Research Brief
Little in Common
Feb 20, 2023
This report, part of a four-part series, describes the potential for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific on seven issues: securing a free and open Indo-Pacific, ensuring the defense of key allies and partners, expanding cooperation with new partners in Southeast Asia, ensuring peace in the Taiwan Strait, achieving the denuclearization of North Korea, countering terrorism, and deepening U.S. geostrategic ties with India.
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Can the United States find ways to cooperate with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific, either to temper geopolitical rivalry or as a strategy to use cooperation with one of the two countries as an advantage against the other? Using official U.S., Chinese, and Russian policy documents, leadership statements, and other sources, the authors of this report assess the prospects for great power cooperation on seven issues: securing a free and open Indo-Pacific, ensuring the defense of key allies and partners, expanding cooperation with new partners in Southeast Asia, ensuring peace in the Taiwan Strait, achieving the denuclearization of North Korea, countering terrorism, and deepening U.S. geostrategic ties with India.
The authors find that, because of the divergence in the three countries' strategic views and policy goals, there is little room for U.S. cooperation with China or Russia in the Indo-Pacific. This implies that cooperation in order to tamp down competitive pressures or to drive wedges between Beijing and Moscow is an unpromising approach to managing ties or competition with these great powers. Instead, the United States will be better off focusing on preparations for long-term competition than striving to turn Beijing and Moscow against each other. This research was completed in September 2020, before the February 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and before the U.S. military withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. It has not been subsequently revised.
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
American, Chinese, and Russian Objectives in the Indo-Pacific
Chapter Three
Maintaining a Peaceful and Open Regional Order
Chapter Four
Promoting and Preserving Regional Alliances
Chapter Five
Expanding Strategic Cooperation with Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam
Chapter Six
Managing Cross-Strait Differences Between China and Taiwan
Chapter Seven
Achieving the Denuclearization of North Korea
Chapter Eight
Countering Terrorism and Violent Islamist Extremism in Afghanistan and Southeast Asia
Chapter Nine
India's Regional Role and Strategic Orientation
Chapter Ten
Conclusions and Recommendations
The research reported here was commissioned by Headquarters Air Force A-5 Strategy Section and conducted within the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE.
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