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Afghanistan

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Afghanistan has long been a crossroads of world cultures, economies, politics, and militaries. RAND's early research on Afghanistan examined the 1980s Soviet military campaign and the subsequent fundamentalist Islamic regime. Since Operation Enduring Freedom, the 2001 U.S. military effort to rout the Taliban and find Osama bin Ladin's Al Qaeda network, RAND has engaged the new Afghan government, military, and people to support reconstruction, counterinsurgency, and nation-building efforts.

Q&A

Collapse in Afghanistan: Early Insights from RAND Researchers

Aug 17, 2021

The sudden end to America's longest war came as the Taliban rolled into Kabul and the government collapsed. RAND researchers share their thoughts on how to help displaced Afghans, whether the country could again become a safe haven for terrorists, and the geopolitical implications of the collapse.
Commentary

China and the Taliban Begin Their Romance

Jul 22, 2021

China is set to benefit significantly from a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan. It's worth following this dynamic closely in the coming weeks and months.

Explore Afghanistan

Blog

Boosting Vaccine Acceptance, Afghanistan's Refugee Crisis, Environmental Racism: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on addressing vaccine hesitancy, preventing an even-bigger humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan, and how to develop antiracist environmental policies.

Sep 10, 2021
Journal Article

Can a Pragmatic Relationship With the Taliban Help Russia Counter Terrorism?

Neither the United States nor Russia wants to see Afghanistan become a haven for international terrorist groups. For now, Russia is taking a pragmatic approach to the Taliban in that it has a relationship with the group that the United States does not.

Sep 8, 2021
Commentary

With the Evacuation Over, Afghanistan Is Left to Contend with a Worsening Refugee Crisis

The more than 100,000 civilians recently evacuated from Afghanistan are a small fraction of those who have lost their homes and livelihoods due to war. To avoid worsening the existing humanitarian crisis, the global community should take swift action, including close coordination with regional and national players.

Sep 7, 2021
Commentary

Lessons from Afghanistan

The British invaded Afghanistan multiple times from 1839 to 1919. These wars offer wider context for understanding America's intervention in that same nation—and its ultimate failure.

Sep 3, 2021
Commentary

Reinforcing U.S. Deterrence in the Indo-Pacific After the Fall of Afghanistan

China and North Korea are seizing on the U.S. departure from Afghanistan to press their own political warfare messages. What can the United States do to mitigate the impact of the Taliban takeover on America's interests in the Indo-Pacific?

Sep 3, 2021
Blog

U.S. Failure in Afghanistan, Critical Race Theory Bans, Income Inequality: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how early mistakes led to America's failure in Afghanistan, the potential effects of critical race theory bans, an art installation that breaks down RAND data on income inequality, and more.

Sep 3, 2021
Commentary

Afghanistan Was Lost Long Ago

The United States failed to build a lasting state in Afghanistan. Although the mission was not doomed from the start, early miscalculations and critical mistakes made success unlikely.

Aug 30, 2021
Blog

Just How Many Lives the Vaccines Have Saved, Afghanistan, Unemployment: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the number of lives saved during the early U.S. vaccination effort, what leaving Afghanistan says about other U.S. commitments, global competition for virtual-reality dominance, and more.

Aug 27, 2021
Commentary

Chinese Recognition of the Taliban Is All but Inevitable

China is likely to recognize and legitimize the new leadership in Afghanistan within the coming weeks or months. Even if China has real concerns about the Taliban's willingness to keep its promises, the potential benefits are simply too great for Beijing to ignore.

Aug 27, 2021
Commentary

After Afghanistan, Could Russia Misjudge America?

Over the years the United States has been humbled abroad more than once but bounced back. Now, as the United States withdraws from Afghanistan, might Russia see the United States as defeated and vulnerable to pressure? This could be an error.

Aug 26, 2021
Commentary

Afghanistan Withdrawal Says Little About U.S. Commitments Elsewhere

The United States is a nation which sees that it is in its vital interest to deter autocrats from adventurism and challenges to the world order. Drawing lessons from the narrow case of Afghanistan to speak about broad U.S. resolve or credibility comes with an inherent risk that adversaries may choose to ignore at their own peril.

Aug 25, 2021
Blog

Insights on Afghanistan, Back to School, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the collapse in Afghanistan, what parents think about sending kids back to school, insights from game theory on North Korean denuclearization, and more.

Aug 20, 2021
Commentary

Applying Machiavellian Discourses to the Wars in Afghanistan and Iraq

After 20 years of war without victory in both Afghanistan and Iraq, it is time to derive key lessons from both conflicts to avoid repeating the same mistakes. Niccolò Machiavelli, whose insights on statecraft have endured for five centuries, is a valuable guide in analyzing those lessons.

Aug 9, 2021
Blog

Historic Lynchings and Voter Registration, China in Space, Firefighters' Mental Health: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the link between historic lynchings and voter registration, Afghanistan in the era of fentanyl, supporting firefighters’ mental health, and more.

Jul 30, 2021
Report

Afghanistan in the Era of Fentanyl

Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids are displacing heroin in some major drug markets. What might happen to Afghanistan—the world's largest producer of illegal opium poppy—if demand for its opiates dropped off sharply and permanently?

Jul 26, 2021
Report

Securing Gains in Fragile States: Using U.S. Leverage in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Beyond

This report evaluates U.S. options for stabilizing conflict-affected states by incentivizing governance reforms through military and development assistance in the context of U.S. military interventions.

Jun 15, 2021
Report

Using U.S. Leverage to Limit Instability in Fragile States

The United States can effectively support governance reforms in postconflict states by seizing on opportunities when partner interests align with U.S. interests. And it can use its leverage, including conditions on military and economic assistance, when interests do not align.

Jun 15, 2021
Blog

COVID-19 Disinformation, Biden's Address, Leaving Afghanistan: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on Russian and Chinese campaigns to spread malign and subversive information on COVID-19, President Biden's address to Congress, the planned U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, and more.

Apr 30, 2021

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