary to fight and win long wars?

Oct 4, 2021
Blog

China-Pakistan Partnership, Media Literacy, Incarcerated Parents: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the China-Pakistan partnership in light of the Taliban's rise to power, media literacy education, parenting from prison, and more.

Sep 24, 2021
Commentary

China and Pakistan See Eye to Eye on the Taliban—Almost

Beijing and Islamabad share a long history of cooperation and have much in common on Afghanistan. Both are poised to benefit strategically from the Taliban's success. But the Taliban's resurrection almost certainly will add some stress to an otherwise positive and productive bilateral partnership.

Sep 21, 2021
Blog

Boosting Vaccine Acceptance, Afghanistan's Refugee Crisis, Environmental Racism: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing vaccine hesitancy, preventing an even-bigger humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and how to develop antiracist environmental policies.

Sep 10, 2021
Journal Article

Can a Pragmatic Relationship With the Taliban Help Russia Counter Terrorism?

Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.

Sep 8, 2021
Commentary

With the Evacuation Over, Afghanistan Is Left to Contend with a Worsening Refugee Crisis

The more than 100,000 civilians recently evacuated from Afghanistan are a small fraction of those who have lost their homes and livelihoods due to war. To avoid worsening the existing humanitarian crisis, the global community should take swift action, including close coordination with regional and national players.

Sep 7, 2021
Commentary

Lessons from Afghanistan

The British invaded Afghanistan multiple times from 1839 to 1919. These wars offer wider context for understanding America's intervention in that same nation—and its ultimate failure.

Sep 3, 2021
Commentary

Reinforcing U.S. Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific After the Fall of Afghanistan

China and North Korea are seizing on the U.S. departure from Afghanistan to press their own political warfare messages. What can the United States do to mitigate the impact of the Taliban takeover on America's interests in the Indo-Pacific?

Sep 3, 2021
Blog

U.S. Failure in Afghanistan, Critical Race Theory Bans, Income Inequality: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how early mistakes led to America's failure in Afghanistan, the potential effects of critical race theory bans, an art installation that breaks down RAND data on income inequality, and more.

Sep 3, 2021
Commentary

Afghanistan Was Lost Long Ago

The United States failed to build a lasting state in Afghanistan. Although the mission was not doomed from the start, early miscalculations and critical mistakes made success unlikely.

Aug 30, 2021
Blog

Just How Many Lives the Vaccines Have Saved, Afghanistan, Unemployment: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the number of lives saved during the early U.S. vaccination effort, what leaving Afghanistan says about other U.S. commitments, global competition for virtual-reality dominance, and more.

Aug 27, 2021

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