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Afghanistan

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Afghanistan has long been a crossroads of world cultures, economies, politics, and militaries. RAND's early research on Afghanistan examined the 1980s Soviet military campaign and the subsequent fundamentalist Islamic regime. Since Operation Enduring Freedom, the 2001 U.S. military effort to rout the Taliban and find Osama bin Ladin's Al Qaeda network, RAND has engaged the new Afghan government, military, and people to support reconstruction, counterinsurgency, and nation-building efforts.

Report
U.S. Policy Toward the Taliban: Engage, Isolate, or Oppose?
With the Taliban's takeover of Afghanistan and a growing humanitarian crisis, the United States faces several policy options. While isolation is the usual response to an unwelcome regime change, engagement offers the only prospect to advance U.S. interests in the country, mainly counterterrorism and humanitarian relief.
May 26, 2022
Commentary
Afghan Refugees Are Being Recruited to Join an Iranian Paramilitary
As Western policymakers consider how to deal with Afghan evacuees, including former members of the Afghan security forces, they might consider how to prevent adversaries such as Iran from recruiting Afghan refugees for dangerous and destabilizing operations. Greater attention to these risks may become increasingly important as refugee flows from Afghanistan continue.
Nov 23, 2021

Explore Afghanistan

Report
Comparing Taliban Social Media Usage by Language: Who's Speaking and What's Being Said
Focusing on the economy, relationships with other militant groups and neighboring countries, and women's status in Afghan society, the authors examined whether Taliban social media messaging across various regional languages was similar or different.
Apr 25, 2023
Blog
A Look Back at the War in Afghanistan, National Secuirty Risks, Hospice Care: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why the United States “stayed the unfavorable course” in Afghanistan, the Ohio train derailment, state data on gun deaths, and more.
Mar 3, 2023
Report
The Bureaucratic Inertia of U.S. Afghanistan Policy
The U.S. policy goal of preventing Afghanistan from becoming a haven for terrorists remained constant for 20 years even as the dynamics of the war and the will of the policymaking community changed and there was no apparent hope of military victory. Why?
Feb 21, 2023
Report
Assessing the Prospects for Great Power Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific across seven issues, including securing a free and open Indo-Pacific and the denuclearization of North Korea.
Feb 20, 2023
Commentary
The Question of Succession in Al-Qaida
Two months after the death of al Qaida leader Aymin al-Zawahiri, experts continue to debate potential contenders for his replacement while waiting for al-Qaeda to make an announcement. A dark horse contender with long ties to Osama bin Laden could upend predictions and threaten to revive one of history's most lethal terrorist groups.
Sep 29, 2022
Blog
Our New CEO, Algorithmic Bias, Equity in the Workplace: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on what RAND’s new president and CEO envisions for the future, addressing bias in health care algorithms, creating equitable change in the workplace, and more.
Aug 5, 2022
Commentary
After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan
The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.
Aug 3, 2022
Blog
Gun Policy, China and Taiwan, Russian Propaganda: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on reducing America's unacceptably high rates of gun violence, what would happen if China “quarantines” Taiwan, and Russia's “firehose of falsehood.”
May 27, 2022
Commentary
Reopening Old Wounds: Two Stories, One Lesson
The shocking events unfolding in Ukraine have reopened old wounds for two RAND researchers. Their personal stories stand as testaments that the traumas inflicted by Russia's war on Ukraine will echo for decades to come.
Apr 16, 2022
Blog
RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021
Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.
Dec 21, 2021
Commentary
Complex Calculations Shape Pakistan-TTP Negotiations
Pakistan sees the Taliban as a facilitator of discussions with the TTP, as an ally in persuading the TTP to negotiate, and as a guarantor of whatever agreement is reached. And given the Taliban's diplomatic isolation and desperate economic situation, Pakistan can in return assist Afghanistan's new rulers in gaining acceptance and aid.
Dec 20, 2021
Commentary
It's Time for the West to Engage with the Taliban
As a winter crisis looms, the Afghan people need support more than ever. Economic collapse and isolation risk provoking deeper instability, insecurity, and repression. The international community should now look seriously at making a deal with the Taliban to address these risks.
Dec 17, 2021
Commentary
Negotiating with TTP—A Different Perspective
America's withdrawal and the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan could be a primary force in shaping the trajectory of the continuing armed struggle with Pakistan's Taliban. It may be time for Islamabad to consider whether to renew efforts aimed at reaching a political settlement.
Oct 27, 2021
Commentary
Reconsidering U.S. Decisionmaking Within NATO After the Fall of Kabul
With NATO, the United States often tries to have it all: U.S. leadership of the alliance and increased allied burden-sharing. But the recent experience in Afghanistan shows how the form U.S. leadership takes can frustrate allies. Prioritizing allied preferences would help to preserve alliance unity and maybe even strengthen burden-sharing.
Oct 25, 2021
Multimedia
Afghanistan’s Refugee Crisis: Forty Years in the Making
RAND senior policy researcher Shelly Culbertson discusses the history and current state of Afghanistan's refugee crisis.
Oct 13, 2021
Blog
Four-Day School Weeks, Domestic Terrorism, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the trade-offs of a four-day school week, how to counter domestic violent extremism, racial disparities in who is convicted of more-serious speeding charges, and more.
Oct 8, 2021
Commentary
The Big Unanswered Question of the Afghanistan War
The United States' war in Afghanistan may be over, but the debate over the legacy of America's longest war has just begun. The U.S. defeat raises many questions. For the future of American defense strategy, one big question perhaps stands out above all: Does the United States still have the grit necessary to fight and win long wars?
Oct 4, 2021
Blog
China-Pakistan Partnership, Media Literacy, Incarcerated Parents: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the China-Pakistan partnership in light of the Taliban's rise to power, media literacy education, parenting from prison, and more.
Sep 24, 2021

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Researcher Spotlight

Arturo Munoz

Senior Political Scientist

Arturo Munoz is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. Prior to joining RAND, Munoz served 29 years at the Central Intelligence Agency, both in the Directorate of Operations and in the Directorate of Intelligence. He created successful counterterrorism, counterinsurgency, and…
Daniel Elinoff

Defense Analyst

Daniel M. Elinoff is a defense and homeland security analyst at the RAND Corporation, where he works in security cooperation, strategic planning, workforce development, disaster recovery, and homeland security policy. He came to RAND from the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), where he…

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